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Socio-Economic Dynamics and Regional Situation in the Middle of 2019

Tatiana M. Maleva – Director of Institute for Social Analysis and Forecasting, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences, Doctor of Business Administration (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Victor Yu. Lyashok – Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Natalia V. Zubarevich – Main Researcher of Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Doctor of Geographic Sciences, Professor (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

GDP growth was 0.7% in the first half of 2019. Industrial production increased by 2.6%, retail trade turnover grew by 1.6% in January-July compared to the same period of the previous year. Consumer price growth in July was 4.6%. Inflation was little higher than in 2017–2018, this was one of the factors reducing real incomes.

Real disposable money income decreased by 0.2% in 2Q of 2019 compared to the same period of the previous year. On the contrary real wages and real pensions increased by 2.6% and 0.9% respectively. In the first half of 2019 13.5% of the population was in poverty, with money income below the subsistence minimum level. Poverty increased compared to the same period of last year (than it was 13.3%).

The labor force in the 2Q of 2019 consists of 74.9 million people. Since 2Q 2018 it has decreased by 1.0 million people, both in the number of employed (by 0.8 million) and unemployed people (by 0.2 million).

In the mid-2019 income and investment are the most acute problems for the regional development – they decreased more than in half of the subjects of the Russian Federation. Only four regions managed to fulfill the formal requirements of the May decree on wages. In most regions, budget revenues are growing, while territorial polarization in budget revenues, wages and investments is increasing.

Key words: labor market, money income, poverty, regional analysis, budget expenditures.