Wages and Salaries of Public Officials: How Much and How to Pay

Elena I. Dobrolyubova – Leading Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Vladimir N. Yuzhakov – Director of Center for Public Management Technologies, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Doctor of Philosophical Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

A recent Federal Treasury Board announced a reduction in the number of federal employees. The task is to bring the remuneration of public officials to a competitive level among other things. This task can be solved, but in order to do it the system of salaries and wages should become more predictable, simple and transparent.

Key words: salary, state employees, officials.

Modernization of the Backbone Infrastructure: How to Evaluate Economic Effects

Tatyana N. Mikhailova – Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

The projects of modernization of transport infrastructure which were included in the relevant national project can modify the geography of economic activities inside the country and promote economic growth. However, such effects are rarely taken into account in investment program planning. According to the analysis of this issue, the implementation of transport projects in densely populated regions produces a substantial effect of «public good» which is to be taken into account in decision-making regarding the infrastructure development.

Key words: transport, transport projects, transport infrastructure, aggregate demand multiplier, economic geography, public good effect.

Regional Analysis of Demographic and Social Results of 2018

Ramilya R. Khasanova – Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Polina O. Kuznetsova – Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Yulia F. Florinskaya – Leading Researcher of Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Geographic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.  

Natalia V. Zubarevich – Main Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Doctor of Geographic Sciences, Professor (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

In 2018, natural decline in population of Russia constituted 218.4 thousand people. This situation resulted from a reduction of birth rate and a slight reduction of mortality compared to that in previous year. Current life expectancy is 72.84 years for any gender, 67.66 years for men and 77.87 years for women. Birth rate is equal to 1.597 per one woman in reproductive age.

Net migration fell down to 124.9 thousand people in 2018 and did not compensate the decline of population. Temporary migration has slightly changed as well as number of labor migrants in the Russian Federation. Most foreign employees are from CIS countries with growing share from Central Asia and less migrants from western countries of CIS.

Regional overview of 2018 social results is quite contradictive. Negative dynamics of housing construction and household income was going on in most regions. Growth of retail trade was supported by intensive bank crediting of households especially in the resource mining regions and underdeveloped national republics.

For regional budgets 2018 year was more positive, however the effect seems to be temporary. 22% increase of budget transfers, the rise of the world raw materials prices and its taxes contributed to the growth of income. Social priorities, healthcare and education, dominated in the dynamics of expenditures. However, this was the result of implementation of “wage” Executive Orders of the President. Regional gaps in social protection expenditures increased. While for all regions except Moscow expenditures on social payments minus compulsory medical insurance for unemployed population did not increased in real terms. In Moscow budget expenditures on social payments enlarged by 30%.

Key words: birth rate, mortality, alcohol consumption, migration, regional analysis, budget expenditures, social indicators.

Survey of Current Business (January-April 2019)

Sergey P. Aukutsionek – Head of Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Andrey S. Yegorov – Researcher of the Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Inessa A. Bachirova – Senior Researcher of the Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Tatyana V. Serzhantova – Senior Researcher of the Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

In January 2019, the diffusion index of output amounted to only 15 points, reaching a minimum for the entire 28-year history of observations of this indicator in the REB. At the same time, the diffusion index of its three-month expectation, on the contrary, turned out to be quite high (60 points).

The diffusion indices of the expected in three months changes in prices for the produced and purchased products, which were record high over the past three months, have returned to their usual values.

Key words: industry, industrial enterprises, price level, wages, employment, output, investment, indebtedness to banks, order-book level, stocks of finished products, capacity utilization rate, risk of bankruptcy, economic policy, crisis duration.

Living Standard of Households: Statistical and Sociological Estimation

Tatiana M. Maleva – Director of Institute for Social Analysis and Forecasting, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences, Doctor of Business Administration (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Victor Yu. Lyashok – Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Marina A. Eliseeva – Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Dmitry M. Loginov – Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Inflation constituted 5.2% in February 2019 against February of the previous year including 5.9% on food products, 4.6% on non-grocery goods and 5.1% on services. Thus, early March, consumer inflation reached the level predicted by Central Bank of the Russian Federation for H1.

In February, number of people employed increased by 0.2 mln while number of unemployed did not change in fact compared to January of the current year. The number of 798.000 people officially registered as unemployed, i.e. growth by 65.000 people.

In 2018, real disposable cash income of households, real accrued wages and salaries and real allotted pensions constituted 100.1, 100.8 and 106.8% respectively against 2017. From Q1 2019 data on cash incomes of households will be estimated according to new edition of methodology and, consequently, lead to change of their structure.

Monetary and subjective poverty of households has slightly decreased against 2015–2017. According to results of 2018, incomes of 12.9% households were below subsistence minimum and 25.2% estimated their financial situation as «bad» or «very bad». Income inequality has not changed in 2018 compared to 2017 being minimum since 2006.

In March 2019, half of households thought that financial situation of their family would not change in the near future while almost a quarter expected improvement and 13% feared deterioration. Representatives of low-income population and relatively senior age groups dominated among pessimists.

Key words: labor market, prices, cash incomes of households, credits, savings, social feeling of households.

Industrial Sector in Q1 2019: Output Growth is Hampered by Insufficient Domestic Demand

Sergey V. Tsukhlo – Head of Business Surveys Department of the Gaidar Institute, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

In the first months of 2019, Russian industry preserved output growth amid the recovery of the sales upward dynamics and around zero balance estimates of finished goods inventory. Nearly half of enterprises consider insufficient demand a major setback for significant output growth. Nevertheless, grounds for optimism remain regarding output plans and workers recruitment. The scale of investment satisfied around two thirds of industrial enterprises.

Key words: Russian industry, demand, output, employment, finished goods inventory, industrial lending, personal, investments, actual changes and expectations.

Potential of Long-Term Migration to Russia is Nearly Exhausted

Nikita V. Mkrtchyan – Leading Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Geographic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Yulia F. Florinskaya – Leading Researcher of Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Geographic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

The number of long-term migrants to Russia has not been growing since 2014, while the rate of their departures keeps increasing. The migration growth – the lowest in the post-Soviet period – fails to make up for the natural decline in the population.

Key words: migration, intellectual migration, migration of persons with higher education, domestic migration of persons with higher education.

Developing Markets: Macroeconomic Results of 2018

Lyudmila G. Gadiy – Junior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Anna M. Kiyutsevskaya – Researcher of the Gaidar Institute; Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Pavel V. Trunin – Head of Center for Macroeconomics and Finance of the Gaidar Institute; Leading Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Doctor of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Maria Ye. Sherbustanova – Junior Researcher of the Gaidar Institute (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

In 2018, the developing economies were experiencing a capital outflow due to toughening, by the USA, of its monetary policy, as well as the trade war between China and the United States. The most vulnerable ones turned out to be Argentina and Turkey, two countries that had accumulated quite a few domestic problems. In spite of the somewhat improved outlooks in early 2019, some significant risks of destabilization of the existing economic situation are still there. The strongest threats are associated with the situation in China: its domestic problems have the potential of triggering a new global economic crisis.

Key words: developing markets, capital outflow from developing markets, monetary policy of US FRB, trade war between China and USA.

Development of the Russian System of Higher Education

Nikita O. Bekeshev – Doktorand of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

The article is dedicated to development of Russian higher education at the international market of educational services. Research is conducted with regard to factors of strengthening its competitiveness and reduction of existing underperformance of Russia against leading countries. The article provides statistics relevant to education of foreign students in the leading countries of the world including Russia. Data provided on the leading countries of the world with the highest number of foreign students as well as on activities held in Russia in recent years aimed at improvement of competitiveness of domestic system of higher education and on results of those activities.

Key words: Russian system of education, higher professional education, international market of educational services, development, ranking.

Russian Foreign Trade in 2018: Growth in Non-Oil and Gas Exports

Alexander Yu. Knobel – Head of Foreign Trade Department of the Gaidar Institute; Director of Center for Foreign Trade Department of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration; Director of the Institute of International Economics and Finance, Russian Foreign Trade Academy of the Ministry for the Economic Development of the Russian Federation, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Alexander S. Firanchuk – Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Anastasia A. Lavrishcheva – Doktorand of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

In 2018, the exports of fuel and energy commodities increased by nearly 36%t as compared to the previous year, while growth in non-oil and gas exports amounted to over 11%. However, it was mainly facilitated by improvement of the pricing situation on the market. Within a year, imports rose by 5% primarily owing to considerable growth in H1 2018. The depreciation of the real exchange rate of the rouble in H2 2018 had a negative effect on the volume of imports.

Key words: foreign trade, export, import, exchange rate, regional pattern of goods turnover.

Bank Lending Market: Growth Due to Target Business

Michael Yu. Khromov – Head of Department for Financial Studies of the Gaidar Institute; Senior Researcher of the Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Elizaveta V. Khudko – Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration; Senior Researcher of the Gaidar Institute; Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

In 2018, banking credit pays the key role in the provision of the corporate sector’s borrowed resources. From 2014 through 2017, increment of the total bond market debt exceeded Rb 1 trillion, which was comparable with the bank debt growth of the corporate borrowers. Bank lending notably increased in 2018. Large business increased its presence both in the bank lending market and in the bank market.

Key words: Russian banking sector, bank lending, corporate borrowers, non-financial organizations, financial organizations, domestic bond market.

Russian Economy in 2018: Structural Aspects of Growth

Olga I. Izryadnova – Head of Structural Policy Department of the Gaidar Institute; Leading Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Acceleration of the GDP growth to 2.3% in 2018 was described by simultaneous growth of external and internal demand. Contribution of net export to GDP increased in this period by 10% and became one of the main factors of temporary acceleration of economic growth against previous year with the current dynamics of components of external economic activity.

Structural constraints had significant impact on dynamics of internal market in 2018. Reduction of purchasing power of households along with a lengthy trend of reduction of their real disposable income stipulated poor growth of consumer market. Capital market experienced ongoing impact of acute investment crisis 2014–2015.

Development of production in 2018 was determined by overcoming of 2014 decline practically in every type of enlarged basic economic activity. However, lack of meaningful structural changes and reduction of cumulative factor productivity caused slowdown of industrial production dynamics against 2017.

Key words: economy, economic growth, macroeconomics, industrial production, investment, incomes of households, labor market.

Bank Loan Remains the Main Tool to Maintain Households’ Spending

Michael Yu. Khromov – Head of Department for Financial Studies of the Gaidar Institute; Senior Researcher of the Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Households’ bank savings at the turn of 2019 have demonstrated better performance than a year earlier. The largest share of deposits unlike last year was denominated in foreign currency. In the meantime, brisk recovery of the bank lending on the retail side is ongoing. This strengthens the credit model of the households’ financial behavior.

Key words: Russian banking sector, bank deposits, bank loans, households.