Drop in the 2018 Grain Yield: Are There Grounds for Concern?

Natalia Shagayda – Director of Center for Agro-Food Policy, Institute for Applied Economic Studies, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration; Head of Agricultural Policy Department of the Gaidar Institute, Doctor of Economic Sciences. Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Vasily Uzun – Main Research fellow of the Center for Agro-Food Policy, Institute for Applied Economic Studies, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration; Main Research fellow of the Agricultural Policy Department of the Gaidar Institute, Doctor of Economic Sciences, Professor. Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

A decrease in the gross grain yield in 2018 as compared to the record-high yield of 2017 does not entail any risks to domestic consumption needs. With reserves taken into account, the 2018 yield is quite enough to meet households’ needs in grain and cereal products, provide the livestock sector with concentrated fodder and underpin exports at the past three years’ average level. The case for prices on meat products to be increased and grain exports limited allegedly due to a decrease in the gross grain yield and appreciation of grain prices is baseless.

Key words: agriculture, cereal crops, cereal harvest, agricultural organizations, agricultural producers.