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Birth Rate, Mortality and Situation of Regions at the Onset of the Second Wave of Pandemic

Ramilya R. Khasanova – Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Natalia V. Zubarevich – Main Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Doctor of Geographic Sciences, Professor (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Over the first ten months of 2020, the natural population decline in Russia hit 486,000 people, which is the maximum for the last 14 years. In January-October, the birth rate decreased by 57,200 persons and the number of deaths went up by 151,200 persons compared to the same period of the previous year. Both these factors led to a significant growth in natural population decline.

The onset of the pandemic second wave resulted in the deterioration of industrial dynamic and to its decline in two thirds of Russian regions. Investment decrease recorded in over half of regions was accompanied by their concentration in the federal cities and major oil and gas areas. The labor market reported a notable decline in part-time employment however the registered unemployment rate was slowly decreasing. Critical decrease in incomes of population has an unfathomable regional dynamic.

Decrease in tax and non-tax revenues of regions’ budgets has been by more than twice offset by transfers. Public health and social policy remained the focus of regions’ budgets expenditure, and in Moscow it is also national economy. Advanced growth of expenses against revenues resulted in budgets’ deficit in half of the regions.

The article was written on the basis of the RANEPA state assignment research programme.

Key words: birth rate, mortality rate, coronavirus, regional development, incomes of population, employment, regions’ budgets.