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Assessment of Possible Economic Damage by Emergency Oil Spills in the Arctic Shelf Oil Deposit

Alexandra V. Goloveshkina – Master’s Degree Student of the North-West Institute of Management, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Saint-Petersburg, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Anatoly I. Chistobaev – Professor of the North-West Institute of Management, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Doctor of Geographical Sciences (Saint Petersburg, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Validation of existing methods for calculating monetary compensation from environmental pollution is the main purpose of the article. Relevance of the topic is reveals in this article. Current reference documentation and block diagram of calculating monetary compensation process are presented in this work.

Key words: methods assessment, environment, oil spill, Arctic conditions, anthropogenic impact, assessment losses, economic assessment, environmental disruption, spill response.

Coronavirus Pandemic Impact on the Global Integration Processes

Alexander Yu. Knobel – Head of Foreign Trade Department of the Gaidar Institute; Director of Center for Foreign Trade Department of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Nikita S. Pyzhikov – Deputy Director of the Institute for International Economics and Finance, Russian Foreign Trade Academy under the Ministry for Economic Development of the Russian Federation (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Anna N. Kutovaya – Researcher of the Institute for International Economics and Finance, Russian Foreign Trade Academy under the Ministry for Economic Development of the Russian Federation (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Authors analyze the impact of pandemic on the global integration processes. COVID-19 can lead to postponement of negotiations and dates of entry in force of regional trade agreements facilitating transfer of negotiation processes into videoconferences format. A number of integration associations make a coordinated effort to combat pandemic, among them are European Union and Eurasian Economic Union. Certain countries agree on simplified procedures for trading with partners on free economic zone. Finally, pandemic can in future affect the contents of trade agreements laying stress on sustainability of supply chains.

The article was prepared in the framework of execution of state order by RANEPA. 

Key words: pandemic, coronavirus, COVID-19, integration, trade agreements, EAEU, EU.

Identification of the Most Important Russian Cities from the Point of View of Transport Links as an Instrument for Prevention of Pandemic Proliferation

Kirill V. Rostislav – Junior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Yury Yu. Ponomarev – Head of Laboratory for Infrastructure and Spatial Research of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Senior Researcher of the Gaidar Institute, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

The article analyzes relative importance of Russian cities in the settlement system and potential effects from restricting transport links aimed at the prevention of proliferation of COVID-19 pandemic on the territory of the country. Travel restrictions within the most important from the transport links cities will increase distance between inhabitants of the country and can prevent proliferation of the disease, improve chances for its control and help concentrating resources for the assistance for the severe cases. Restriction of links with Moscow is the most effective at the level of subject of the Federation or separate cities isolation measure in combating coronavirus proliferation because sharply increases the average distance between inhabitants of the country.

Key words: road network, scenario analysis, COVID-19.

Obstacles to Post-Crisis Recovery

Dmitriy N. Shults – Macroeconomic Research Director of the Infrastructure Economics Centre, PhD in Economics (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Ekaterina V. Vikhareva – Lead Expert of the Infrastructure Economics Centre (Perm, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Anastasia A. Glazunova – Project Manager of the Infrastructure Economics Centre (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Prospects of Russian economic development will face both internal and external constraints. For example, imbalances in the global financial system are getting momentum, one can expect rise in inequality, social and political instability and populism, geopolitical tensions and trade wars. In case of Russian economy, the negative external context is exacerbated by green global energy. Among internal constraints for the long-term growth are adverse demographic trends, low investment activity, high proportion of the state in the economy, administrative barriers and inefficient institutions.

Key words: covid-crisis, post-crisis recovery, potential growth.

Tax Compliance: Way from Enhanced Relationships between Taxpayers and Tax Authorities to International Joint Compliance Programs

Antonina D. Levashenko – Senior Researcher, Head of Russia-OECD Center, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Alexandra A. Koval – Younger Researcher of Russia-OECD Center, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

The concept of cooperative tax compliance has evolved from enhanced relationships between taxpayers and tax authorities to comprehensive programs of joint tax compliance, including international. Russia is already taking steps to develop tax compliance, which is primarily associated with improving the institution of tax monitoring. It is necessary to continue to build tax compliance standards, including for small and medium-sized enterprises, establish rules for assessing tax risks of customers for banks, implement programs to support Russian companies in disputes with tax authorities abroad, and ensure active participation of Russia in international joint compliance programs.

The article was prepared as part of the research work of the state assignment of the RANEPA.

Key words: tax compliance, cooperative compliance, OECD, ICAP, tax monitoring.

Monetary Policy and Inflation in June 2020

Alexandra V. Bozhechkova – Head of Monetary Policy Department of the Gaidar Institute; Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Pavel V. Trunin – Head of Center for Macroeconomics and Finance of the Gaidar Institute; Director of Center for Central Banks Studies of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Doctor of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Despite large scale external shocks seen in February-March 2020, there was no spike in inflation in Russia and at the period-end of June, the annual inflation rate came to merely 3.2%. After a short-term price surge, which was observed in March-April 2020, downward pressure on prices was exerted by a weak consumer demand, ruble’s appreciation, as well as decline in inflationary expectations of the population and businesses. In these circumstances the Bank of Russia cut its key rate to 4.5%, i.e. to all-time minimum.

Key words: inflation, basic inflation, annual inflation, prices, consumer prices, monetary policy, key interest, rate, target, Bank of Russia.

Financial Structure and Its Influence on Economic Growth and Investment Stability

Yury A. Danilov – Leading Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Alina V. Podlesnaya – Graduate of the Master’s program «Economic Policy», Faculty of Economics of the Lomonosov Moscow State University (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

The article examines the influence of the financial structure on the volatility of economic growth and on the volatility of the dynamics of fixed capital investments. Based on the analysis of the literature, a hypothesis was formulated that in economies with a market-based financial sector, macroeconomic volatility is lower. This hypothesis was confirmed within the framework of regression equations in which the dependent variables were the standard deviation of the annual growth rates of real GDP per capita and the standard deviation of the annual growth rates of fixed capital investments. The banking segment increases the volatility of macroeconomic parameters, while non-bank financial institutions and financial markets reduce it.

At the same time, the significance of the influence of financial structure indicators on the volatility of macroeconomic parameters turned out to be lower than the significance of the indicators of volatility of the terms of trade and investment openness. However, given that the optimization of the financial structure is available to the authorities implementing economic policy and does not have negative consequences, it can be a very effective tool for protecting against the impact of external shocks on the Russian economy.

Key words: financial structure, GDP, volatility of economic dynamics, investment volatility, financial sector, mitigation of external shocks, banking segment, financial markets, non-bank financial institutions.

Russia’s Balance of Payments in Q2 2020

Alexandra V. Bozhechkova – Head of Monetary Policy Department of the Gaidar Institute; Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Pavel V. Trunin – Head of Center for Macroeconomics and Finance of the Gaidar Institute; Director of Center for Сentral Banks Studies of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Doctor of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

In Q2 2020, Russia’s positive trade balance plunged due to a decrease in quantum shipments and export prices on commodities exported by Russia. In April-June, net outflow of capital was observed on the back of priority growth of foreign financial assets of non-oil and gas sector, as well as contraction of banks’ foreign liabilities. Measures adopted by the monetary authorities in spring 2020 aimed at maintaining financial sustainability translated into keeping the ruble’s exchange rate close to equilibrium values. As a result, in Q2 2020 the exchange rate averaged Rb72 per USD.

Key words: balance of payments, export, import, current account transaction, ruble exchange rate, outflow/inflow of capital, Bank of Russia.

Survey of Current Business (May-August 2020)

Sergey P. Aukutsionek – Head of Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Andrey S. Yegorov – Senior Researcher of the Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Inessa A. Bachirova – Senior Researcher of the Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Stanislav V. Belyakov – Researcher of the Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Judging by the greater part of the indicators surveyed by REB, May 2020 appeared to be only slightly better than April. At the same time, expectations for the three-month perspective turned out to be much more optimistic than it was a month ago. Thus, the diffusion index of the expected in three months output added 14 points, similar index of order-books level added 10 points, of financial condition – 8 points. In May quite low were the diffusion indices of output and input prices: the first one reached 43 (a minimum value for 2 years) and the second one – 59 (minimum for 12 years).

Key words: Russia, industry, industrial enterprises, price level, wages, employment, output, investment, indebtedness to banks, order-book level, stocks of finished products, capacity utilization rate, financial situation, production restrictive factors.