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Estimating the Decline in Russia's GDP Due to the Trade Restrictions with the EU, the US, Great Britain and Japan

Andrey V. Zubarev – Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Mariya A. Kirillova – Junior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

The introduction of international economic sanctions against Russia in February-March 2022 will have a strong negative impact on Russian output – both in the short and long term. The disruption of logistics chains, the ban on attracting external financing, statements by major Western companies about the cessation of investment in Russia and the closure of international projects involving Russia are expected to lead to a reduction in domestic output. The prolonged ban on imports of high technology and equipment to the country will also have a negative impact on output. In addition, the plans of some states to gradually refuse to buy Russian crude oil, gas and coal may severely reduce export revenues.

This article presents scenario projections of output losses in the Russian economy as a result of varying levels of reduction in external demand and supply from Russia’s key trading partners within the framework of the global vector autoregression model.

Key words: international economic sanctions, Russian GDP, scenario projections.

JEL-codes: C32, C53, E17, F17, F51.