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World’s Oil Market in Q2 2021

Andrey S. Kaukin – Head of Department for System Analysis of Sectoral Markets of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration; Acting Head of Center for Real Sector, Head of Department of Sectoral Markets and Infrastructure of the Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Eugenia M. Miller – Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

The revision of the oil output baseline for the UAE made it possible to reach a compromise in the negotiations to extend the OPEC+ agreement. In return, the UAE supported the proposal to extend the current deal until the end of 2022, and to increase the total oil production by OPEC+ countries by 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) during that period. This will allow Russia to return to the pre-crisis oil production level of 10.5 mn barrels per day as early as May 2022, by increasing output by 100,000 bpd from August 2021. However, the threat of negative effects on the oil market of potential worldwide infection outbreaks caused by new coronavirus strains is still there.

The work was carried out within the framework of the RANEPA state order (topic «Assessment of the impact of market and fiscal factors of price dynamics on the consumption of petroleum products»).

Key words: oil, world oil market, oil production, oil prices, OPEC+, coronavirus.

JEL-codes: L71, E3, Q3.