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Assessment of the Situation in the Banking Sector

Andrey V. Zubarev – Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Kirill D. Shilov – Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

The purpose of this study is to analyze the current status of Russian banks on the basis of their monthly balance sheets and to assess a number of risks that may arise for Russian banks and the banking system as a whole.

Our analysis is based on data entered into Reporting Form 101 ‘Trial Balance Sheet on the Accounting Records of a Credit Institution’ posted by the Bank of Russia on a monthly basis to its official website. The data aggregation of first-order accounts in Reporting Form 101 is consistent with the banking analytics methodology suggested at KUAP.RU.

We studied separately the two main risks that the banking system is prone to be exposed to during a crisis period (past due debt growth risk and foreign exchange risk). Using a number of prerequisites, we plotted the scenario-based forecast movement of the performance indicators of individual banks through each of the two risk channels, and then summarized the results. Thus we obtained the quantitative estimates of capital losses for several biggest banks under that scenario.

Key words: Russia’s banking sector, risks of the banking system, Bank of Russia, coronavirus (pandemic).