Migration Growth in January-April 2019: Abnormal Indices

Nikita V. Mkrtchyan – Leading Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Geographic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Yulia F. Florinskaya – Leading Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Geographic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Migration growth of Russian households has sharply increased in January-April 2019 exceeding data for the respective period of all previous ten years. Number of foreign labor migrants slightly increased while the share of those among them legalized at the labor market reduced.

Key words: migration, long-term migration, temporary migration, internal Russian migration, work permits, patents.

Capital Mobility: Changes after Financial Crisis

Andrey V. Zubarev – Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Konstantin S. Rybak – Junior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

This paper studies capital mobility in three groups of countries: OECD, high-income countries, and upper-middle income countries. Model specifications suitable for estimating long- and short-term capital mobility are employed. We also test the hypothesis that the capital mobility decreases as a result of the global financial crisis of 2008. We have found no stable results that speak in favour of this hypothesis.

Key words: Feldstein–Horioka puzzle, capital mobility, panel regression, relationship of savings and investment, changes after the world financial crisis.

Tax Maneuver in the Oil Sector: Risks of «Manual Control»

Andrey S. Kaukin – Head of Department for System Analysis of Sectoral Markets of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration; Head of Sectoral Markets and Infrastructure Department of the Gaidar Institute, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Eugenia M. Miller – Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

The term of an agreement signed by the Federal Anti-Monopoly Service (FAS), Minenergo, and oil companies on price freeze on petrol and diesel fuel expired on July 1, 2019. It is envisaged that the damping mechanism will ensure the price growth in line with inflation in the months to come although the parameters of such mechanism have not been defined. Delaying with decision making on this issue moreover in the context of potential deterioration of the macroeconomic conditions can increase risks for a strong possibility of «manual control» and price freeze

Key words: tax maneuver, industry, oil companies, vertically integrated oil company, oil, refineries, the EPDP, damping factor.

Global Oil Market: Price Stabilization

Yury N. Bobylev – Head of Mineral Sector Economics Department of the Gaidar Institute; Leading Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Agreements between OPEC, Russia and a number of other countries (OPEC+) not affiliated with this organization on joint measures aimed at limitation of oil production became a meaningful factor providing its impact on oil prices in the world. Implementation of these agreements contributed to the growth of global prices up to USD 60–70/barrel. In the beginning of July 2019, OPEC+ countries took a decision to prolong existing limitations of oil production for the next nine months. This measure should serve as a stabilizing factor for the world oil market amid increase of production in the USA and slowdown of the global economic growth.

Key words: oil, oil production, global oil market, global oil prices, OPEC, OPEC+.

Privatization Program 2017–2019: Latest Tendencies and Prospects of Realization

Georgy N. Malginov – Head of Ownership and Corporate Governance Department of the Gaidar Institute; Leading Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: malginov@ieр.ru

Alexander D. Radygin – Chairman of Academic Board, Head of Center for Institutional Development, Ownership and Corporate Governance of the Gaidar Institute; Director of Institute for Applied Economic Studies, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Doctor of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

The article dwells upon main tendencies of privatization process and related aspects of state property policy in 2018–early 2019.

Key words: privatization, privatization program 2017–2019, blocks of stocks, federal property, treasury property, economic community, shareholding companies, Rosimuschestvo.

Foreign Trade in January-April 2019: Recovery Growth of Non-Oil Exports

Alexander Yu. Knobel – Head of Foreign Trade Department of the Gaidar Institute; Director of Center for Foreign Trade Department of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Alexander S. Firanchuk – Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

The 2017–2018 economic recovery of foreign trade came to an end after its reduction in 2014-2016. In the first four months of 2019, trade turnover was up to the mark of the same period of the previous year, i.e. fuel export slightly increased, export of other goods reduced (-2.4%), import was at the level of the respective period of 2018 (-0.9%). 

Key words: foreign trade, export, import, rate of exchange.

Comparative Analysis of the Development of Accumulative Component of the Pension System and Non-Governmental Pension Insurance of Russia

Gulnara F. Fatkhlislamova – Docent of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

The cumulative component of compulsory pension insurance has exhausted its growth reserves with the recovery of the non-state pension system outlined in 2017. Competition in the segment of investment of pension savings and pension reserves remains high, the penetration of bank capital into the segment of investment of pension savings and the strengthening of the positions of a number of largest non-state pension funds can be traced. Regulatory requirements aimed at reducing the risk of investing pension funds have led to a flow of funds from the corporate sector of the securities market to the government. Investment of pension savings found its inefficiency over the period analyzed, the non-state pension provision segment, on the contrary, proved its profitability, i.e. A voluntary pension system is most effective in a market economy.

Key words: compulsory pension insurance, funded component, investment of pension funds, non-state pension provision, pension savings, pension reserves.

Development of Common Market of South American Countries (MERCOSUR)

Nadezhda P. Volovik – Head of Foreign Trade Department of the Gaidar Institute; Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Olga I. Izryadnova – Head of Structural Policy Department of the Gaidar Institute; Leading Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) is interested in establishment of free trade zone (FTZ) with Common market of South American countries (MERCOSUR). However, it has to be noted that many issues hinder establishment of FTZ between blocks. Careful consideration of integration processes under MERCOSUR is required as well as analysis of economic development of countries, members of the block and their trade policy,

Key words: MERCOSUR, Eurasian Economic Union, free trade zone, trade policy, trade liberalization, protectionism, tariff and non-tariff barriers.

Development of Cooperative Farming: Pattern Leads to Haulers

Maria P. Antonova – Leading Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia), PhD. E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Alexandra A. Potapova – Junior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Competence centers in the sphere of agricultural cooperation and assistance to farmers are being set up in various RF regions. Research done by RANEPA experts has demonstrated that the mechanism itself for the creation of such centers and the ideology of their formation can require adjustment.

Key words: agricultural cooperation, employees’ competence, competence centers, Federal project.

Results of the G20 Summit: Mitigation of Risks

Marina V. Larionova – Director of Center for International Institution Studies, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Philological Sciences, Doctor of Political Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

The G20 Osaka Summit can be regarded as success. Despite geopolitical tensions, the G20 succeeded in approving and taking more than one hundred decisions which implementation is expected to facilitate mitigations of risks to sustainable growth.  

Key words: G20, 14th Summit G20, Osaka, development assistance, economic growth, digital economy, energy consumption.

Survey of Current Business (April-July 2019)

Sergey P. Aukutsionek – Head of Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Andrey S. Yegorov – Researcher of the Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Inessa A. Bachirova – Senior Researcher of the Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Tatyana V. Serzhantova – Senior Researcher of the Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

In April 2019, the diffusion index of wages showed a significant increase, adding 12 points. The diffusion index of stocks of finished products, on the contrary, lost 15 points at once and the volume of stocks in relative terms decreased by 9 points. A similar output index fell by 11 points. The share of financially sustainable enterprises reached 88%, having increased by 25 points over the month. Comparison with last year’s indicators revealed an improvement in almost all the considered positions.

Key words: industry, industrial enterprises, price level, wages, employment, output, investment, indebtedness to banks, order-book level, stocks of finished products, capacity utilization rate, financial situation, production restrictive factors.

Balance of Payments in Q2 2019

Alexandra V. Bozhechkova – Head of Monetary Policy Department of the Gaidar Institute; Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Pavel V. Trunin – Head of Center for Macroeconomics and Finance of the Gaidar Institute; Leading Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Doctor of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Positive trade surplus significantly reduced in Russia in Q2 2019 resulted from fast reduction of export vs import values. Federal authorities and private enterprises enjoyed net capital inflow. Banks increased foreign assets and reduced their commitments to non-residents. Rate of Ruble exchange has slightly strengthened during this period, however, risks of its reduction still remain.

Key words: balance of payments, export, import, current account, rate of Ruble exchange, capital outflows, Bank of Russia.

Index of the Russian Industry Adaptation in H1 2019

Sergey V. Tsukhlo – Head of Business Surveys Department of the Gaidar Institute, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Surveys of Russian industrial enterprises showed in H1 2019 a high degree of employees supply as well as satisfaction with stock of raw materials and value of demand. Estimation of financial/economic situation repeated record related to the end of 2017 having achieved historic maximum.

Key words: industry, index of industry adaptation, stock of finished goods, stock of raw materials, stock of materials, demand, employees supply, financial/economic situation.