Consensus Forecast of the Consolidated Budgets of Russian Regions for 2022

Dmitrii Yu. Zemlianskii – Director of Centre of Spatial Analysis and Regional Diagnostics of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration; Researcher of the Faculty of Geography of Lomonosov Moscow State University, Ph.D. of Geographic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Vladimir V. Klimanov – Director of Centre for Regional Policy of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Doctor of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

The budgets of Russian regions have experienced many important changes in recent years. The results of 2021 were positive in general. But in 2022, the situation has changed radically. Nowadays, the situation with regional budgets is becoming uncertain due to the lack of understanding of the duration and extent of the final sanctions pressure on the Russian economy. To diagnose changes and form a vision of possible changes in the budget situation, a consensus forecast was formed based on a survey of specialized experts. The forecast showed an expected large decrease in revenues with a slow growth of expenditures of regional budgets. The real changes will mostly depend on the level of inflation by the end of the year.

The article was prepared as part of the research work of the state task of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.

Key words: regional budgets, forecast, budget deficit, expert survey.

JEL-codes: H68, H77, R58.