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Evaluation of Russia’s GDP in 2017 with the Help of Decomposition Rates of Growth

Andrey Kaukin – Head of Department for System Analysis of Sectoral Markets, Institute of Industry and Markets Infrastructures, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration; Head of Sectoral Markets and Infrastructure Department of the Gaidar Institute, Candidate of Economic Sciences. Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Pavel Pavlov – Senior Research fellow of the Department for System Analysis of Sectoral Markets, Institute of Industry and Markets Infrastructures, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration. E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Decomposition of Russian GDP growth rates has been performed to assess conditions that would enable Russia to achieve economic growth rates surpassing the worldwide average. In 2017, the contribution of fundamental factors of production (labour, capital, total factor productivity) to Russian GDP growth rates was about 0.5–0.9 percentage points. On the other hand, a negative contribution of -0.8(-0.9) percentage points was made by global price environment for crude oil. In 2017, the biggest contribution of 1.4–1.9 percentage points to Russian GDP growth rates came from business cycle factors.

Key words: GDP, decomposition of GDP growth rates, fundamental production factors, global oil price situation and business cycle.