Exit of Russia’s Regions from the Crisis over January-April 2021

Natalia V. Zubarevich – Main Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Doctor of Geographic Sciences, Professor (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

The effects on the pace of economic development of the 2020 crisis caused by the pandemic significantly differed across Russia’s regions. The trajectory of exit from the crisis in January-April 2021 displayed some dramatic territorial differences, which must be taken into account when implementing regional policies and the measures of financial support for the regions.

Key words: regions, socio-economic situation of regions, regional divide.

JEL-codes: H72, P25, Q32, R11, R51.

Survey of Current Business (April-July 2021)

Sergey P. Aukutsionek – Head of Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Andrey S. Yegorov – Senior Researcher of the Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Inessa A. Bachirova – Senior Researcher of the Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Tatyana V. Serzhantova – Senior Researcher of the Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

In many respects, April 2021 was very similar to March 2021, which means that it looked quite optimistic. However, there were notable decline among the three-month expectations. Thus, the diffusion index of expected changes in the financial condition decreased by 12 percentage points and amounted to 47%, while the similar index of the order book level lost 15 p. p. at once and amounted to 44%. At the same time, the current situation with orders turned out to be so favorable that their level (relative to the normal monthly level = 100%) reached 94%, which is the highest in the entire almost 30-year history of observations.

Key words: Russia, industry, industrial enterprises, price level, wages, employment, output, investment, indebtedness to banks, order-book level, stocks of finished products, capacity utilization rate, financial situation, production restrictive factors.

JEL-codes: D22, D24, G31, L23, P23.

Unified State Exam (USE) and the Quality of Secondary School Education: Consequences of the Pandemic

Tatyana L. Klyachko – Director of Center of the Economics for Continuing Education of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Doctor of Economic Sciences, Professor (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Elena A. Semionova – Leading Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Galina S. Tokareva – Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

The surveys conducted by the RANEPA’s Center for Lifelong Learning Economics have shown that parents and secondary school teachers alike believe that the pandemic has not significantly affected the school system’s performance in preparing students for their final exams. Nevertheless, children from low-income families and those living in rural areas were found to be the most vulnerable to the effects of containment measures and the switchover to online learning. This circumstance may contribute to the increasing inequality in educational opportunities for young people, including in the field of secondary vocational education.

Key words: general education, quality of education, OGE, USE, pandemic.

JEL-codes: I21, I24, I26.

Russian Industry in June 2021

Sergey V. Tsukhlo – Head of Business Surveys Department of the Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

According to business surveys’ findings, June 2021 was marked in the Russian industry by an increase in output and demand for its products, as well as by improvement in the sales forecast. The inflationary expectations have dropped. The lack of qualified personnel topped the list of the resources’ constraints.

Key words: Russian industry, demand, inventories of finished products, inventories of inputs, output, prices, personnel.

JEL-codes: L16, L60.

Rotating Event: New View on Tourism Destination Development

Sergey A. Manenkov – Postgraduate Student of Department of Economics and Management in the Service Sector, Saint-Petersburg State University of Economics (St.-Petersburg, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Anna P. Manenkova – First Category Specialist of Educational and Methodical Work, Saint-Petersburg National Research University of Information Technologies (St.-Petersburg, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Rotating events act as powerful development driver territory potential. Review the situation of the congress-exhibition activities fundamental role not only as marketing promotion tool but also development driver. Surveyed the situation of the congress-exhibition activities fundamental role not only as marketing promotion tool but also development driver Developed a provision regarding the events methodology in the discourse of socio-economic changes, because event can be treated as subjective unit that could create a positive environment for institutional changes and diversification of regional tourism products.

Key words: tourism, congress-exhibition activity, tourism destination, rotating event.

JEL-codes: Z32, P25.

Management of the Short-Term Interest Rate of the Money Market by the Bank of Russia and Interaction of the Monetary Authorities

Vyacheslav I. Morgunov – Leading Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Doctor of Economic Sciences, Professor (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

The management of the banking sector’s liquidity and the short-term money market interest rate by the Bank of Russia is influenced by the structural liquidity surplus and the operations of the Federal Treasury of Russia to place temporarily free budget funds in credit institutions. The interaction of the two branches of the monetary authorities in Russia can be improved in order to manage the short-term interest rate of the money market more effectively.

Key words: interest rate policy of the central bank, money market, key rate, Bank of Russia, Federal Treasury.

JEL-codes: E42, E43, E52, E58, E63.

Prospects of Integration of Operational Control in the System of Fiscal Control

Elena Yu. Mitusova – Senior State Tax Inspector (Interregional Inspectorate of the Federal Tax Service of Russia No. 9) (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Today, Russia pays notable attention to the issues of improving the tax system in general and tax control in particular, applies the best practices of foreign countries, analyzes global trends in the field of taxation. Reducing the role of subsequent exit control against the background of increasing the effectiveness of current and preliminary control, as well as strengthening its analytical component with the help of the latest software solutions will lead to minimizing the costs of tax control and maximizing its effectiveness.

Key words: tax control, operational control, tax revenues, tax monitoring, interdepartmental interaction.

JEL-codes: H20, H29, H30.

Investment and Construction Complex: Trends in Q1 2021

Olga I. Izryadnova – Head of Structural Policy Department of the Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy; Leading Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

The mobilization of investment resources is a key problem of economic recovery and sustainable long-term economic growth. A restrained decline in investment activity in the acute phase of the coronavirus pandemic crisis determined the starting conditions for business activity in the construction and investment complex in early 2021. In Q1 2021, the growth of investments in fixed assets amounted to 2% compared to the same period of the previous year, with an outstripping growth of investments in manufacturing and socially oriented types of economic activities.

Key words: investment, investment in fixed assets, investment and construction complex.

JEL-codes: F21, E21, E22, E60, H54.

Assessments of the Impact of the Crisis on the Development of Small and Medium-Sized Businesses by the End of 2020: Have the Forecasts of the Beginning of the Year Come True?

Vera A. Barinova – Head of International Laboratory for Research on Sustainable Development Problems Regionalism of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration; Head of Laboratory of Innovative Economics of the Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Xeniya V. Demidova – Junior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Stepan P. Zemtsov – Director of Centre for Economic Geography and Regionalism of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration; Senior Researcher of the Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, Candidate of Geographic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Yulia V. Tsareva – Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

The current crisis, according to early estimates, affected about 75% of SMEs, however, according to the Unified Register of SMEs, in 2020 the number of SMEs decreased by less than 4%, and the number of employees generally increased slightly. However, the turnover of small companies decreased by 3 billion rubles, or 11% at current prices, and the turnover of medium-sized companies increased by 1.4 billion rubles, or 23%, including due to an increase in the number of medium-sized companies. This can be explained both by statistical features and the impact of anti-crisis measures.

The real consequences of the crisis will be known only by the end of 2021. Due to the features of the selection criteria (OKVED codes, the register of SMEs), support measures did not always reach the target audience; individual companies adjusted their OKVED code to receive support. The measures in demand were not large enough in comparison with more developed countries. In the future, it will be necessary to introduce a more differentiated approach when applying restrictive measures. It is necessary to extend and expand the ways of supporting SMEs amidst maintaining anti-epidemic restrictions.

The article was written on the basis of the RANEPA state assignment research programme.

Key words: small and medium-sized business, support, business environment, corona crisis.

JEL-codes: L26, L53.

Structure of Economic Growth: External Demand in Q1 2021

Nadezhda P. Volovik – Head of Foreign Trade Department of the Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy; Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Olga I. Izryadnova – Head of Structural Policy Department of the Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy; Leading Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

A feature of the recovery of the Russian economy in Q1 2021 was the outstripping dynamic of the growth of foreign trade turnover and investment in fixed assets relative to the dynamic of GDP. Against the background of high turbulence of the commodity market, the outpacing growth of non-primary non-energy exports and high-tech products reflects the adaptation of the Russian economy to the changing situation on the world market when implementing systemic measures of state support.

Key words: GDP, economy, economic growth, foreign trade turnover, investment in fixed assets, coronavirus infection.

JEL-codes: D51, E20, F10, F40.

Mortgage Lending in January-May 2021: Upside Risk of the Real Estate Market

Sergey A. Zubov – Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

At the beginning of this year, the growth rate of residential mortgage lending (RML) corresponded to the average level of 2020. The market situation is largely influenced by the reduction in interest rates caused by the implementation of state preferential mortgage programs. The rise in prices in the primary and secondary housing markets amid more expensive bank funding and an increase in construction costs create potential upside risks in the real estate market and results in a mortgage bubble, which forces the government and the Central Bank of the Russian Federation to take measures to cool the market.

Key words: mortgage lending, subsidized mortgage programs, mortgage lending market overheating.

JEL-codes: E58, G21, G28.