Analysis of Socio-Economic Situation: First Results of 2018 – January 2019

Aleksandra G. Polyakova – Leading Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Doctor of Economic Sciences, Professor (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.  

Elena Е. Grishina – Head of Department of Labour Markets and Pension System Research of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Elena M. Avraamova – Head of Department of Research for Social Development of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Doctor of Economic Sciences, Professor (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Yulia B. Chumakova – Deputy Director of Institute for Social Analysis and Forecasting, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Against the background of the GDP growth for 2018 constituting 102.3% against 2017 the real expenditure growth on the final consumption adjusted by the real inflation rate looks significantly moderate – 1.0%. At 2018-end inflation constituted 4.3% increasing from 2.5% posted in 2017. Retail trade turnover in 2018 hit 102.6% against the 2017 index in comparable prices. In January 2019, consumer prices went up by 5% against the same period of the previous year and by 1.0% against December 2018 hereby moderately reflecting VAT growth.

The number of labor force in 2018 as a whole practically remained unchanged against 2017. At the same time, employment moved up due to the reduction of the number of jobless. Average level of unemployment constituted 4.8% in the last year. Following the increase wage growth posted at the turn of the year their increase slowed down from 11.0% registered in January to 2.5% posted in December. Finally, in 2018 the real accrued wages of administrative staff moved up by 6.8%, disposable income and pensions in real terms constituted 100.1 and 100.8%, respectively against 2017. In January 2019, real disposable income fell by 1.3% against the same period of the previous year and zero wage growth was registered – 0.2%.

The majority of the population in late 2018 shared the opinion of stability. At the same time, the number of respondents saying that the situation noticeably deteriorated increased and the number of those who noticed improvement reduced. The share of respondents in the high risk zone in the sphere of employment shrank to the minimum for the entire period of monitoring.

Key words: cash household income, wage, labor market, prices, social sentiment.