GDP: Special Features of Using in Analytical Practice

Alexander S. Abroskin – Leading Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Doctor of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Natalia A. Abroskina – Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

The methodological aspects of the problems under investigation are considered in the context of GDP compilation specificities in line with the System of National Accounts based on the output method, the one most widely applied in international statistics. The examples of international and Russian practices presented in the paper illustrate the limitations of the GDP analytical functions when the classical version of this index is applied in macroeconomic analysis and comparative studies. These limitations give rise to ‘statistical paradoxes’ in international statistics, which can be explained, among other things, by the insufficient correctness of GDP as an indicator of the actual dynamics of socio-economic development. 

Key words: gross value added, gross domestic product, international statistics, methodological framework, output method, socioeconomic development, statistical paradoxes, sustainable development.

Russia at the International Tourism Market

Yury K. Zaitsev – Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration; Deputy Director of the Institute of International Economics and Finance, Russian Foreign Trade Academy, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Olga D. Ismagilova – Researcher of the Institute of International Economics and Finance, Russian Foreign Trade Academy; Researcher of the Russian APEC Research Center of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Russia plays an important role on the international tourism market, above all as a consumer of foreign tourist services. The Russian Federation is among the top-7 countries in terms of the number of tourists going abroad. Expenditures of Russian tourists abroad account for about 2% of all international tourist expenditures, while Russia accounts for only 1% of world income from foreign tourists. The Russian Federation is also among the top-20 countries by the number of international tourist arrivals.

Key words: tourism services, tourism sector, competitiveness, international tourism, export and import of services, international tourist arrivals and departures.

Metro Development in Moscow and the Cost of Residential Real Estate - is There Still an Impact?

Maria E. Ivanova – Junior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Yury Yu. Ponomarev – Head of Department of Infrastructure and Spatial Research of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration; Senior Researcher of the Gaidar Institute, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

The article presents current (as of the end of 2018 – middle of 2019) empirical estimates of the impact of the number of metro accessibility and other main characteristics of real estate in Moscow on its value, and also shows the heterogeneity of this relationship in terms of price segments in the Moscow real estate market.

Key words: real estate market, metro development, hedonic model, real estate price.

Have Sanctions Been Losing its Effect on the Foreign Debt of Russian Companies?

Ekaterina M. Baeva – Postgraduate Student of the Chair «Finance and Credit», Saint Petersburg State University (Saint Petersburg, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Every new loop of economical limitations cause intense discussions regarding the effect of the sanctions on foreign debt of the affected companies. The article reviews if the affected companies could adapt to the new reality of the Eurobond market limitations, which have been introduced in 2014 as a response for Russian foreign policy. The second part of the article consists of the analysis of the reaction of the debt market on the sactions-affiliated news. The article revealed that despite the decrease in the intensity and scale of sanctions, later sanctions are still able to have a negative impact on the activities of Russian companies. They affect the entire market, including the companies that have not been listed in the ISS lists.

Key words: sanctions, market reaction to sanctions, bond market, eurobonds.

Toughening Regulatory Requirements Will Change the Insurance Market

Ekaterina A. Pospelova – Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

The Central Bank intends to amend the assessment of the financial stability of insurance companies and impose restrictions on investment from mid-2021. New requirements to quality of assets and diversification of investment tools can potentially lead to the increase the state-owned insurance companies on finance market, reduce competition, and the savings assets of insurance companies in state debt.

Key words: insurance companies, insurance market, nationalization, investment, long-term investments, institutional investors, prudential rules.

Analysis of the Contribution of Productivity Components to the Formation of Competitiveness of Russian Exporters

Dmitry E. Kuznetsov – Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

On the basis of an analysis of the spatial variation of Russian export flows it is demonstrated that the heterogeneity of the specific competences of enterprises operating in the manufacturing industry exercised by them in the course of producing each type of goods makes a slightly greater contribution to the variation of export flows than does the heterogeneity of the factory-level performance levels. These results indicate that, in spite of the increasing role of information technologies in business process management, it is the technologies applied in the production of each type of goods that remain the most important factor responsible for shaping their competitiveness in global markets.

Key words: export, manufacturing, microdata, multiproduct firms, productivity, heterogeneous trade theory.

Evolution of the Russian Banking System in 2013-2019: Key Facts and Trends

Kirill D. Shilov – Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Andrey V. Zubarev – Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

In this study we analyse the changes that occurred in the Russian banking system in 2013–2019. Trends are revealed in the dynamics and structure of bank liabilities and assets, in particular, the growth of long-term loans at the expense of short-term liabilities increase. An econometric analysis of factors that significantly affected default probability of Russian banks in 3 sub-periods is conducted: from mid-2013 to the end of 2016, during 2017 and from 2018 to mid-2019. The results indicate that the reasons for bank defaults have changed recently.

Key words: Russian banking system, defaults, sanation, central bank, bank balances.

Interest Rate of the Bank of Russia: in Search of a Neutral Level

Tatiana V. Evdokimova – Chief Economist on Russia of Nordea Bank, PhD in Economics (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Grigory A. Zhirnov – Junior Analyst of Nordea Bank (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Since September 2019, the key rate of the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) has been in a range of 6–7%, which is viewed by the regulator as neutral. As the actual rate has entered the neutral range the adequacy of the current estimates has become particularly topical. Most external factors now speak in favor of a lower neutral rate. Internal factors, however, don’t give too many reasons for a similar revision. The authors believe that taken together external and internal factors justify a revision of a lower range bound from 6% to 5,5% by the middle of 2020.

Key words: neutral rate, monetary policy, central bank, country risk premium.

Survey of Current Business (October 2019 - January 2020)

Sergey P. Aukutsionek – Head of Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Andrey S. Yegorov – Senior Researcher of the Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Tatyana V. Serzhantova – Senior Researcher of the Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Stanislav V. Belyakov – Researcher of the Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

In October 2019, the diffusion index of order-books level increased by 9 percentage points and equaled to 48; it hadn’t been this high for 15 months. The diffusion index of expenditures for equipment, on the contrary, decreased by 10 points, falling to the lowest level in 8 months.

After 9 months of positive dynamics, the share of enterprises that do not purchase equipment for 2 or more consecutive months increased by 18 percentage points.

Compared to July 2019, approval of the government’s economic policy increased markedly: the share of those who approve of it increased by 13 points and reached 19%, and the share of those who do not approve of it decreased by 14 points and reached 24%.

Key words: Russia, industry, industrial enterprises, price level, wages, employment, output, investment, indebtedness to banks, order-book level, stocks of finished products, capacity utilization rate, financial situation, production restrictive factors.