Scenarios of the Development of Economic Situation in Russia in 2020-2021 and Challenges for Economic Policy

Alexey L. Vedev – Head of the Center of Structural Research of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration; Leading Researcher of the Gaidar Institute, Doctor of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Sergey M. Drobyshevsky – Scientific Director of the Gaidar Institute; Head of Macroeconomic Research Department of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Doctor of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Alexander Yu. Knobel – Head of Foreign Trade Department of the Gaidar Institute; Director of Center for Foreign Trade Department of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Ilya A. Sokolov – Head of Budget Policy Department of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration; Director of Institute of Macroeconomic Research, Russian Foreign Trade Academy of the Ministry for the Economic Development of the Russian Federation, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Pavel V. Trunin – Head of Center for Macroeconomics and Finance of the Gaidar Institute; Leading Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Doctor of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

In 2020–2021 Russian economy will be under the effect of three shocks adversely affecting the dynamic of the principal indicators of socio-economic development. Depending on the scenario of external conditions (pandemic timeline, crude oil prices) decrease in Russian GDP in 2020 can constitute from 7 to 12%, this being said, in 2021 the economy is expected to grow by 4.5–7.0%.

In this context, budget deficit of the extended government in 2020 can according to the worst scenario exceed 11% of GDP even without bailout and stimulus package to finance which in addition to NWF the government will have to borrow on the domestic debt market in the amounts exceeding risks of sustainable public debt of Russia.

In 2021, budget execution will improve, however, even with oil prices staying at the base price according to fiscal rule deficit can amount to 3.2–4.0% of GDP.

Key words: macroeconomics, socio-economic development, scenarios of development for 2000–2001.