GDP Nowcasting: Dynamic Factor Model vs. Official Forecasts

Andrey V. Zubarev – Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Konstantin S. Rybak – Junior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

We propose a dynamic factor model for nowcasting GDP, which becomes available with a significant delay in official statistics. Furthermore, we show that obtained nowcasts outperform those made by the Ministry of Economic Development.

The article was prepared in the framework of execution of state order by RANEPA.

Key words: GDP nowcasting, factor model, official forecasts.

JEL-codes: C53, C82, C38, E27.