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Industrial Production Dynamics in May-July 2021: Growth Factors

Andrey S. Kaukin – Head of Department for System Analysis of Sectoral Markets of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration; Acting Head of Center for Real Sector, Head of Department of Sectoral Markets and Infrastructure of the Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Eugenia M. Miller – Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Analysis of trend components of production indices for May through July 2021 suggests that growth factors in trends for the extractive industries since the beginning of 2021 continue to have effect for two reasons: a pickup in demand for power-generating coal on the part of European and Asian countries and an ebbing restrictions related to the OPEC+ agreement, owing to increased quotas on daily oil production volumes in member countries. The manufacturing sector’s trend component keeps growing, too, on the back of high prices and active external demand for industry products, which account for a substantial share of production (metallurgy, oil refining and the chemical industry).

The article is prepared based on the results of the research work of the RANEPA state order for 2021 «Modeling and forecasting of indices of the Russian wholesale energy market using methods of combining data of different frequencies»).

Key words: industrial sector, sectors of economy, mining industry, manufacturing, Rosstat, OPEC+ deal.

JEL-codes: L16, L6, L7, L8, L9.