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Demography and Regional Social Development in the First Quarter of 2019

Ramilya R. Khasanova – Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Yulia F. Florinskaya – Leading Researcher of Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Geographic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Natalia V. Zubarevich – Main Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Doctor of Geographic Sciences, Professor (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Aleksandra Ya. Burdyak – Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

The natural decline in the population of Russia amounted to 106.6 thousand people in the first quarter of 2019, exceeding the same figure for 2018 by 22%. The decline was observed in most regions of the Russian Federation, population grew only in 17 ones. The overall mortality rate is 12.8‰, being lower than in 2018 (13.2‰). The decrease in mortality in January-March this year is observed for almost all causes of death, except for diseases of the circulatory and respiratory systems.

In the 1Q of 2019 there were 35.7 thousand children less born than in January-March 2018. Only in three regions the number of births increased. The birth rate declined in most regions of Russia, in 34 of them it decreased by more than 10 p.p.

The number of foreign citizens temporarily staying in Russia in the 1Q of 2019 exceeded similar indicators of the last two years, but remains 10% lower than pre-crisis values. The number of labor migrants in Russia is stable, as well as the share of formally legalized in the labor market among them. However, this year they pay less money to the regional budgets for patents.

The regional development in the first months of 2019 was unstable: industrial production decreased in 30% of regions, housing construction declined in the half of them. The growth of consumption was the only positive trend in the vast majority of subjects of the Russian Federation. The regional labour markets have not changed much since the previous year.

Regional budgets income increased at the beginning of 2019, such dynamics is comparable with that of 2018. Profit tax and excises were the main drivers of this growth. Regional budget expenditures are subject to the Federal policy priorities – infrastructure development and social protection of the population. Therefore, the last priority is implemented primarily in Moscow.

In 2018 housing affordability was equivalent to 2.8 years of saving for the primary market and 2.5 years for the secondary market of dwelling. Compared to 2016 housing affordability has not changed on average, while new housing have become less accessible by +0.2 years of income saving. At the beginning of the 2019 prices for housing and public utilities services rose by 2.3%. The maximal growth rate was reported in Novosibirsk, Bryansk regions and the Komi Republic.

Key words: birth rate, mortality, migration, regional budgets, regional development, housing.