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Change in Orphanhood Scale in Russia in the Context of Deinstitutionalization Reform

Alla O. Makarentseva – Main Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Ramilya R. Khasanova – Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Presently Russia is undertaking an ambitious reform in the sphere of orphans and children without parents. From 2014 a dismantling of a large network of child-care facilities has been taking place with development of the institute of substitute families and creation of services of support of families with children for preventing social orphanage cases both primary and secondary. All this make urgent research in the sphere of child-care. Present work justifies the need for further development of family forms for children. Moreover, authors demonstrate urgency in resolving issues of subordination of various types of child-care facilities and setting up statistical recording in this sphere.

The article was written on the basis of the RANEPA state assignment research programme.

Key words: orphans, children without parental care, family, deprivation of parental rights, restriction of rights.

Survey of Current Business (July-October 2020)

Sergey P. Aukutsionek – Head of Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Andrey S. Yegorov – Senior Researcher of the Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Inessa A. Bachirova – Senior Researcher of the Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Stanislav V. Belyakov – Researcher of the Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

In July 2020, the diffusion index of expenditures for equipment continued to grow (+6 points) and reached the highest value in the entire history of observations (45). On the contrary, the share of enterprises that do not purchase equipment for two or more months in a row has significantly decreased: losing 9 points, it dropped to only 22%; it was less only once – in January of this year. The share of enterprises in «good» or «normal» financial condition increased by 18 points, while the share of respondents who consider the threat of bankruptcy of their enterprises to be real in the next 1–2 years decreased to 0.

Key words: Russia, industry, industrial enterprises, price level, wages, employment, output, investment, indebtedness to banks, order-book level, stocks of finished products, capacity utilization rate, financial situation, production restrictive factors.

Population Arrears in Payment for Housing and Utility Services in the First Half of 2020: a Familiar Track

Aleksandra Ya. Burdyak – Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

In the first half of the year, the population’ arrears for housing and communal services amounted to 6.3% of the charges. Although it increased compared to 2017–2019, the current situation is similar to the first half of the year in 2013–2016, when the debt for housing and utility services was 6.1–6.6% of accrued payments. The organizational form of providing housing and utility services does not affect the share of unpaid debt: in the Russian Federation, on average, it is the same both for services provided through intermediary organizations and for services provided directly by resource-supplying organizations to the population.

According to the Person, Family, and Society survey (Spring 2020), during the past year 17% of respondents had debts for housing and utility services due to financial reasons. Late payment for housing and utility services is twice more likely than on average among single parents with children and in the first quintile group by income. Families with children are 1.5 times more likely to be in arrears. In contrast, a pensioner in family halves the likelihood of arrears for housing and utility services.

The article was written on the basis of the RANEPA state assignment research programme.

Key words: housing, payment for housing, population arrears for housing and utility services, regional analysis, pandemic time.

Uncertainty Indicators of Russian Industrial Sector

Sergey V. Tsukhlo – Head of Business Surveys Department of the Gaidar Institute, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Business survey laboratory of Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy conducted on-line computation of uncertainty indicators for the Russian industrial sector. As it appears from this computation, in 2020 the peak of uncertainty in projections for demand, output, and employment accounted for May. If in the wake of April lockdown and related economic shock the majority of enterprises held together in their negative projections, then from May the situation commenced to change for the better.

Key words: Russian industry, demand, output, employment, uncertainty index.

Crisis 2020: Impacts and Risks for Russian Pension System

Yury M. Gorlin – Deputy Director of the Institute for Social Analysis and Forecasting, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Victor Yu. Lyashok – Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Epidemiological crisis 2020 had a significant impact on multiple spheres of social and economic life, including Russian pension system. However, from perspective of pension recipients, this impact was minimum and associated only with lockdown measures, although the pension rate remained unchanged. Meanwhile, the reduction in payroll budget and decrease in premium rate for small and medium-sized business substantially increase the dependence of pension system on federal budget.

The article was written on the basis of the RANEPA state assignment research programme.

Key words: pensions, system of mandatory pension insurance, the rate of insurance contributions, transfers, payroll budget, small and medium-sized business, coronavirus-induced crisis.

World’s Oil Market in May-August 2020

Andrey S. Kaukin – Head of Department for System Analysis of Sectoral Markets of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration; Head of Center for Real Sector of the Gaidar Institute, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Eugenia M. Miller – Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Plunge in the oil prices seen in H1 2020, induced by the coronavirus infection was coupled with the lack of an agreement on the prolongation of OPEC+ deal. The latter has aggravated competition on the global oil market and led to a significant growth in commercial stocks of crude oil and oil products. The situation stabilized following the resumption on OPEC+ deal on cutting production coupled with the gradual easing of quarantine measures in a number of countries. Further dynamics in the oil industry will depend on compliance with the OPEC+ agreement and revival of demand.

Key words: oil, production of oil, OPEC+, oil depots, coronavirus.

Demographic Situation and Socio-Economic Development of Russian Regions in the First Half of 2020

Alla O. Makarentseva – Leading Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Nikita V. Mkrtchyan – Leading Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Geographic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Natalia V. Zubarevich – Main Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Doctor of Geographic Sciences, Professor (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Russia’s natural loss of population in the first seven months of 2020 was 316.3 thousand people; it almost reached the level of all twelve months of 2019. The highest number of deaths per months was registered in July – 181.5 thousand people. In July, 130,700 births were registered. In January-July 2020 there were 48.7 thousand fewer births and 57.9 thousand more deaths than in the same period in 2019. Both of these factors have accelerated the natural decline of the population. Although the increase in deaths is temporary due to the coronavirus pandemic, the decline in births is a long-term trend.

The migration growth of the Russian population in the first half of 2020 decreased to 48.9 thousand people, compensating only 18.4% of the natural loss of the population. In the first half of the year the number of recorded in-country migrations decreased by 21%. In the second quarter it has dropped by almost a third. Population movement to the largest centres (Moscow and St. Petersburg) has temporarily stopped.

As of 1st August 2020, the number of foreigners temporarily residing in Russia was the lowest for the last eight years. The number of labour migrants declined by 11% compared to 01.08.2019. So far there has been no significant reduction in the share of legalized migrants on the labour market, but in the coming months such a possibility is not excluded.

The severe phase of the coronavirus crisis in the second quarter of 2020 hit the market services sector in all regions, especially Moscow. In January-July, industrial decline continued in more than half of the regions. Housing construction was reduced in 2/3 of the regions. Almost half of the regions reported a decline in investment. Retail trade is recovering from the crisis faster: in July one third of the regions overcame the crisis recession. Two trends emerged in the regional labour markets. Registered unemployment increased almost everywhere as a result of institutional factors. There has been an increase in underemployment, it was the most noticeable in 30% of the regions, including the problematic industrial regions of the Federation, the largest agglomerations and the Crimea.

The crisis drop in regional budget revenues in the second quarter of this year was largely offset by transfers from the federal budget. Regional expenditures in the first half of the year increased by 19% compared to January-June 2019. Health care was a top priority (85% growth), while expenditures on the national economy were the second priority (22% growth). This is largely due to the federal transfers’ structure.

The article was written on the basis of the RANEPA state assignment research programme.

Key words: birth rate, mortality, migration, regional development, labour market, regional budgets.

Russian Exports Growth Points in the First Half of 2020 – Non-Commodity Exports

Nadezhda P. Volovik – Head of Foreign Trade Department of the Gaidar Institute; Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Olga I. Izryadnova – Head of Structural Policy Department of the Gaidar Institute; Leading Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Practically all countries implement stringent lockdown measures to fight the spread of Covid-19, which resulted in a plunge in trade volumes. According to WTO data released on 23 September, the volume of the global commerce in Q2 2020 decreased by 14.3% q-o-q with seasonal fluctuations.

Russian exports in H1 2020 contracted against the same period of 2019 by 23%. This was mainly due to a drop in prices and export volumes of energy resources. That said, in the wake of pandemic and decline in domestic demand, Russian companies managed to expand the geography and assortment of export sales of non-resource and non-energy products such as foodstuffs, textiles, and gold.

The article was written on the basis of the RANEPA state assignment research programme.

Key words: global trade, Russian export, non-resource based and non-energy export.

Epidemiological Crisis in the First Half of 2020: Socio-Economic Situation

Tatiana M. Maleva – Director of Institute for Social Analysis and Forecasting, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences, Doctor of Business Administration (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Elena Е. Grishina – Leading Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Aleksandra Ya. Burdyak – Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Yulia B. Chumakova – Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

In 2Q 2020 various sectors of the economy recovered differently. Retail trade volumes were close to the previous year’s level (97.4% by July 2019). Consumption of paid services was 74.5% in annual terms. The total retail trade turnover for January-July 2020 decreased by 5.8% compared to the same period of the previous year. For the seven months since the beginning of the year 20% less paid services have been provided to the population. Consumer inflation remains low.

ILO unemployment rate reached 6.3% by July. The number of unemployed increased to 4.7 million people. Persons with higher education were mostly affected by the crisis. Almost half of the new unemployed had their last job in the wholesale and retail trade, hotel and restaurant business and in construction.

In April 2020, real wages fell by 2% compared to April 2019, in May-June they began to rise by 0,6–1,0%. In 2Q 2020 real gross wages of employees decreased by 0.1% compared to the same period of 2019. As a result of negative trends in the economy real disposable money income of the population decreased by 8.0% compared to 2Q 2019. In the first half of 2020 the share of people, who consider their financial situation as «bad» or «very bad» increased to 28.3%. The level of income inequality was lower than in the first half of 2019.

The share of poor increased from 12.7% population in 2Q 2019 to 13.5% in 2Q 2020 (poor are people with per capita money income below the minimum subsistence level). Overall poverty rate for the first half of this year (13.2%) was lower than in the same period of 2019. The negative consequences of significant real incomes decline on poverty were mitigated by social support measures for families with children.

The article was written on the basis of the RANEPA state assignment research programme.

Key words: labor market, wages, population monetary income, consumption of goods and services, poverty, social support programs.

Problems of Analytical Groups Construction in Population’s Standard of Living Statistics

Alexander S. Abroskin – Leading Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Doctor of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Natalia A. Abroskina – Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

The article analyzes urgent issues related to computing analytical groups of households with the use of alternative criteria, which demonstrate real level and dynamics of the living standard. Authors analyze features of indicators of cash incomes and the value of the living standard in Russian statistics as basic criteria for estimating the living standard and computing corresponding groups. Weaknesses in the dichotomous approach used in Russia statistics are revealed that lie in the basis of differentiation of the population along the property status.

The article was prepared within the research project of the state order by RANEPA.

Key words: analytical groups, monetary income, households, final consumption, standards of living.

Corporate Lending in January-July 2020

Sergey A. Zubov – Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

On the back of the implementation of containment measures due to the spread of the coronavirus infection, the Central Bank of Russia took a host of regulatory measures aimed at reducing banks’ expenses on creation of loan loss provisions and stimulating soft lending. From the point of view of liquidity and capital provisions, the CB actions coupled with the banking system resilience allowed to avoid repetition of the credit shocks of 2008 and 2014 and ramp up volumes of corporate lending.

Key words: Russian banking sector, corporate lending, Bank of Russia, credit support of SME sector, coronavirus.

Global Value Chains in the Context of the COVID-19 Pandemic

Olga V. Ponomareva – Researcher of the Russian APEC Study Center, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration; Researcher of the Institute for International Economics and Finance, Russian Foreign Trade Academy (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Tatyana A. Flegontova – Director of the Russian APEC Study Center, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration; Deputy Director of the Institute for International Economics and Finance, Russian Foreign Trade Academy (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic was a sudden and significant negative factor. On the one hand, it created additional conditions for further growth of protectionist measures in the international trade, on the other hand, it revealed the vulnerability of existing global value chains (GVC) and formulated another justification for their restructuring in accordance with the latest trends in their development. These trends are related to the digitalization of trade, the use of new technologies in production, the corresponding shifts in the costs profiles of companies All these tendencies lead to geographical reorientation and qualitative changes in the functioning of GVCs.

The article was written on the basis of the RANEPA state assignment research programme.

Key words: Global value chains, GVC, pandemic, COVID-19, protectionism, China, trade, digitalization.

Export Oriented Agricultural Model: Pros and Cons 

Denis S. Ternovskiy – Main Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Doctor of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

The 2020 harvest will help promoting export oriented agricultural development in Russia. That said, state priorities in regulation of export crops markets are shifting from supporting producers of agricultural products towards domestic consumers and agricultural processing which in future can lead to decrease in the volume of agricultural production.

Key words: agriculture, export orientation of agricultural sector, grain, sunflower, intervention grain fund, subsidization of grain handling.

Russia’s Balance of Payments in Q3 2020

Alexandra V. Bozhechkova – Head of Monetary Policy Department of the Gaidar Institute; Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Pavel V. Trunin – Head of Center for Macroeconomics and Finance of the Gaidar Institute; Director of Center for Сentral Banks Studies of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Doctor of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

In Q3 2020, Russia’s favorable trade balance plunged compared to the same period last year due to a contraction in exports under a relatively stable volume of export deliveries. Nevertheless, despite a combination of the most adverse factors, current account balance remained favorable. Having said that, in July-September there was net outflow of capital that was due primarily by a reduction in financial liabilities before non-residents of other sectors of economy in the wake of raising geopolitical risks and decline in the interest of investors towards assets of developing countries. As a result, in Q3 2020, ruble’s exchange rate dropped by 14% and from the start of the year – by 29%.

Key words: balance of payments, export, import, current account transaction, ruble exchange rate, outflow/inflow of capital, Bank of Russia.