Assessment of the Households’ Inflationary Expectations

Diana A. Petrova – Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Pavel V. Trunin – Head of Center for Macroeconomics and Finance of the Gaidar Institute; Leading Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Doctor of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

The article provides data obtained from the survey conducted by RANEPA in order to assess the households’ inflationary expectations. Survey findings demonstrate that perceived inflation and the households’ inflationary expectations obtained by the RANEPA survey are close to the Bank of Russia estimates. In October 2018 the inflationary expectations of the population remained unchanged over next 12 months and remained at June 2018 level. This is due to stable gasoline prices and reduced prices on foodstuffs seen in July-September 2018. Meanwhile, inflationary risks in mid-term perspective remain high owing to weaker ruble and VAT increase.

Key words: inflationary expectations, perceived inflation, households’ survey by RANEPA, prices.