Evaluation of Effectiveness of the Regional Export Support System

Alexander Knobel – Head of Foreign Trade Department of the Gaidar Institute; Director of Center for Foreign Trade Department, Institute for Applied Economic Studies, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences. Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Anna Loshchenkova – Research fellow of the Foreign Trade Department of the Gaidar Institute, Candidate of Economic Sciences. E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Currently, export promotion in all countries pays a great attention, because it supports the highly efficient, competitive companies and industries, and production efficiency rises in other industries because of the overflows. In Russia export support is carried out at both federal and regional levels, however, exporters have noted high barriers of obtaining such support. In addition, the need to improve the efficiency of the export support system in Russia is driven by the goals of increasing exports set by the Decree of the President of the Russian Federation of May 7, 2018. The purpose of this article is an econometrical estimation of the impact of export support expenses in regional business development programs on regional export volumes and identification of preferred regions in terms of financing export support programs.

Key words: export support, intergovernmental transfers, export experience, regional export promotion centers.

Corporate Borrowings in January-September 2018

Michael Khromov – Head of Department for Financial Studies of the Gaidar Institute; Senior Research fellow of the Center of Structural Research, Institute for Applied Economic Studies, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration. Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Elizaveta Khudko – Senior Research fellow of the Budget Policy Department of the Gaidar Institute; Senior Research fellow of the Budget Policy Department, Institute for Applied Economic Studies, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences. Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

In 2018, bank lending to corporate customers is gradually gaining momentum mainly by means of rouble loans to non-financial institutions. Domestic bond market dynamics slowed down dramatically due to reduction of new borrowings by the Rosneft oil company. In 2018, the share of bond loans on the domestic market is diminishing.

Key words: Russian banking sector, corporate borrowers, nonfinancial institutions, financial institutions and domestic bond market.

Regional Budgets in January-September 2018

Alexander Deryugin – Senior Research fellow of the Budget Policy Department, Institute for Applied Economic Studies, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration; Research fellow of the Budget Policy Department of the Gaidar Institute. Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Public debt was reduced on the back of accelerating growth rates in consolidated budget revenues of subjects of the Russian Federation in Q3 2018. The revenue growth may push regional and local budget revenue figures to a 10-year high at 2018 year end.

Key words: regional budgets, regional budget revenues, regional budget expenditures, regions’ public debt, public budget loans and bank loans.

Survey of Current Business (August-November 2018)

Sergey Aukutsionek – Head of Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences, Candidate of Economic Sciences. E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Andrey Yegorov – Research fellow of the Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences, Candidate of Economic Sciences. E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Inessa Bachirova – Senior Research fellow of the Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences. E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Stanislav Belyakov – Research fellow of the Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences. E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

After a noticeable deterioration of the situation in Russian industry recorded in July, in August 2018 many indicators continued to decline. For example, the diffusion indices of order-book level and wages decreased by 7 percentage points each. Some diffusion indices of three-month expectations also showed noticeable dynamics: the order-book level index «lost» 4 percentage points, and the index of wages – 7 points (below it fell only at the beginning of the 2009 crisis year).

Key words: industry, industrial enterprises, price level, wages, employment, output, investment, indebtedness to banks, order-book level, stocks of finished products, capacity utilization rate, risk of bankruptcy, economic policy, crisis duration.

Social Well-Being and Self-Actualization Opportunities: Wealth and Age Group Divide

Elena Avraamova – Head of Department of Research for Social Development, Institute of Social Analysis and Forecasting, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Doctor of Economic Sciences, Professor. Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Dmitry Loginov – Senior Research fellow of the Social Development Department, Institute for Social Analysis and Forecasting, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences. E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

According to the Monitoring of Social Well-Being (September 2018), the most topical social problems are related to employment: a job loss and/or cuts in wages are apprehended by nearly a quarter of employees. Over a quarter of those surveyed estimated their various aspects of life as unsatisfactory, while another quarter of respondents, positively. The share of those who can see opportunities for self-actualization in the existing socioeconomic situation is nearly twice as big as the group of those who do not.

Key words: social well-being of the population, self-realization, employment, wage, age groups, groups of material well-being.

Level of Adaptability of Russian Industry in Q3 2018

Sergey Tsukhlo – Head of Business Surveys Department of the Gaidar Institute, Candidate of Economic Sciences. E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

The movement pattern of the Industry Adaptability Index over different periods demonstrates that in the Russian economy, biggest enterprises can better adapt to external conditions. Small and medium-sized ones adapt less successfully. This observation was also confirmed by data for January-September 2018.

Key words: industry, industry adaptation index, demand, expected demand, stocks of finished products, output and employment.

Households’ Incomes, Wages and Consumer Demand in January-September 2018

Olga Izryadnova – Head of Structural Policy Department of the Gaidar Institute; Leading Research fellow of the Macroeconomic Research Department, Institute for Applied Economic Studies, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration. Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

In Q3 2018, the macroeconomic situation was characterized by slowdown of GDP growth rates to 1.3% as compared to the same period of the previous year, while in Q2 2018 the relevant index was equal to 1.9%. In January-September 2018, a 8.4% growth in real wages as compared to the relevant index a year before offset negative dynamics of other income sources and brought about stabilization of real disposable cash incomes at the level of January-September 2017.

In Q3 2018, quarterly dynamics of the retail trade volume and paid services to households saw slowdown of growth rates and were accompanied by a growing inflationary pressure. A reduction of households’ real incomes in August-September 2018 amid their increased rate of borrowings cannot but cause some concern.

Key words: households’ incomes, income source, wages, savings, consumer demand, number of the employed and the rate of unemployment.

Industrial Production in Q3 2018: Near-Zero Growth

Andrey Kaukin – Head of Department for System Analysis of Sectoral Markets, Institute of Industry and Markets Infrastructures, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration; Head of Sectoral Markets and Infrastructure Department of the Gaidar Institute, Candidate of Economic Sciences. Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Eugenia Miller – Research fellow of the Industrial Markets and Infrastructure Studies Department, Institute for Applied Economic Studies, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration. Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

In Q3 2018, the movement of industrial production indices returned to a near-zero growth pattern, and first of all in the manufacturing sectors. In some industries, the slightly positive dynamics may have had to do, in part, with government support measures. Over the course of the same quarter, imports declined, most notably in the food industry, machine-building and chemical industry. However, this was not followed by industrial production decline, and so there is no reason, as yet, to speak of a general decline of demand across the national economy.

Key words: industry, economic sectors, mining industry and manufacturing, Rosstat.

Teachers’ Labor and Wages: What Has Changed?

Tatyana Klyachko – Director of Center of the Economics for Continuing Education, Institute for Applied Economic Studies, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Doctor of Economic Sciences, Professor. Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Elena Semionova – Senior Research fellow of the Center of the Economics for Continuing Education, Institute for Applied Economic Studies, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences. E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Galina Tokareva – Research fellow of the Center of the Economics for Continuing Education, Institute for Applied Economic Studies, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration. E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

The Center for Economics of Lifelong Learning (CELL) of the Institute for Applied Economic Research, RANEPA carries out on an annual basis the inter-regional monitoring of efficiency of schools based on a sociological survey of pupils’ parents, teachers and principals of schools of different types of settlements in constituent entities of the Russian Federation differentiated by the criteria of the social and economic situation. The article presents the outputs of the survey of teachers in 2014–2017 and outlines teachers’ reaction to changes in the organization and content of professional activities, as well as labor remuneration in the past few years.

Key words: monitoring, efficiency of school education, teachers, professional activity, teachers’salary.

Inflation in October 2018: Builds Up

Alexandra Bozhechkova – Head of Monetary Policy Department of the Gaidar Institute; Senior Research fellow of the Center for the Study of Central Banks, Institute for Applied Economic Studies, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences. Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Pavel Trunin – Head of Center for Macroeconomics and Finance of the Gaidar Institute; Leading Research fellow of the Center for the Study of Central Banks, Institute for Applied Economic Studies, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences. Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Emerging markets have stabilized somewhat for the time being, reducing pressure on the Russian rouble. Inflation continues to speed up. The Bank of Russia projects consumer price growth rates reaching 3.8–4.2% in 2018 and the year-to-year inflation rate at 5.0–5.5% at 2019 year end, and it is not until 2020 that the inflation rate is expected to return to its target rate (4%). Inflation risks may force the Russian central bank to hike the benchmark interest rate late this year/early next year.

Key words: inflation, monetary policy, key rate, outflow of capital, Bank of Russia, Rosstat.

Implementation of the Strategy for Development of the Small and Mid-Sized Businesses in Russia

Vera Barinova – Head of the Centre for Entrepreneurship Studies, Institute for Applied Economic Studies, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration; Head of the Centre for Small and Medium Entrepreneurship, Russian Foreign Trade Academy of the Ministry for the Economic Development of the Russian Federation, Candidate of Economic Sciences. Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Stepan Zemtsov – Senior Research fellow of the Centre for Entrepreneurship Studies, Institute for Applied Economic Studies, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration; Senior Research fellow of the Innovation Economy Laboratory of the Gaidar Institute, Candidate of Geographic Sciences. Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Vladimir Kotsubinsky – Senior Research fellow of the Centre for Small and Medium Entrepreneurship, Russian Foreign Trade Academy of the Ministry for the Economic Development of the Russian Federation; Senior Research fellow of the Regional Strategies Center, Institute for Applied Economic Studies, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences. E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Aleksander Krasnoselskih – Research fellow of the Centre for Small and Medium Entrepreneurship, Russian Foreign Trade Academy of the Ministry for the Economic Development of the Russian Federation; Junior Research fellow of the Centre for Entrepreneurship Studies, Institute for Applied Economic Studies, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration. E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Yulia Tsareva – Research fellow of the Centre for Entrepreneurship Studies, Institute for Applied Economic Studies, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration; Junior Research fellow of the Centre for Small and Medium Entrepreneurship, Russian Foreign Trade Academy of the Ministry for the Economic Development of the Russian Federation. E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

The plan of measures under the Strategy for Development of the Small and Mid-Sized Businesses was developed for the period of 2016–2017, so it is feasible now to sum up its results. Generally, 82% of the planned measures have been implemented, a high indicator for strategic documents. However, most of the implemented measures are of a formal nature. It is to be noted that only four out of ten target indicators have been achieved with no statistical data being available in respect of other three target indicators.

Key words: small and medium enterprises, SMEs, SP, public support, entrepreneurship support, support measures, SME Strategy.

Execution of the Federal Budget in January-September 2018

Tatyana Tischenko – Senior Research fellow of the Budget Policy Department of the Gaidar Institute; Senior Research fellow of the Budget Policy Department, Institute for Applied Economic Studies, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences. Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

In January-September 2018, dynamics of federal budget revenues sped up. Based on the results of the past three quarters, their growth was equal to 2.4 p.p. of GDP (up to 18.9% of GDP). Administration of the budget as regards expenditures lags behind the rates of the previous year. Such trends permitted to facilitate a 3.5% of GDP surplus of the federal budget.

Key words: federal budget, budget revenues, budget expenditures, budget surplus.

Development of Proportional Regulation of Professional Creditors in Russia, Brazil, India and Mexico

Yury Kondrashin – Research fellow of the Department for Financial Studies of the Gaidar institute. Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Michael Khromov – Head of Department for Financial Studies of the Gaidar Institute; Senior Research fellow of the Center of Structural Research, Institute for Applied Economic Studies, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration. Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

At present, the concept of proportional regulation of professional creditors’ activities is increasingly applied by financial regulators in different countries within the prudential supervision frameworks. For the Russian financial system, the experience of countries which are close to the Russian Federation as regards the standards of economic development, economic structure as well as socioeconomic and political conditions is believed to be more relevant.

Key words: мicrofinance, financial inclusion, prudential regulation, risk-based.