Regional Budgets in H1 2021: Income Growth
Alexander N. Deryugin – Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration; Senior Researcher of the Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
According to data for H1 2021, own tax and non-tax revenues of the consolidated budgets of RF subjects recovered after their fall in 2020 and showed an increase, compared to the same period in 2019.The structure of expenditures of regional consolidated budgets changed in 2021 compared with their pre-pandemic structure, indicating changing priorities of territorial budget policy. The rapid growth of own tax and non-tax revenues in H1 2021 reduced the territorial debt burden to the lowest level for this period since 2009.
Key words: regions’ budgets, revenues of regional budgets, expenditures of regional budgets, intergovernmental fiscal transfers, regional debt.
JEL-codes: H61, H62, H63, H71, H72, H74, H77.
Russian Industrial in August 2021: Shortage of Workers
Sergey V. Tsukhlo – Head of Business Surveys Department of the Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
The recommencing growth in demand increased the level of satisfaction with its volumes to 78% of the surveyed industrial enterprises. The dynamics of output lagging behind the growing demand and the logical caution in the context of the ongoing fight against coronavirus, keep manufacturers from filling warehouses of finished products.
In the context of the pandemic crisis, the industry is experiencing challenges in replenishing stocks of raw materials. The shortage of personnel emerged early in Q 3, forced enterprises to take measures in July-August to restore the recruitment of workers. The increase in the key rate by the RF Central Bank in July did not affect the rate on loans offered to the industry.
Key words: Russian industry, demand, inventories of finished products, inventories of inputs, output, prices, personnel.
JEL-codes: L16, L60.
Russian Regions Rating According to the Educational Technology Conformity Index in VET-system to the Requirements of Programs Flexibility and Mobility
Sergey Yu. Alasheev – Senior Researcher of the Samara Branch of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Samara, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Natalia Yu. Postalyuk – Main Researcher of the Samara Branch of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Doctor of Pedagogical Sciences, Professor (Samara, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Elena G. Reprintseva – Senior Researcher of the Samara Branch of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration. E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
The article presents the rating of the subjects of the Russian Federation by the nature of the use of modern educational technologies in the context of four groups of regions differentiated by the level of economic development. The uneven development and significant polarization of Russia’s regional STR systems are recorded. The study showed that the rating values achieved in the regions are formed by different sets of indicators that make up the Index of Educational Technologies. Their analysis allows us to determine the reserves and current directions of synchronization of the activity of the SPO systems of the subjects of the Russian Federation with the needs of the region’s economy by increasing the flexibility and mobility of educational and technological equipment of programs.
The article is prepared based on the results of the research work of the RANEPA state order for 2021 «Comparative analysis of the subjects of the Russian Federation by the level of orientation of their secondary vocational education systems to the needs of the socio-economic development of the region».
Key words: distance learning, educational technologies, needs of economic development, COVID-19 pandemic, rating of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation, VET-system, network educational programs, e-learning.
JEL-codes: C43, I21, R58.
Industrial Production Dynamics in May-July 2021: Growth Factors
Andrey S. Kaukin – Head of Department for System Analysis of Sectoral Markets of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration; Acting Head of Center for Real Sector, Head of Department of Sectoral Markets and Infrastructure of the Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Eugenia M. Miller – Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Analysis of trend components of production indices for May through July 2021 suggests that growth factors in trends for the extractive industries since the beginning of 2021 continue to have effect for two reasons: a pickup in demand for power-generating coal on the part of European and Asian countries and an ebbing restrictions related to the OPEC+ agreement, owing to increased quotas on daily oil production volumes in member countries. The manufacturing sector’s trend component keeps growing, too, on the back of high prices and active external demand for industry products, which account for a substantial share of production (metallurgy, oil refining and the chemical industry).
The article is prepared based on the results of the research work of the RANEPA state order for 2021 «Modeling and forecasting of indices of the Russian wholesale energy market using methods of combining data of different frequencies»).
Key words: industrial sector, sectors of economy, mining industry, manufacturing, Rosstat, OPEC+ deal.
JEL-codes: L16, L6, L7, L8, L9.
Creation of a Common Market of Transportation Services with the EAEU Countries: Analysis of the Effects for the Economies of Uzbekistan and Azerbaijan
Kirill V. Rostislav – Junior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Yury Yu. Ponomarev – Head of Center for Spatial Economics of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration; Senior Researcher of the Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Meri B. Alimbaeva – Junior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
The Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) development has many objectives, including the creation of a common market of transportation services. This article is devoted to the assessment and analysis of the potential socio-economic effects of the possible integration of the markets of transport services of Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan and the countries of the Union. It shows that the potential positive effects of the integration of these two countries with the common market of transportation services of the EAEU (road, rail, air, water, all modes of transport) can be noticeable.
The article was written on the basis of the RANEPA state assignment research programme.
Key words: Eurasian Economic Union, EAEU, Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan, transportation services.
JEL-codes: B22, B27, E00, F02, F10, F17.
Foreign Trade in January-July 2021: Growth of Non-Energy Exports
Alexander Yu. Knobel – Head of Foreign Trade Department of the Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy; Director of Center for Foreign Trade Department of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration; Director of the Institute for International Economics and Finance, Russian Foreign Trade Academy, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Alexander S. Firanchuk – Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
In the first seven months of 2021, the Russian foreign trade turnover significantly exceeded the pre-covid level, increasing by 12.2% compared to January-July 2019. Exports of energy and raw materials in value terms did not return to the pre-crisis level (a decrease of 9.8% compared to January-July 2019), while non-primary non-energy exports (NEE) in January-July 2021 increased significantly relative to the pre-crisis level (by 40.8%). In July, the NEE hit a record monthly figure of $26.2 billion due to an increase in the export of metals in the last month before the introduction of export duties. Imports of goods also overcame the downward trend caused by the pandemic and demonstrated a significant increase (by 20.6%) relative to the 2019 level.
The article was written on the basis of the RANEPA state assignment research programme.
Key words: foreign trade, export, import, non-primary non-fuel exports, pandemic.
JEL-codes: F10, F14.
Banking Sector’s Financial Performance in January-July 2021: Profit Growth
Sergey A. Zubov – Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
In January-July 2021, the banking sector’s profit hit the record-high of Rb1.4 trillion on the back of a pickup in lending volumes and simultaneous reduction in loan-loss provisions. Growth in revenues from commission operations owing to increased income from settlement and cash services and intermediary services on the financial market had a positive impact on the consolidated financial result.
Key words: Russian banking sector, banks’ financial results, banks’ profit, banks’ profitability.
JEL-codes: D81, E58, G21.
Recovery of Economic Dynamics in H1 2021: Production, Investment in Fixed Assets, Housing Construction
Olga I. Izryadnova – Head of Structural Policy Department of the Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy; Leading Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Marina A. Kovaleva – Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
The recovery of growth of GDP in H1 2021 was supported by the outpacing growth of investments in fixed assets, the dynamics of the construction complex and manufacturing industries with an increase in the contribution of net exports. The growth of income and savings has determined the possibility of expanding the resource base of investment and construction activities amidst adaptation of spatial-territorial, sectoral and specific dynamics to the growing domestic and external demand.
The acceleration of the housing construction increase was supported by an increased demand for housing under the effect of preferential mortgage programs and the motivation of the population to practical solutions to problems of improving the quality of life.
Key words: GDP, economic income, manufacturing industries, investment-construction complex, housing construction.
JEL-codes: F21, E21, E22, E60, H54.
Economic Situation in the Industry in H1 2021
Sergey P. Aukutsionek – Head of Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Alexandra Ye. Batyaeva – Senior Researcher of the Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
The article presents a set of different non-traditional economic indicators obtained in the surveys, which were conducted by the «Russian Economic Barometer» among Russian industrial enterprises in the first half of 2021. A wide range of considered indicators provides a great possibility to make a more comprehensive assessment of the state of affairs in Russian industry.
Key words: Russia, industry, industrial enterprises, production and investments restrictive factors, suppliers, wholesale buyers, recruitments and redundancies, risk of bankruptcy, competitiveness, sources of investments, relations with banks, production and inflation, demand prognoses.
JEL-codes: D22, D24, G31, G38, J23, P23.
Bank of Russia Keeps Tightening the Monetary Policy
Alexandra V. Bozhechkova – Head of Monetary Policy Department of the Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy; Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Pavel V. Trunin – Head of Center for Macroeconomics and Finance of the Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy; Director of Center for Central Banks Studies of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Doctor of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
In September, the Central Bank of Russia’s Board of Directors took a decision to tighten the monetary policy. The key interest rate was raised by 0.25 p.p. to 6.75% per annum, the maximum value since December 2019. Such an increase was substantiated by intensified inflationary pressures on the back of expansion of demand amid existing problems related to supply of goods and services, as well appreciation of global prices. From results for August 2021, year-on-year inflation amounted to 6.7%, close to the 5-year heights. In our opinion, in 2021 the inflation rate is going to be equal to over 6% and this suggests further tightening of the monetary policy.
Key words: inflation, monetary policy, key rate, capital outflow, Bank of Russia.
JEL-codes: E31, E52, F31.
Survey of Current Business (June-September 2021)
Sergey P. Aukutsionek – Head of Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Andrey S. Yegorov – Senior Researcher of the Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Inessa A. Bachirova – Senior Researcher of the Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Stanislav V. Belyakov – Researcher of the Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
In June 2021, the diffusion index of expected changes in incoming prices reached 97% – the highest value since 2003 and a typical level for 1993–1995. Apart from that, June can be called a very favorable month, taking into account high values of the level of capacities and labor utilization rates, large share of financially sound enterprises, "good" indicators for orders, stocks, output, etc. As for the diffusion index of equipment purchases, it reached the maximum value for all 30 years of observations (47%).
Key words: Russia, industry, industrial enterprises, price level, wages, employment, output, investment, indebtedness to banks, order-book level, stocks of finished products, capacity utilization rate, financial situation, production restrictive factors.
JEL-codes: D22, D24, G31, L23, P23.
Federal Budget Execution in H1 2021: Revenues Exceeded Pre-Pandemic Level
Sergey G. Belev – Head of Budget Policy Department of the Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy; Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Tatyana V. Tischenko – Senior Researcher of the Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy; Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
According to the results of H1 2021, the federal budget revenues exceeded the level of 2019, hitting 20.9% of GDP. The main contribution to this outcome was made by an increase in VAT receipts, primarily due to an increase in the consumption of non-food products with a slight increase in the consumption of food products (measured in terms of physical volumes of retail turnover).
Key words: federal budget, revenue, oil and gas revenues, non-oil and gas revenues, expenditure, taxes.
JEL-codes: H11, H50, H62, H63.
