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Mortgage Lending in January-May 2021: Upside Risk of the Real Estate Market

Sergey A. Zubov – Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

At the beginning of this year, the growth rate of residential mortgage lending (RML) corresponded to the average level of 2020. The market situation is largely influenced by the reduction in interest rates caused by the implementation of state preferential mortgage programs. The rise in prices in the primary and secondary housing markets amid more expensive bank funding and an increase in construction costs create potential upside risks in the real estate market and results in a mortgage bubble, which forces the government and the Central Bank of the Russian Federation to take measures to cool the market.

Key words: mortgage lending, subsidized mortgage programs, mortgage lending market overheating.

JEL-codes: E58, G21, G28.