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Russia’s Balance of Payments in Q2 2018

Alexandra Bozhechkova – Head of Monetary Policy Department of the Gaidar Institute; Senior Research fellow of the Center for the Study of Central Banks, Institute for Applied Economic Studies, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences. Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Alexander Knobel – Head of Foreign Trade Department, Center for Real Sector of the Gaidar Institute; Director of the Center for Foreign Trade Department, Institute for Applied Economic Studies, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences. Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Anastasia Lavrischeva – Postgraduate Student, Chair of Microeconomics Economics Faculty, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration. E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Pavel Trunin – Head of Center for Macroeconomics and Finance of the Gaidar Institute; Leading Research fellow of the Center for the Study of Central Banks, Institute for Applied Economic Studies, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences. Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

The Russian current account balance rose in Q2 2018 year-on-year on the back of, among other things, rising positive balance of trade. Non-residents reduced their holdings of OFZ bonds over downbeat geopolitical expectations. Some extra growth in the current account balance can be expected in the second half this year, and the Russian rouble may appreciate late in the year, barring risks such as geopolitical exacerbation or plummeting energy prices.

Key words: balance of payments, current account, trade surplus, capital outflow, capital inflow and exchange rate, Bank of Russia.