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Retail Banking Operations in January-August 2020

Sergey A. Zubov – Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Growth rates of the credit portfolio have notably decreased compared to the pre-pandemic period. This is due to a decline in demand for credits from the population and more stringent bank requirements to the borrowers. In the meantime, despite a reduction in the interest rates and imposition of a tax on bank deposits interest, banks have failed to ramp up retail deposits volumes. This was mainly due to the return of the part of population to the savings behavior pattern during the pandemic.

Key words: Russia’s banking sector, net income of banks, bank assets, bank liabilities, retail loans.

Survey of Current Business (August-November 2020)

Sergey P. Aukutsionek – Head of Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Andrey S. Yegorov – Senior Researcher of the Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Inessa A. Bachirova – Senior Researcher of the Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Stanislav V. Belyakov – Researcher of the Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

In August 2020, employment indicators improved markedly: the diffusion index added 13 points and reached 56. Its expected in three months’ value also increased, exceeding 50% for the first time in 2 years. By November, REB’s respondents expected an increase in prices’ growth, especially for purchased goods. Among the factors restricting investment, the uncertainty of the overall situation for the first time found itself at the first place in the rating, adding 16 points per quarter.

Key words: Russia, industry, industrial enterprises, price level, wages, employment, output, investment, indebtedness to banks, order-book level, stocks of finished products, capacity utilization rate, financial situation, production restrictive factors.

Pandemic and Regions: January-August 2020 Results

Natalia V. Zubarevich – Main Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Doctor of Geographic Sciences, Professor (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Industrial production, especially export-oriented and related to the auto industry, has declined in most regions of Russia. The decline in investment was accompanied by their concentration in the largest metropolitan areas and oil and gas production areas. The introduction of housing was declining in most subjects of the Russian Federation. The increase in underemployment was supplemented by a rapid increase in registered unemployment. The decline in the total revenues of the consolidated regional budgets was offset by federal assistance, but not to all regions in full. Due to the rapid growth of regional budgets for health, social policy and the economy, most of the Russian Federation’s subjects will end 2020 with a budget deficit.

Key words: regions, socio-economic situation of regions, pandemic.

Industrial Production Dynamics in Q3 2020

Andrey S. Kaukin – Head of Department for System Analysis of Sectoral Markets of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration; Head of Center for Real Sector of the Gaidar Institute, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Eugenia M. Miller – Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

In Q3 2020, the extractive sector experienced near-zero growth rates, while part of the manufacturing sector showed small growth. Analysis of the trend components of production indices by industry does not give grounds to speak about a noticeable recovery of industries after the recession in the first half of 2020, associated with the spread of coronavirus.

Key words: industry, industrial sectors, extractive industry, manufacturing, Rosstat, coronavirus.

Social Parameters of the Economy in January-September 2020: Incomes of Population and Labor Market

Olga I. Izryadnova – Head of Structural Policy Department of the Gaidar Institute; Leading Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Maria V. Kazakova – Deputy Director of Science at the Center for Regional Policy of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: kazakova @ranepa.ru

Nadezhda P. Volovik – Head of Foreign Trade Department of the Gaidar Institute; Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

The central issue of overcoming social isolation fallout during the coronavirus pandemic is the development of measures for support of the living standard of population and reduction in unemployment risks.

At the period-end of January-September 2020, real disposable cash income decreased by 4.3% on the back of the growing total unemployment rate up to 6.3%. Dominating role of earned income in the income structure of the population coupled with increased importance of labor market regulation and laying groundwork for productive employment of the population were observed. Crisis feature on the labor market in current year is determined by high localization of employed in the segment of small and medium-sized enterprises and individual entrepreneurship.

The article was written on the basis of the RANEPA state assignment research programme.

Key words: social parameters, incomes of population, labor market, unemployment rate, relief measures for business, coronavirus.

Opportunities and Risks for the Development of Russian-British Trade and Economic Relations after Brexit

Alexander A. Pakhomov – Leading Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Doctor of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: р This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

In the context of Brexit, the UK is leaving the scope of the EU’s single trade policy and has begun to form a sovereign foreign economic strategy. This provides for a partial geographical reorientation of priorities in choosing partners in connection with the revision of existing relations with EU States, and the search for new markets and suppliers.

In this regard, despite mutual trade and political sanctions, it seems that new opportunities are emerging for the development and diversification of Russian-British trade and economic relations. Although there are risks of increasing political confrontation between the two countries.

The article was written on the basis of the RANEPA state assignment research programme.

Key words: Russian Federation, Great Britain, trade policy, Brexit, trade and political sanctions, investments.

National Project «Tourism»: a Perspective Vision

Vladimir M. Komarov – Director of Centre for Regional Development Strategies of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Natalia A. Moskvitina – Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Liana M. Sargsyan – Senior Expert of the Russian Export Center. E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

The article proposes prospective vision of Russia’s new national project in the sphere of tourism based on the study of foreign strategies’ theoretical approaches and best practice. The national project will be developed on the basis of “sustainable tourism” with the use of interdepartmental holistic approach as well as with the focus on the domestic tourism development ensuring the entire tourist lifecycle. Separate attention should be paid to the revival of medical tourism and concentration of resources in priority territories possessing obvious comparative advantages.

The article was written on the basis of the RANEPA state assignment research programme.

Key words: strategic planning, tourism, national project, historical and cultural heritage, wellness care, national parks.

Analysis of the Impact of Financial News on the Exchange Rate

Diana A. Petrova – Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

In this article, indicators of sentiment in financial markets are assessed based on text analysis of news articles by a major online media RBC during 2013-2020. The impact of news indicators on the nominal USD/RUB exchange rate is assessed using EGARCH (1,1) model. The results showed that the increased uncertainty in financial markets causes depreciation of the ruble and an increase its volatility.

Key words: text analysis, topic modeling, exchange rate, machine learning, EGARCH.

Evaluation of the Concentration on Gasoline Retail Market in Russia

Dmitry S. Gordeev – Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration; Senior Researcher of the Institute of International Economics and Finance, Russian Foreign Trade Academy, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Ekaterina A. Kosukhina – Younger Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration; Postgraduate Student of the Gaidar Institute (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Russian retail gasoline market is highly concentrated. Vertically integrated oil companies are able to discriminate independent petroleum stations. They increase prices for motor fuels for independent companies and decrease for subsidiaries. Higher costs on fuels for independent companies reduce their ability to compete. It results in either closing of such independent companies or their takeover by vertically integrated oil companies. Moreover, few big companies can act like a cartel, reducing economic potential of Russian Federation. In this paper concentration of gasoline retail market in Russian regions is evaluated. Gasoline prices in regions are shown to be correlated with market concentration.

The article was written on the basis of the RANEPA state assignment research programme.

Key words: petroleum products, oil products, vertically integrated oil companies, competition, concentration.

Ruble Exchange Rate Pass-through into Export Prices in 2012-2020: Industry and Geographical Specific

Alexander S. Firanchuk – Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Assessments of exchange rate pass-through – export price reaction to changes in the ruble exchange rate – are necessary for export projection especially for the period of high volatility of the national currency. On average, dollar prices of non-fuel exports moderately responded to changes in the ruble exchange rate in the medium term (half-year) perspective (34%) and fuel prices have practically not responded to ruble exchange rate movements. Non-fuel industries demonstrate marked flexibility in the pace and degree of price adjustment following changes in the exchange rate. With a breakdown into groups of countries, prices of non-fuel products are highly sensitive to the ruble exchange rate in shipments to CIS countries (53%), to a lesser degree – to the EU countries (41%), and least of all – in shipments to other countries (17%).

The article was written on the basis of the RANEPA state assignment research programme.

Key words: international trade, export prices, exchange rate, non-fuel exports, exchange rate pass-through.

Prospects for Using SNA Applications in Analyzing the Impact of Economic Digitalization on the Dynamics of Macroeconomic Indicators

Alexander S. Abroskin – Leading Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Doctor of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Natalia A. Abroskina – Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

The main drawback of the current practice of registering digitalization processes in the Russian economy and estimates of its size consists in the limited possibility of application of attained estimates in complex macroeconomic analysis. The article analyses methodological aspects of use of system of national accounts (SNA) apps as a basis for registering and analyzing digitalization processes on macroeconomic level. In the paper, SNA is addressed as an open and evolving system that under certain adjustments can be applied for registration of economic operations linked to the performance of digital economy and its structural elements.

The article was written on the basis of the RANEPA state assignment research programme.

Key words: macroeconomic analysis, SNA applications, system of national accounts, tables of formation and use of resources, digital economy.

Execution of the Federal Budget in January-September 2020: Record Borrowings and Growing Expenditures

Sergey G. Belev – Head of Budget Policy Department of the Gaidar Institute; Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Tatyana V. Tischenko – Senior Researcher of the Gaidar Institute; Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

At nine months-end 2020, revenues of the federal budget contracted against the same period of the previous year by Rb1,818.6 bn and expenditures went up by Rb3,040.9 bn; the budget has been executed with a deficit amounting to Rb1,773.3 bn. Contraction of revenues and ramping up of expenditures resulted in record non-oil and gas deficit which resulted in raising debt financing.

Key words: federal budget, revenue, oil and gas revenues, non-oil and gas revenues, expenditure, taxes.