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Challenges and Risks of the Forecast for 2019–2024

Alexey Vedev – Head of the Center of Structural Research, Institute for Applied Economic Studies, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration; Leading Research fellow of Department for Financial Studies of the Gaidar Institute, Doctor of Economic Sciences. Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Sergey Drobyshevsky – Scientific Director of the Gaidar Institute; Doctor of Economic Sciences, Ph. D, Associate Professor. Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Maria Kazakova – Deputy Head of International Department for Fiscal Sustainability Studies of the Gaidar Institute; Head of Department for Economic Growth Studies, Institute for Applied Economic Studies, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences. Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Forecast the Russian Ministry on 2019–2024, can be regarded as sufficiently discreet and realistic-2019–2020 timeframe and as the target, designed to achieve national development goals for 2021–2024. In the forecast, you can highlight a number of contentious provisions that might interfere with exit to the desired trajectory of growth of the Russian economy: the lack of mechanisms to launch private sector investment, growth in domestic production costs, possible reinforcement of coursework and inflationary risks.

Key words: scenario forecast for 2019–2024, baseline scenario, conservative scenario.