-

Fertility, Mortality and Migration in H1 2019

Alla O. Makarentseva – Head of the Demographic and Migration Research Department of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Nikita V. Mkrtchyan – Leading Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Geographic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

In January-July 2019 860.4 thousand children were born in Russia. It is 7.4% less than for the same period in 2018. The total fertility rate decreased to 1.58 children per woman in 2018, however not the dynamic but the change in structure is the most striking. The total rate of first births in 2018 was 0.66 children per woman on average. Its reduction seems particularly sharp after 2010–2015-ies. Furthermore, such a low rate of first births was observed in Russia once in 1999 at the ’bottom’ of the downward fertility trend.

In January-July 2019 1070 thousand of people died, it is 2.7% less than in 2018. For the first seven months of 2019 natural population decline was 209.6 million people, the scale of population loss is growing compared to the previous year.

Unexpectedly huge migration growth by 77.7% is recorded in the first half of 2019. To a large extent it has happened due to data management progress and better Rosstat – Ministry of Interior Affair cooperation. This improvement has affected international migration figures only, while internal migration data has not changed significantly. In summer 2019 more foreign citizens are temporarily staying in Russia than for the last three years, this is mainly for tourists, working people and for private purpose visitors. Since last year the number of labor migrants has increased by almost 300 thousand people, although the number of valid work permits hasn’t changed at all.

Key words: fertility, mortality, fertility rates, migration, international migration.