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Socio-Economic Situation Right before the Epidemiological Crisis

Tatiana M. Maleva – Director of Institute for Social Analysis and Forecasting, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences, Doctor of Business Administration (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Elena E. Grishina – Leading Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Marina A. Eliseeva – Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Dmitry M. Loginov – Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Consumer inflation at the end of 2019 was 3%. From February 2019 to February 2020, prices rose by 2.3%. In 2019 retail trade turnover increased by 1.6% in comparable prices relative to the previous year. The households’ credit debt to banks increased by 18.2% in nominal terms, with 4.2% of debt overdue. In 2019, the volume of bank deposits of the population grew by 7.3%.

The unemployment rate amounted to 4.6% in 2019, renewing the historic minimum. In January 2020, the number of employed people was 132 thousand higher than in January last year, while the unemployment rate decreased by 0.2 p.p.

In 2019 the real disposable income of the population increased by 0.8%, while the real size of pensions increased by 1.5%. According to preliminary data of Rosstat, the average monthly wage in 2019 was 47468 rubles, which in real terms is 2.9% higher than in 2018. Monetary incomes of 12.3% of the population in 2019 were below the minimum subsistence level, therefore the share of the poor decreased as compared to the previous year (12.6%).

In February 2020, the majority of the population (56%) gave negative assessments of the country’s economic situation, while the prevalence of positive characteristics was quite high (34% of respondents). The survey registered expectations of rather positive changes in both the macroeconomic situation and personal welfare. New social support measures introduced in 2020 for families with children are actively approved by the population (over 85%). At the same time, these measures will directly affect from 10% (maternity capital per firstborn) to 22% (free hot meals in school grades 1–4) of Russian households.

Key words: labor market, wages, monetary income, consumer price index, social well-being, social programs for families with children.