World’s Oil Market in Q1 2021

Andrey S. Kaukin – Head of Department for System Analysis of Sectoral Markets of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration; Acting Head of Center for Real Sector, Head of Department of Sectoral Markets and Infrastructure of the Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Eugenia M. Miller – Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

One of the main factors behind the reduction in oil supply and, consequently, the increase in oil prices in Q1 2021 was the voluntary decision of Saudi Arabia under the OPEC+ agreement to further reduce its production by 1 mbpd. This fact resulted in a record overall conformity with the original decision, which came to 115% in February 2021. A potential risk factor for the oil prices dynamic is the decision taken at the 15th OPEC+ meeting to raise production targets in Q2 2021, coupled with a rapid increase in the number of coronavirus cases reported in Asian countries.

Key words: oil, world oil market, oil production, oil prices, OPEC+, coronavirus, vaccination.

JEL-codes: L71, E3, Q3.