Regions’ Budgets in the Wake of the Crisis

Alexander N. Deryugin – Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration; Researcher of the Gaidar Institute (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

At first ten months of 2020 in relation to the corresponding period of 2019, revenues of the consolidated regions’ budgets rose by 4.8%. Despite the unfolding «second wave» of the pandemic, own tax and non-tax revenues of the consolidated budget of Russia’s subjects have been sustainable and do not reveal high rates of decline in autumn this year.

By contrast with previous crisis periods, current regional policy of the RF Government in 2020 opts for provision of additional governmental fiscal transfers against budget loans which allows subjects to execute all current expenditure commitments practically without raising debt burden. Change in the expenditure structure of regional consolidated budgets has an obvious anti-crisis character. Expenditures have been growing significantly faster than inflation. Regional debt burden stays at a rather low level.

Key words: regions’ budgets, regional budgets revenues, regional budgets expenditures, regional public debt, public loans, crisis.

Russian Industry in November 2020

Sergey V. Tsukhlo – Head of Business Surveys Department of the Gaidar Institute, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

The enterprises needed three months to overcome the April 2020 decline in demand, and in July, the estimates reached the pre-crisis level. Then there was a three-month pause, followed by growing demand, according to manufacturers’ estimates. The growth rate of sales increased by 9 p.p. in November after an interruption in August-October.

Key words: Russian industrial sector, demand, stocks of finished products, stocks of raw materials, inputs, inputs growth constraints, personnel, investment, crisis.

Integration of Young People into the Labor Market and the Specific Features of their Employment during a Pandemic

Tatyana L. Klyachko – Director of Center of the Economics for Continuing Education of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Doctor of Economic Sciences, Professor (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Dmitry M. Loginov – Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Elena V. Lomteva – Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Pedagogical Sciences, Associate Professor (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Elena A. Semionova – Leading Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

During a pandemic, the majority of young people find a job by using their connections. The relative share of those who believed that it was difficult to find a job that matched their chosen specialty was 40% among the surveyed young people who had received a high-quality education and worked outside of their specialty. 14.2% of the respondents experienced delays in their salary payments. Most of all, young people are afraid of not meeting the expectations of their future employers, not finding a job, and not finding a well-paid job.

The article was prepared in the framework of research work conducted within RANEPA state order.

Key words: young people, employment, secondary vocational education institutions, universities and colleges, pandemic.

Application of the Hedonic Method: The Example of Russian Market of Household Appliances

Vadim Ye. Zyamalov – Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Marina Yu. Turuntseva – Head of Macroeconomic Forecasting Department of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration; Head of Short-term Forecasting Department of the Gaidar Institute, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Since the late 80s, a method designed to consider the fact that the quality of goods on the market is not constant has been introduced into the practice of foreign statistical agencies. The hedonic method, which finally took shape in the work of Zvi Griliches, is designed to take these changes in quality into account. A large body of work has been done to show the presence of index bias caused by hedonic effects.

Using the example of TVs, this paper provides an illustration of the hedonic method on the Russian market of household appliances. The research based on the data by Yandex.Market portal showed the principal applicability of the method for the Russian market.

The article was written based on the RANEPA state assignment research programme.

Key words: price indices, characteristics of quality, hedonic method.

Sustainability of the Value-Added Tax Revenues: Myth or Reality?

Sergey G. Belev – Head of Budget Policy Department of the Gaidar Institute; Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Ilya А. Sokolov – Head of Budget Policy Department of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration; Director of the Institute for Macroeconomic Research, Russian Foreign Trade Academy, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Olga V. Suchkova – Younger Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration; Senior lecturer of Department of Mathematical Methods in Economics, Faculty of Economics of Lomonosov Moscow State University (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

The 2020 pandemic has put on the agenda the issue of the sustainability of the Russian budget system again. The reduction in revenues occurred in almost all taxes received by the federal budget. Preliminary data on the federal budget implementation show that ratio of VAT revenues to GDP has decreased the least. In this paper, however, it was shown that VAT revenues are both significant and quite procyclical, which in turn increases the requirements for the strictness of the budget rule and the discipline of its application. Otherwise, there will be an inevitable deterioration in long-term fiscal sustainability.

The article was written on the basis of the RANEPA state assignment research programme.

Key words: Value-added tax, fiscal procyclicality, budget sustainability.

Russian Economic Development Assistance in 2019

Yury K. Zaitsev – Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Alexander Yu. Knobel – Head of Foreign Trade Department of the Gaidar Institute; Director of Center for Foreign Trade Department of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration; Director of the Institute for International Economics and Finance, Russian Foreign Trade Academy, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

In 2019, the Government of the Russian Federation increased allocations for official development assistance (ODA). Its amount exceeded $1 bn. However, real amount of Russian economic assistance was higher than the one figured in the OECD statistical data that does not record budget transfers and assistance to unrecognized states.

Bilateral assistance accounted for the highest share (61,2%) of the Russian assistance. Moreover, Armenia, Kirgizia, and Tajikistan in addition to bilateral projects receive Russian assistance through international organizations. Finally, Russia wrote off debts to around $425 mn last year.

The article was prepared in the framework of research work conducted within RANEPA state order.

Key words: official development assistance, ODA, international development assistance, International Development Association, bilateral assistance, developing countries.

Global Experience in Digital Trade Regulation

Timur M. Aliev – Senior Researcher of the Russian APEC Study Center, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration; Senior Researcher of the Institute for International Economics and Finance, Russian Foreign Trade Academy, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Olga D. Ismagilova – Researcher of the Russian APEC Study Center, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration; Researcher of the Institute for International Economics and Finance, Russian Foreign Trade Academy (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Veronika N. Popova – Junior Researcher of the Russian APEC Study Center, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration; Junior Researcher of the Institute for International Economics and Finance, Russian Foreign Trade Academy (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Digitalization has a significant impact on international trade and entails the need to review traditional trade policy measures and to develop new regulation on various issues. This article provides an overview of countries’ existing approaches to regulating digital trade and international methods for assessing regulatory barriers to its development.

The article was written based on the RANEPA state assignment research programme.

Key words: digital trade, e-commerce regulation, digital trade barriers, digital trade restrictions, e-commerce requirements, digital «openness» of countries.

Russia’s Foreign Trade in 2020: Preliminary Results

Alexander Yu. Knobel – Head of Foreign Trade Department of the Gaidar Institute; Director of Center for Foreign Trade Department of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration; Director of the Institute for International Economics and Finance, Russian Foreign Trade Academy, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Alexander S. Firanchuk – Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Exports of energy and commodities fell by 36,5% (45% of 2013 levels) in the first nine months of 2020 compared to the corresponding period of the previous year. Non-commodity non-energy exports (NEEs) rose 1.8% due to a six-fold increase in gold sales. Excluding gold exports, the NNE decreased by 8,0%. The decline in exports of energy products, metals, chemicals and timber was due to a deterioration in the price situation. Exports of high-tech goods decreased by 17% due to a decrease in physical export volumes. Imports for January-September 2020 decreased by 6,9%.

Key words: foreign trade, export, import, pandemic.

Mortgage Lending in January-September 2020

Sergey A. Zubov – Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Сandidate of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

On the back of the lending market interest rate cuts and implementation of the subsidized mortgage program (mortgage loans at the interest rate of 6.5% per annum for home buying on the primary housing market), real-estate market demand picked up. In Q1–Q3, 2020, banks increased substantially mortgage lending volumes, having surpassed the high outturns seen in 2018. The downside of the lending-based demand stimulation was the appreciation of prices both on the primary and secondary housing markets and high household debt load. This makes the money authorities point to the need of wrapping up the subsidized mortgage government program in the near future.

Key words: Russian banking sector, mortgage lending, subsidized mortgage program, household debt load, Bank of Russia, pandemic.

Trends of the World Economy Development and Prospects of Post-Crisis Recovery

Alexey S. Evseev – Younger Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Farida Ya. Iskhakova – Younger Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Pavel V. Trunin – Head of Center for Macroeconomics and Finance of the Gaidar Institute; Director of Center for Сentral Banks Studies of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Doctor of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Q3 2020 demonstrated higher than expected economic activity recovery rate in many countries. This growth has only partially offset a deep recession seen in Q2. Output stays at markedly lower pre-crisis levels in the majority of countries. «Second wave» of the pandemic raises uncertainty regarding prospects of further economic recovery. According to the latest assessments, expected global GDP decrease for 2020 has been revised from 5.0 to 4.5% with 5% growth in 2021. New quarantine restrictions put in place in autumn pose risks for a repeated significant recession in economic activity and unemployment growth and as a result 2021 projects can be revised downwards.

Key words: world economy, post-crisis recovery of world economy, «second wave» of pandemic.

Survey of Current Business (September-December 2020)

Sergey P. Aukutsionek – Head of Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Andrey S. Yegorov – Senior Researcher of the Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Tatyana V. Serzhantova – Senior Researcher of the Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Stanislav V. Belyakov – Researcher of the Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

In September 2020, the most noticeable changes occurred with inventory indicators: the diffusion index decreased by 8 points, reaching 34. It was lower only three times in 28 years of research. And the relative value of inventories decreased by 22 percentage points to 71% (this is the second lowest value in the entire history of observations). The diffusion index of the order-book level shows positive dynamics, while the diffusion index of the expected in three months output, on the contrary, lost 17 points.

Key words: Russia, industry, industrial enterprises, price level, wages, employment, output, investment, indebtedness to banks, order-book level, stocks of finished products, capacity utilization rate, financial situation, production restrictive factors.