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Developing Moscow High-Tech Exports

Ivan L. Lyubimov – Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, PhD in Economics (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Diana G. Mirakyan – Junior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Using regional data on labor, exports and education, this paper provides a description of the current export structure of the economy of Moscow and discusses its potential prospects. The diversification of high-tech exports, which includes both, products and services, might include solutions helping to establish complex public transport systems, developing medical tourism and higher education.

Key words: economic complexity, service export, comparative advantages, product space, technological proximity.

JEL-codes: L6, L9, O4, P23, R1.

Survey of Current Business (May-August 2021)

Sergey P. Aukutsionek – Head of Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Andrey S. Yegorov – Senior Researcher of the Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Inessa A. Bachirova – Senior Researcher of the Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Stanislav V. Belyakov – Researcher of the Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

May 2021, according to some indicators, turned out to be even more optimistic than the previous rather favorable 2 months. The share of enterprises not purchasing equipment for two or more months in a row dropped to 14% – the lowest value in the entire history of observations. The diffusion index of expected changes in output increased by 17 percentage points to 70%, which appeared to be the highest value in the last 9 years. A similar employment index rose by only 4 points to 60%, but this turned out to be the best value of this indicator for all 30 years of observation.

Key words: Russia, industry, industrial enterprises, price level, wages, employment, output, investment, indebtedness to banks, order-book level, stocks of finished products, capacity utilization rate, financial situation, production restrictive factors.

JEL-codes: D22, D24, G31, L23, P23.

Distance Employment: Remote-Working Mode Becomes the Norm in a Number of Professions

Victor Yu. Lyashok – Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

An online survey conducted in June-July 2021 among Facebook users showed that significant intergenerational differences in attitudes towards remote work emerged over the past year. On average, young people have a much more positive attitude towards it compared to older respondents. Estimates also vary considerably depending on the type of activity of the companies employing the survey participants.

Key words: employment, distance employment, remote-working regime, respondents’ age, online survey.

JEL-codes: J24. 

Role of the Coronavirus Pandemic and the Collapse of the OPEC+ Deal in the Dynamics of Oil Prices in 2020

Daniil A. Lomonosov – Junior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

In 2020, world oil prices were subjected to notable shocks, which are primarily associated with two events – the failure of the OPEC+ deal and the coronavirus pandemic. Based on the BVAR model of the oil market, the article assesses the quantitative role of these events in the oil prices dynamic, and also identifies the channels of their influence through structural shocks. It is revealed that the expectations of economic agents played a dominant role in the fall in oil prices in H1 2020, while the direct contribution of the decline in business activity during this period was more modest. The main factor of price growth in H2 2020 is there has been a significant reduction in global oil output.

The article was prepared as part of the state research order of the RANEPA.

Key words: oil prices, pandemic, OPEC+, global economic activity shock, oil supply shock, specific oil demand shock.

JEL-codes: C32, E32, Q43.

Special Aspects of Motivating Young People to Learn: Redistribution of Demand from Higher to Secondary Vocational Education

Elena V. Lomteva – Leading Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Pedagogical Sciences, Associate Professor (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Larisa Yu. BedarevaSenior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

The main factor influencing the professional personal identity of young people is the financial situation of their Households. Worsening financial situation of households forces a large part of 9th and 11th class graduates to continue their studies in the system of secondary vocational education (SVE) in order to quickly enter the labor market.

Key words: youth, motivating young people to learn, professional self-determination of young people, secondary vocational education, financial situation of families.

JEL-codes: D31.

World’s Oil Market in Q2 2021

Andrey S. Kaukin – Head of Department for System Analysis of Sectoral Markets of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration; Acting Head of Center for Real Sector, Head of Department of Sectoral Markets and Infrastructure of the Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Eugenia M. Miller – Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

The revision of the oil output baseline for the UAE made it possible to reach a compromise in the negotiations to extend the OPEC+ agreement. In return, the UAE supported the proposal to extend the current deal until the end of 2022, and to increase the total oil production by OPEC+ countries by 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) during that period. This will allow Russia to return to the pre-crisis oil production level of 10.5 mn barrels per day as early as May 2022, by increasing output by 100,000 bpd from August 2021. However, the threat of negative effects on the oil market of potential worldwide infection outbreaks caused by new coronavirus strains is still there.

The work was carried out within the framework of the RANEPA state order (topic «Assessment of the impact of market and fiscal factors of price dynamics on the consumption of petroleum products»).

Key words: oil, world oil market, oil production, oil prices, OPEC+, coronavirus.

JEL-codes: L71, E3, Q3.

Dynamics of Privatization and the State of Ownership Relations: Current Trends

Georgy N. Malginov – Head of Ownership and Corporate Governance Department of the Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy; Leading Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: malginov@ieр.ru

Alexander D. Radygin – Chairman of the Scientific Council of the Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy; Director of the Institute of Economics, Mathematics and Information Technology, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Doctor of Economic Sciences, Professor (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

The article analyses the main trends of the privatization and related aspects of the state property policy in 2020 – H1 2021.

Key words: privatization, state property, Rosimushchestvo, corona crisis.

JEL-codes: G32, G35, H82, L33.

Balance of Payments in Q2 2021

Alexandra V. Bozhechkova – Head of Monetary Policy Department of the Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy; Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Alexander Yu. Knobel – Head of Foreign Trade Department of the Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy; Director of Center for Foreign Trade Department of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration; Director of the Institute for International Economics and Finance, Russian Foreign Trade Academy, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Pavel V. Trunin – Head of Center for Macroeconomics and Finance of the Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy; Director of Center for Сentral Banks Studies of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Doctor of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

In Q2 2021, the current account balance amounted to $19.9 bn, vs $1.6 bn in Q2 of last year. Russia’s trade balance demonstrated a significant increase relative to Q2 2020. Net capital outflow from the private sector declined on the same period of last year, while the global economy was recovering, and the Bank of Russia was tightening its monetary policy. The regulator continued its foreign currency purchases within the framework of the fiscal rule, which produced an increase in reserve assets by $8.3 bn in Q2 2021. International reserves increased to $591.7 bn. According to the period-end results of Q2 2021, the ruble exchange rate against the US dollar gained 4.4%, rising to Rb72.4.

Key words: balance of payments, export, import, current account transaction, ruble exchange rate, outflow/inflow of capital, Bank of Russia.

JEL-codes: E58, E44, F32, F21, F31.

Features and Risks of the Dividend Policy of Russian Joint-Stock Companies

Alexander E. Abramov – Head of Department for Analysis of Institutions and Financial Markets of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Yury A. Belyakov – Junior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Alexander D. Radygin – Chairman of the Scientific Council of the Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy; Director of the Institute of Economics, Mathematics and Information Technology, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Doctor of Economic Sciences, Professor (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Maria I. Chernova – Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Russian joint-stock companies are actively using the dividend policy to increase the attractiveness of their stocks for private investors. The adoption of new, uniform rules for the payment of dividends by state-owned enterprises can not only attract investors but also solve the fiscal problems of the budget. At the same time, the policy of increasing dividend payouts is associated with increased risks of a slowdown in the growth of market capitalization and an underperforming of their stocks in terms of total return to investors. Constant monitoring of these risks is required.

Key words: payment of dividends, dividend policy, stock returns, Russian companies, SOE, IPO.

JEL-codes: E22, G32, G35, G38.

Recovery of the Domestic Market: Production of Goods and Services in H1 2021

Olga I. Izryadnova – Head of Structural Policy Department of the Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy; Leading Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Marina A. Kovaleva – Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Alexandra A. Stavseva – Junior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

The dynamic expansion of production and investment demand were a feature of the economic recovery in the current year. The structure of goods production was formed with the outpacing growth rates of manufacturing economic activities relative to mining and the services sector-under the influence of overcoming the decline in transport, logistics and social infrastructure. Undoubtedly, the dynamics and structure of foreign trade turnover had a positive impact on the state of the economy, in the conditions of changing world market environment.

The expected economic recovery in 2021 will compensate for the negative consequences of the epidemiological crisis of the previous year in production and significantly reduce the tension in the labor market.

Key words: production sector, manufacturing, mining, social services, transport infrastructure.

JEL-codes: E23, L60, L80.