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Balance of Payments in Q1 2018: Analysis and Forecast

Alexandra Bozhechkova – Head of Monetary Policy Department of the Center for Macroeconomics and Finance of the Gaidar Institute; Senior Research fellow of the Institute for Applied Economic Studies, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences. Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Alexander Knobel – Head of Foreign Trade Department, Center for Real Sector of the Gaidar Institute; Director of the Center for Foreign Trade Department, Institute for Applied Economic Studies, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences. Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Pavel Trunin – Head of Center for Macroeconomics and Finance of the Gaidar Institute; Leading Research fellow of the Center for the Study of Central Banks, Institute for Applied Economic Studies, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences. Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Russia’s positive balance of trade increased in Q1 2018 reflecting an increase of exports value amid slower growth of imports deliveries. Private capital outflow was observed triggered by the growth of foreign assets of Russian enterprises amid negative geopolitical expectations.

Key words: balance of payments, current account, trade surplus, capital outflow, capital inflow and exchange rate.