Fertility, Mortality and Migration in H1 2019

Alla O. Makarentseva – Head of the Demographic and Migration Research Department of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Nikita V. Mkrtchyan – Leading Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Geographic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

In January-July 2019 860.4 thousand children were born in Russia. It is 7.4% less than for the same period in 2018. The total fertility rate decreased to 1.58 children per woman in 2018, however not the dynamic but the change in structure is the most striking. The total rate of first births in 2018 was 0.66 children per woman on average. Its reduction seems particularly sharp after 2010–2015-ies. Furthermore, such a low rate of first births was observed in Russia once in 1999 at the ’bottom’ of the downward fertility trend.

In January-July 2019 1070 thousand of people died, it is 2.7% less than in 2018. For the first seven months of 2019 natural population decline was 209.6 million people, the scale of population loss is growing compared to the previous year.

Unexpectedly huge migration growth by 77.7% is recorded in the first half of 2019. To a large extent it has happened due to data management progress and better Rosstat – Ministry of Interior Affair cooperation. This improvement has affected international migration figures only, while internal migration data has not changed significantly. In summer 2019 more foreign citizens are temporarily staying in Russia than for the last three years, this is mainly for tourists, working people and for private purpose visitors. Since last year the number of labor migrants has increased by almost 300 thousand people, although the number of valid work permits hasn’t changed at all.

Key words: fertility, mortality, fertility rates, migration, international migration.

Survey of Current Business (June-September 2019)

Sergey P. Aukutsionek – Head of Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Andrey S. Yegorov – Researcher of the Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Inessa A. Bachirova – Senior Researcher of the Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Stanislav V. Belyakov – Researcher of the Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

In June 2019, noticeable changes occurred in the relations of industrial enterprises with the banking sector. The share of enterprises not intending to take new loans from banks in the next 3 months fell by 22 percentage points at once and amounted to 44%. The share of enterprises which have no debt to banks and do not expect to obtain it in the next three months has also decreased (by 14 percentage points to 38%). The amount of debt to banks increased by 13 points, reaching 90% of the norm for this month.

Key words: industry, industrial enterprises, price level, wages, employment, output, investment, indebtedness to banks, order-book level, stocks of finished products, capacity utilization rate, financial situation.

Socio-Economic Dynamics and Regional Situation in the Middle of 2019

Tatiana M. Maleva – Director of Institute for Social Analysis and Forecasting, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences, Doctor of Business Administration (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Victor Yu. Lyashok – Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Natalia V. Zubarevich – Main Researcher of Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Doctor of Geographic Sciences, Professor (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

GDP growth was 0.7% in the first half of 2019. Industrial production increased by 2.6%, retail trade turnover grew by 1.6% in January-July compared to the same period of the previous year. Consumer price growth in July was 4.6%. Inflation was little higher than in 2017–2018, this was one of the factors reducing real incomes.

Real disposable money income decreased by 0.2% in 2Q of 2019 compared to the same period of the previous year. On the contrary real wages and real pensions increased by 2.6% and 0.9% respectively. In the first half of 2019 13.5% of the population was in poverty, with money income below the subsistence minimum level. Poverty increased compared to the same period of last year (than it was 13.3%).

The labor force in the 2Q of 2019 consists of 74.9 million people. Since 2Q 2018 it has decreased by 1.0 million people, both in the number of employed (by 0.8 million) and unemployed people (by 0.2 million).

In the mid-2019 income and investment are the most acute problems for the regional development – they decreased more than in half of the subjects of the Russian Federation. Only four regions managed to fulfill the formal requirements of the May decree on wages. In most regions, budget revenues are growing, while territorial polarization in budget revenues, wages and investments is increasing.

Key words: labor market, money income, poverty, regional analysis, budget expenditures.

Free Trade Agreement between the European Union and the MERCOSUR

Nadezhda P. Volovik – Head of Foreign Trade Department of the Gaidar Institute; Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Late in 2018, the Declaration on Further Development of Integration Processes within the Frameworks of the Eurasian Economic Union (RRU) which set the EEU’s priorities in promotion cooperation with other regional integration associations, including Latin American and Caribbean countries was approved. In this context, it is necessary to learn the international experience in establishing free trade zones (FTZ) and arrangements achieved in new integration associations. The article deals with the free trade agreement concluded between the world’s largest customs unions: the EU and the MERCOSUR.

Key words: regional trade agreements, free trade zone, trade policy, trade liberalization, protectionism, tariff and non-tariff barriers, preferential tariff.

Concentration of Non-Government Pension Funds around the State Has Sped Up

Ekaterina A. Pospelova – Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

The NPF market is under pressure from the state. The process of consolidation of the industry is accompanied by the concentration of assets in the NPFs associated with government. At the end of the first quarter of 2019, the share of such funds accounted for 80.4%. The new prudential rules led to an increase of investments in government bonds to 37.7% in the NPF’s investment portfolio.

Key words: pensions, pension savings, governmentalization, non-government pension funds, the National Pension Fund, investments, long-term investments, institutional investors.

Dynamics of Output and Consumption in H1 2019

Olga I. Izryadnova – Head of Structural Policy Department of the Gaidar Institute; Leading Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Nadezhda P. Volovik – Head of Foreign Trade Department of the Gaidar Institute; Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Anastasia A. Lavrishcheva – Doktorand of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

In H1 2019, the development of the Russian economy was fraught with weakening dynamics of the main social and economic indices with its structural specifics determined by reduced contribution of the building and investment activities, trade and agriculture. The positive dynamics of the industry were underpinned by the consolidation of the role of the extractive industries. Amid the differences in the dynamics of various components of the foreign trade turnover, the contribution of net exports kept growing and it permitted to neutralize the negative effect produced by the shrinkage of domestic demand.

In the period under review, the consumer market was seriously affected by the trend of downturn in household real disposable cash income and slowdown of growth in real wages.

Key words: industry, capital investments, manufacturing industries, consumer demand, household income.

Economic Situation in the Industry in H1 2019

Sergey P. Aukutsionek – Head of Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Alexandra Ye. Batyaeva – Senior Researcher of the Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

The article presents a set of different non-traditional economic indicators obtained in the surveys, which were conducted by the «Russian Economic Barometer» among Russian industrial enterprises in the first half of 2019. A wide range of considered indicators provides a great possibility to make a more comprehensive assessment of the state of affairs in Russian industry.

Key words: industry, industrial enterprises, production and investments restrictive factors, suppliers, wholesale buyers, recruitments and redundancies, risk of bankruptcy, competitiveness, sources of investments, relations with banks, production and inflation, demand prognoses.

Economic Growth: Forecasts Revised Downwards

Alexey L. Vedev – Head of the Center of Structural Research of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration; Leading Researcher of the Gaidar Institute, Doctor of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

The mid-term forecast of the RF Ministry of Economic Development has been revised downwards as compared with the April version. However, the growth rates of real GDP are left unchanged for this year (1.3%) and reduced from 2% to 1.7% for the next year. In terms of the budget process, the nominal values of GDP have declined which factor means a decrease in revenues is expected. Accordingly, expenditures are expected to be cut, so, this situation will result in the shrinkage of domestic demand.

Key words: economy, economic growth, economic development forecast.