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Labor Market and Mandatory Pension Insurance System: Current Trends and Long-term Risks

Yury M. Gorlin – Deputy Director of Institute for Social Analysis and Forecasting, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Victor Yu. Lyashok – Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

The problem of long-term sustainability of the mandatory pension insurance system (MPS) of the Russian Federation is highly dependent on trends in the labor market. Their analysis, as well as scenario forecasts based on it, indicate the presence of risks that could lead to a decrease in the volume of insurance contributions relative to GDP in the future.

Key words: labor market, pension system, mandatory pension insurance, insurance contributions.

JEL-codes: E25, H55, J26.

Industrial Production Dynamics in Q3 2021

Andrey S. Kaukin – Head of Department for System Analysis of Sectorial Markets of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration; Head of Department of Sectorial Markets and Infrastructure of the Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Eugenia M. Miller – Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

In Q3 2021, industrial output growth was mainly driven by extractive industries owing to a pickup in demand for power-generating coal and natural gas and ebbing restrictions related to the OPEC+ agreement. The following factors kept affecting dynamics of different sectors of the Russian industry: further anti-COVID restrictive measures introduced both in Russia and its main trade partner countries (particularly, China); soaring prices for primary commodities (for the chemical industry and metallurgy) on the world’s commodity exchanges; termination of government support programs and consumer demand stimulating measures (for the light industry and the engineering industry).

The article was prepared in the framework of execution of state order by RANEPA («Approaches to studying the impact of consumer demand on the formation of incentives for technological development of firms»).

Key words: industrial sector, sectors of economy, mining industry, manufacturing, Rosstat, OPEC+ deal.

JEL-codes: L16, L6, L7, L8, L9.

Profitability and Efficiency of Russian Banks after Global Crisis

Kirill D. Shilov – Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Andrey V. Zubarev – Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly affected the performance of the Russian banking sector. Large banks have not only avoided serious financial losses in 2020, but also reached pre-crisis levels of return on equity by the end of 1st half of 2021. This was mainly due to operational efficiency increase and active retail lending. Smaller banks (outside the top twenty in terms of assets size) have been recovering relatively more slowly, and the revenue and profit of such banks shows a tendency of stagnation or even decline. All this speaks in favour of the worsening of the Russian banking sector concentration problem.

The article was written on the basis of the RANEPA state assignment research programme.

Key words: Russian banking system, profitability, efficiency, performance.

JEL-codes: G21, G28, E58, M41.

Revision of Developing Country Status Determination Criterias

Kniaz M. Bagdasaryan – Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

The article examines the recent practice of revision by leading developed countries, primarily the United States, of criteria for determining the status of developing countries. The possibility of such a practice is explained by the lack of generally recognized criteria on this issue at the level of international organizations, including the WTO. In the logic of modern trade wars, the United States uses this gap as a tool of trade policy, while creating a new form of struggle for international competitiveness.

The article was written based on the RANEPA state assignment research programme.

Key words: economic status, developing countries, tariff preferences, WTO, revision of usual criterias, new trade rules.

JEL-codes: F10, F13, F19.

Retail Deposits in January-August 2021

Sergey A. Zubov – Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

The slowdown in the growth rate of retail deposits is due to the policy of low rates of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation in 2020 and the introduction of a tax on interest on retail deposits, which came into force in 2021. The increase in the key rate of the Bank of Russia contributed to an increase in bank deposit rates and allowed to reduce the rate of outflow of funds from fixed deposit accounts. The low level of interest rates on deposits will contribute to the gradual redistribution of retail resources, which will result in an increase in popularity of savings accounts and further promotion of banking products related to investments in the stock market.

Key words: Russian banking sector, retail deposits, retail escrow accounts, Deposits Insurance Agency, Bank of Russia.

JEL-codes: D81, E58, G21.

New Restrictions on the Access of Russian Exporters to the US Market: Causes and Possible Consequences

Alexander A. Pakhomov – Leading Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Doctor of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: р This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

In 2021, the US authorities increased restrictions on Russian exporters both in terms of the number of barriers and the use of new tools, in particular, based on the criteria of distortion of «market practices» and «export subsidies» in Russia. These measures may not only seriously complicate the access of domestic companies to the US market, but also increase their financial losses.

The article was written based on the RANEPA state assignment research programme.

Key words: countervailing and anti-dumping duties, market status of the Russian economy, WTO, USA, subsidies, market access.

JEL-codes: E65, F13, F53.

Potato Price: Growth Factors and Ways to Reduce

Denis S. Ternovskiy – Leading Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Doctor of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Natalia I. Shagaida – Director of Center for Agro-Food Policy of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration; Head of Agricultural Policy Department of the Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, Doctor of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Since the end of 2020, the price of potatoes has sharply increased in Russia. The growth is associated with structural changes in production and a high level of world prices for crop products competing with potatoes for acreage. The increase in the cost in late winter and early summer is associated with the import of new potatoes, the price of which always differs from the prices of the last harvest and depends, among other things, on the ruble exchange rate.

Key words: potatoes, price for potatoes, potatoes output, potato acreage, profitability of potato production.

JEL-сodes: Q18, Q11, D12, D13.

International Cooperation: Eastern Partnership Countries

Nadezhda P. Volovik – Head of Foreign Trade Department of the Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy; Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Olga I. Izryadnova – Head of Structural Policy Department of the Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy; Leading Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

In recent years, there has been a decline in the share of CIS countries in the total volume of Russian foreign trade. The European Union, China, Turkey and other countries are seeking to expand their influence on their markets. It is extremely important for Russia to maintain good-neighborly and strategic mutually beneficial relations with post-Soviet states. The article examines the economic development of the Eastern Partnership countries that have concluded an agreement with the European Union.

The article was prepared as part of the research work of the RANEPA’s state task.

Key words: European Union, CIS countries, Eastern Partnership.

JEL-codes: D51, E20, F10, F40.

Survey of Current Business (August-November 2021)

Sergey P. Aukutsionek – Head of Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Andrey S. Yegorov – Senior Researcher of the Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Inessa A. Bachirova – Senior Researcher of the Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Stanislav V. Belyakov – Researcher of the Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

In August 2021, the share of enterprises that reported that prices for purchased products rose again became very large (81%). This provoked an increase in the corresponding diffusion index, which for the fourth time per year reached 90% – the maximum value for the past 6 years. For the rest of the indicators we observe relative stability, since it was not possible to identify any serious deviations from the values of the previous month or even last few months.

Key words: Russia, industry, industrial enterprises, price level, wages, employment, output, investment, indebtedness to banks, order-book level, stocks of finished products, capacity utilization rate, financial situation, production restrictive factors.

JEL-codes: D22, D24, G31, L23, P23.

Long-term Challenges for the Monetary Policy in Russia: Climate Change, Demographics and Digital Rouble Adoption

Eugeny L. Goryunov – Senior Researcher of the Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy; Senior Tutor at the Department of Finance and Foreign Exchange and Credit Relations of the Russian Foreign Trade Academy; Tutor at the Department of Macroeconomics of the Institute of Economics, Mathematics and Information Technology, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

According to the project of the “General lines of unitary governmental monetary policy on the 2022 and the period of 2023–2024”, published by the Bank of Russia, global climate change and demographics should prospectively be considered as a factors of macroeconomics dynamics and therefore taken into account when monetary policy decisions are made. Also Russian monetary authority confirms that it is going to adopt digital currency. These innovations are discussed in the paper.

I support the idea that transition to inflation targeting in 2014 was a key factor ensuring that inflationary expectations were anchored, which created the conditions for a countercyclical stimulating monetary policy during the recent economic downturn.

Key words: monetary policy, global climate change, demographics, inflation targeting.

JEL-codes: E31, E52, E58, J11, Q54.

Adaptability of Various Groups of Enterprises to the 2020 Crisis

Sergey V. Tsukhlo – Head of Business Surveys Department of the Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Depending on their size, Russian industrial enterprises adapted in different ways to the pandemic. The highest adaptability was typical of very large enterprises, while the lowest one, of small and mid-sized companies. As the crisis was subsiding, enterprises’ estimates of their performance indicators returned to the pre-pandemic level.

Key words: Russian industry, Russian Industry Adaptability Index regarding enterprises’ size, demand, stock of finished products, stock of materials, output, stuffing, financial and economic situation.

JEL-codes: L16, L53, L60.

Draft Federal Budget for 2022–2024: Ensuring Public Finance Sustainability

Ilya A. Sokolov – Head of Budget Policy Department of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration; Director of the Institute of Macroeconomic Research, Russian Foreign Trade Academy, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

The distinctive features of the draft federal budget for 2022-2024 are an uptick in the revenue side of the budget, a noticeable reduction in the share of GDP of budget expenditures and their redistribution compared to the pandemic structure of public spending, maintaining a surplus balance. The main objective of fiscal policy within the three-year horizon will remain to ensure the sustainability of public finances. Among the instruments of such provision are the budget rule and the accumulation of reserve funds in the National Welfare Fund (NWF) in case of a negative scenario of the development of the situation in the world economy.

Key words: federal budget for 2022–2024, public finances, fiscal rule, National Wealth Fund.

JEL-codes: E62, H12, H61.