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Inflation in October 2018: Builds Up

Alexandra Bozhechkova – Head of Monetary Policy Department of the Gaidar Institute; Senior Research fellow of the Center for the Study of Central Banks, Institute for Applied Economic Studies, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences. Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Pavel Trunin – Head of Center for Macroeconomics and Finance of the Gaidar Institute; Leading Research fellow of the Center for the Study of Central Banks, Institute for Applied Economic Studies, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences. Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Emerging markets have stabilized somewhat for the time being, reducing pressure on the Russian rouble. Inflation continues to speed up. The Bank of Russia projects consumer price growth rates reaching 3.8–4.2% in 2018 and the year-to-year inflation rate at 5.0–5.5% at 2019 year end, and it is not until 2020 that the inflation rate is expected to return to its target rate (4%). Inflation risks may force the Russian central bank to hike the benchmark interest rate late this year/early next year.

Key words: inflation, monetary policy, key rate, outflow of capital, Bank of Russia, Rosstat.