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Decomposition of Russia’s Economic Growth Rates in 2018–2019

Sergey M. Drobyshevsky – Scientific Director of the Gaidar Institute; Head of Macroeconomic Research Department of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Doctor of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor (Moscow, Russia}. Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Pavel N. Pavlov – Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

We have performed a decomposition of Russia’s GDP growth rates to assess the current state of the Russian economy. Basic production factors (labour, capital, total factor productivity) in 2018 contributed to the growth around 1.6 of a percentage point. Global crude oil prices posted a negative contribution of around -0.5 of a percentage point, while the business cycle and random shocks components altogether contributed around 1.2 of a percentage point. End-of-year growth for 2019 might stay at 1.7–2.0%, barring negative shocks.

Key words: Russian economy, GDP, decomposition of growth rates, total factor productivity, labor, capital.