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Impact of Solar and Wind Energy in the EU Countries on the Long-Term Prospects of Russian Hydrocarbon Exports

Vladimir Yu. Potashnikov – Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Alexander A. Golub – Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Doctor of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Dmitry A. Shorin – Junior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Solarand wind are forcing out coal and gas-fired power in the EU. Electric cars will edge out gasoline powered cars. Based on the highly detailed model of the representative energy system of the EU carbon-free electric power industry (365 days for 24 hours, 200 supply regions and 8 demand regions) presented in the article, it has been concluded that the share of renewable energy sources (RES) is likely to continue to grow, despite the difficulties of balancing energy sources with intermittent operation. And carbon regulation can only accelerate this process.

The article was prepared in the framework of execution of state order by RANEPA.

Key words: energy transition, representative power model, 100% electricity generation, renewable energy sources (RES).

JEL-codes: Q47, Q42, Q41.