Russian Regions’ Social Development and Demography: Autumn Trends of 2018

Natalia V. Zubarevich – Main Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Doctor of Geographic Sciences, Professor (Moscow, Russia). r. E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Aleksandra Ya. Burdyak – Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Ramilya R. Khasanova – Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Nikita V. Mkrtchyan – Leading Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Geographic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

By September-October 2018, most regions saw positive trends in industry; the rate of unemployment and partial employment remained low. At the same time, compared with the previous year investments and the rate of commissioning of new housing decreased in a half of regions, while households’ real incomes, in three-fourth of constituent entities of the Russian Federation. Budget revenues increased on the back of individual income tax revenues, profit tax revenues and transfers.

Households failed to pay 2.8% of bills for housing and public utilities as a year before in January-September 2017. For a number of years, leader regions and outsiders as regards debts on housing and public utilities did not virtually change:  the minimum debt was in the Central and Southern Federal Districts, while the maximum one, in the North Caucasian Federal District where it amounted to 15.7% in the specified period.

In the first three quarters of 2018, the natural decline in the population amounted to 173,400 persons. The rate of mortality increased and the birth rate declined as compared to the similar period of the previous year. An increase in the population on the back of international migration became smaller and made up for the natural decline in the population by only 52%.

Key words: regional analysis, budget revenues, birth rate, mortality rate, migration, social indices, households’ payments for housing and public utilities.

Dynamics of Industrial Output in 2018: Primary Sector’s Growth

Alexandra M. Zhemkova – Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Andrey S. Kaukin – Head of Department for System Analysis of Sectoral Markets, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration; Head of Sectoral Markets and Infrastructure Department of the Gaidar Institute, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Eugenia M. Miller – Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

In 2018 the output dynamics of the manufacturing industries were close to zero. Growth was observed in the primary sector mainly on the back of a surge in production of natural gas and coal. In manufacturing, positive growth rates were related either with a favorable global market environment or direct state support, while in other cases output stagnated or even fell.  According to the analysis, there are no structural prerequisites for growth in manufacturing industries.

Key words: industry, economic sectors, mining industry and manufacturing, Rosstat.

Analysis of Socio-Economic Situation: First Results of 2018 – January 2019

Aleksandra G. Polyakova – Leading Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Doctor of Economic Sciences, Professor (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.  

Elena Е. Grishina – Head of Department of Labour Markets and Pension System Research of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Elena M. Avraamova – Head of Department of Research for Social Development of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Doctor of Economic Sciences, Professor (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Yulia B. Chumakova – Deputy Director of Institute for Social Analysis and Forecasting, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Against the background of the GDP growth for 2018 constituting 102.3% against 2017 the real expenditure growth on the final consumption adjusted by the real inflation rate looks significantly moderate – 1.0%. At 2018-end inflation constituted 4.3% increasing from 2.5% posted in 2017. Retail trade turnover in 2018 hit 102.6% against the 2017 index in comparable prices. In January 2019, consumer prices went up by 5% against the same period of the previous year and by 1.0% against December 2018 hereby moderately reflecting VAT growth.

The number of labor force in 2018 as a whole practically remained unchanged against 2017. At the same time, employment moved up due to the reduction of the number of jobless. Average level of unemployment constituted 4.8% in the last year. Following the increase wage growth posted at the turn of the year their increase slowed down from 11.0% registered in January to 2.5% posted in December. Finally, in 2018 the real accrued wages of administrative staff moved up by 6.8%, disposable income and pensions in real terms constituted 100.1 and 100.8%, respectively against 2017. In January 2019, real disposable income fell by 1.3% against the same period of the previous year and zero wage growth was registered – 0.2%.

The majority of the population in late 2018 shared the opinion of stability. At the same time, the number of respondents saying that the situation noticeably deteriorated increased and the number of those who noticed improvement reduced. The share of respondents in the high risk zone in the sphere of employment shrank to the minimum for the entire period of monitoring.

Key words: cash household income, wage, labor market, prices, social sentiment.

Sectorial Aspects of Measuring and Analysis of Shadow Activities in the Russian Еconomy

Alexander S. Abroskin – Leading Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Doctor of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Natalia A. Abroskina – Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

The proposed approach to estimating the extent of shadow activities in different sectors of the Russian economy is an example of utilization of alternative methods of measuring the non-observed economy’s components.  The article deals with the general procedure – based on the modified classical method of physical input calculation – for computing indices of growth in shadow activities in various Russian economic sectors.

For the selected manufacturing sectors and services sectors, absolute and structural estimates of the extent of shadow activities were developed and adjusted estimates of the gross added value and GDP in 2017 with updated estimates of the extent of shadow activities accounted for were presented.

Key words: all-round production costs, lead factor, physical input calculation method, methodological approaches, non-observed economy, sectorial estimates, supply and use tables, shadow activities.

Russia’s Financial Market 2018: Investment Risks

Alexander E. Abramov – Head of Department for Analysis of Institutions and Financial Markets of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Anastasia A. Lavrishcheva – Doktorand of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

The Russian equity market in 2018 came to be more profitable and stable than many other emerging markets, but it continued to lag behind competitors in terms of returns to investors and investment risk indicators. There were more problems that came from non-residents outflow.

Key words: Russian stock market, global stock indices, Russian bond market, federal loan bonds, government short-term bonds, government savings bonds, corporate bonds, regional bonds.

General Parameters and Specifics of Russian Regions’ International Cooperation

Alexander A. Pakhomov – Leading Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Doctor of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

At present, amid economic instability and unfavorable foreign market environment the international cooperation of Russian constituent entities with foreign states is becoming an additional factor of their economic development, that is, facilitation of growth points in individual sectors of the economy and even in the economy as a whole in a number of regions.

Key words: constituent entities of the Russian Federation, near-border cooperation, international cooperation, regional economy, non-oil and gas exports.

Banking Sector 2018: Key Trends

Michael Yu. Khromov – Head of Department for Financial Studies of the Gaidar Institute; Senior Researcher of the Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

In 2018, the number of banks whose banking licenses were withdrawn increased. The overall size of those banks’ assets as well as their average value decreased considerably, while the mechanism of financial rehabilitation was applied only once in 2018. 

Key words: Russian banking sector, banks with revoked licenses, financial rehabilitation of banks, Bank of Russia.

Foreign Trade in Russia: Preliminary Results of the Past Year

Alexander Yu. Knobel – Head of Foreign Trade Department of the Gaidar Institute; Director of Center for Foreign Trade Department of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Alexander S. Firanchuk – Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

In January-October 2018, exports of fuel and energy commodities increased by 36% as compared to the relevant period of the previous year (78% relative to the level of 2013). Other goods exports increased by 16%, having returned to the pre-crisis values (103% relative to the level of 2013). In the first ten months, imports increased by 7%, despite depreciation of the real ruble/dollar exchange rate. Growth in imports of some non-food products is evidence of continued recovery of consumer demand. In the geographic pattern of the sales turnover, the share of China grew (+1.0 p.p.) on the back of 1.5-fold growth in exports. 

Key words: foreign trade, exports, imports, exchange rate, geographical pattern of trade turnover.

Survey of Current Business (November 2018 – February 2019)

Sergey P. Aukutsionek – Head of Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Andrey S. Yegorov – Researcher of the Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Tatyana V. Serzhantova – Senior Researcher of the Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Stanislav V. Belyakov – Researcher of the Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

In November 2018, some key indicators improved: after a considerable October reduction, the diffusion indices of output and order-book level increased by 10 percentage points, remaining, however, at a low absolute level. Stocks of finished products (relative to the normal monthly level) decreased by 9 points. The share of enterprises not intending to take new loans from banks in the next 3 months declined by 14 percentage points and reached a minimum value in 14 months (39%).

For the second month in a row, due to the increase in VAT, predictably high remains the diffusion index of expected after three months changes in prices for purchased products. Compared with last year, the indicator rose by 16 points.

Key words: industry, industrial enterprises, price level, wages, employment, output, investment, indebtedness to banks, order-book level, stocks of finished products, capacity utilization rate, risk of bankruptcy, economic policy, crisis duration.

Russia’s Balance of Payments 2018: Current Account Balance Hits

Alexandra V. Bozhechkova – Head of Monetary Policy Department of the Gaidar Institute; Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Alexander Yu. Knobel – Head of Foreign Trade Department of the Gaidar Institute; Director of Center for Foreign Trade Department of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Pavel V. Trunin – Head of Center for Macroeconomics and Finance of the Gaidar Institute; Leading Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

In 2018, Russia posted the highest on record positive current account balance since 1992, 2.5 times the amount recorded in 2017, due to increase in fuel and energy exports on the back of improved terms of trade and stagnant imports led by a weakening rouble. At the same time, the private sector saw substantial capital outflows that were driven by reduced foreign liabilities and increased foreign assets for banks and enterprises.

Key words: balance of payments, current account, trade surplus, capital outflow, capital inflow and exchange rate, Bank of Russia.

Russian Industry 2018: Stagnant but not in Crisis

Sergey V. Tsukhlo – Head of Business Surveys Department of the Gaidar Institute, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

2018 was a tough year for the Russian industry, according to surveys. On the one hand, there were no visible crisis-related changes, but on the other hand, positive trends of 2017 slowed in 2018, affecting industrial enterprises’ assessments of the situation in the industry. The pace of recovery from stagnation slackened.

Key words: Russian industry, demand, output, employment, stocks of finished goods, crediting of manufacturing, actual trends and expectations.