Russia’s Balance of Payments in Q1 2019: Rouble Has Potential for Appreciation

Alexandra V. Bozhechkova – Head of Monetary Policy Department of the Gaidar Institute; Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Anastasia A. Lavrishcheva – Doktorand of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Pavel V. Trunin – Head of Center for Macroeconomics and Finance of the Gaidar Institute; Leading Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Doctor of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Russia’s positive balance of trade increased in Q1 2019, compared to the previous years’ same period, on the back of decline in imports (a major contributor to the increase) induced by rouble depreciation. BoP data show that residents invested more in foreign assets as well as the OFZ bond market became more appealing to non-residents. The Russian rouble has potential for further strengthening, although its depreciation cannot be ruled out if new external shocks occur.

Key words: balance of payments, current account, trade surplus, capital outflow, capital inflow and exchange rate, Bank of Russia.