Demographic Situation and Socio-Economic Development of Russian Regions in the First Half of 2020

Alla O. Makarentseva – Leading Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Nikita V. Mkrtchyan – Leading Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Geographic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Natalia V. Zubarevich – Main Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Doctor of Geographic Sciences, Professor (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Russia’s natural loss of population in the first seven months of 2020 was 316.3 thousand people; it almost reached the level of all twelve months of 2019. The highest number of deaths per months was registered in July – 181.5 thousand people. In July, 130,700 births were registered. In January-July 2020 there were 48.7 thousand fewer births and 57.9 thousand more deaths than in the same period in 2019. Both of these factors have accelerated the natural decline of the population. Although the increase in deaths is temporary due to the coronavirus pandemic, the decline in births is a long-term trend.

The migration growth of the Russian population in the first half of 2020 decreased to 48.9 thousand people, compensating only 18.4% of the natural loss of the population. In the first half of the year the number of recorded in-country migrations decreased by 21%. In the second quarter it has dropped by almost a third. Population movement to the largest centres (Moscow and St. Petersburg) has temporarily stopped.

As of 1st August 2020, the number of foreigners temporarily residing in Russia was the lowest for the last eight years. The number of labour migrants declined by 11% compared to 01.08.2019. So far there has been no significant reduction in the share of legalized migrants on the labour market, but in the coming months such a possibility is not excluded.

The severe phase of the coronavirus crisis in the second quarter of 2020 hit the market services sector in all regions, especially Moscow. In January-July, industrial decline continued in more than half of the regions. Housing construction was reduced in 2/3 of the regions. Almost half of the regions reported a decline in investment. Retail trade is recovering from the crisis faster: in July one third of the regions overcame the crisis recession. Two trends emerged in the regional labour markets. Registered unemployment increased almost everywhere as a result of institutional factors. There has been an increase in underemployment, it was the most noticeable in 30% of the regions, including the problematic industrial regions of the Federation, the largest agglomerations and the Crimea.

The crisis drop in regional budget revenues in the second quarter of this year was largely offset by transfers from the federal budget. Regional expenditures in the first half of the year increased by 19% compared to January-June 2019. Health care was a top priority (85% growth), while expenditures on the national economy were the second priority (22% growth). This is largely due to the federal transfers’ structure.

The article was written on the basis of the RANEPA state assignment research programme.

Key words: birth rate, mortality, migration, regional development, labour market, regional budgets.