Efficiency of Accounting of Precious Metals and Stones in the System of State Regulation of Resources

Ludmila N. Ivanova – Head of the Center for Research in the Field of state Regulation of the Precious Metals and Precious Stones industry NIFI, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Olga V. Umgaeva – Leading Researcher at the Center for Research in the Field of State Regulation of the Precious Metals and Precious Stones Industry of NIFI, Candidate of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Based on the provisions of economic theory and management, the necessity of state regulation of the turnover of precious stones and metals is substantiated, the existing problems of the accounting system of the unified information platform are analyzed. It is concluded that it is necessary to develop logical measures when constructing tasks for the system aimed at the effectiveness of accounting for a strategically important resource.

The article was prepared as part of the research work of the state task of the NIFI of the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation.

Key words: precious stones, precious metals, jewelry, accounting efficiency, state system, digital technologies, income legalization, scientific forecasting.

JEL-codes: G18, O29.

Restrictions on Investment Activity of Industrial Enterprises at the Beginning of 2022

Sergey V. Tsukhlo – Head of Business Surveys Department of the Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

The monitoring of investment activity conducted by the Gaidar Institute makes it possible to build a hierarchy of factors constraining the industrial investment optimism in the beginning of 2022. First of all, it signifies that enterprises lack their own funds, then high prices for machinery and equipment followed by high cost of loans and difficulties to get them for long-term purposes, as well as low return on investment.

Key words: Russian industry, investments, financial means, prices for machines and equipment, credits.

JEL-codes: L16, L53, L60.

Factor Investing amid Increased Volatility of Financial Markets

Alexander E. Abramov – Head of Department for Analysis of Institutions and Financial Markets of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Alexander D. Radygin – Chairman of the Scientific Council of the Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy; Director of the Institute of Mathematics and Information Technology Economics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Doctor of Economic Sciences, Professor (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Maria I. Chernova – Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Andrey G. Kosyrev – Junior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Factor investing strategies make it possible to manage investment portfolios more effectively amid growing volatility of financial markets under the influence of significant changes in the central banks’ monetary policy and uneven recovery of different sectors of the economies with different levels of development. The development of exchange traded investment funds (ETFs) simplifies the application of factor strategies for investors. However, these strategies have not yet found sufficient application in the Russian market due to technical problems of processing initial data and inertia of financial intermediaries.

Key words: financial markets, financial markets’ volatility, factor investing, exchange traded funds, mutual investment funds.

JEL-codes: E44, G11, G41.

Industrial Production Dynamics in Q4 2021

Andrey S. Kaukin – Head of Department for System Analysis of Sectorial Markets of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration; Head of Department of Sectorial Markets and Infrastructure of the Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Eugenia M. Miller – Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Year 2021 saw extractive industries’ growth on the back of a pickup in demand for power-generating coal and natural gas on the part of European and Asian countries, as well as ebbing restrictions related to the OPRC+ agreement (owing to higher quotas on daily oil production volumes in member countries). In 2021, the manufacturing sector saw growth, too. It was achieved as a result of higher prices and active external demand for industry products, which account for a substantial share of production (metallurgy, oil refining and the chemical industry).

Key words: industrial sector, sectors of economy, mining industry, manufacturing, Rosstat.

JEL-codes: L16, L6, L7, L8, L9.

Banking Sector’s Financial Performance in 2021

Sergey A. Zubov – Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

In 2021, the profit of the banking sector hit a record Rb2.4 trillion. The achievement of this high indicator was influenced by several factors: the aggressive banks’ policy in the credit market; reduction of provisioning costs due to a low share of overdue loans; growth of commission income on intermediary operations. An increase in the Central Bank key rate led to higher funding costs and a negative revaluation of part of investments in the securities market, which slowed down profit growth in Q4.

Key words: Russian banking sector, banks’ financial results, banks’ profit, banks’ profitability, Bank of Russia.

JEL-codes: D81, E58, G21.

Forecasting Output Growth of Russian Manufacturing Industries Using Panel Data Models

Andrey V. Polbin – Head of Department of Mathematical Modeling of Economic Processes, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration; Deputy Head of International Department of Mathematical Modeling of Economic Processes, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Andrey V. Shumilov – Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Physical and Mathematical Sciences, Associate Professor (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

In this paper, we utilize panel data models for forecasting output growth rates of Russian manufacturing industries. Using monthly data for 2015–2021, we find that one-month-ahead forecasts of panel models are superior to corresponding naive forecasts based on averaging past growth rates. Compared to individual industry models, panel data models yield better forecasts at 1–6 months horizons for a number of industries, but the overall forecasting accuracy improves only slightly.

The article was written on the basis of the RANEPA state assignment research programme.

Key words: forecasting, dynamic panel data model, output growth, Russian manufacturing industries.

JEL-codes: C22, C23, C53.

Agriculture: The Results of the Second Year of the Pandemic

Natalia I. Shagaida – Director of Center for Agro-Food Policy of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration; Head of Agricultural Policy Department of the Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, Doctor of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Denis S. Ternovskiy – Leading Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Doctor of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Despite the fall in the physical volume of agricultural production and exports in 2021, the excess of 2020 figures in value terms stood at 17.1% and 21.3%, respectively. The main contribution to the change in production indicators was made by a 9% decrease in the grain harvest. Losses in the production of vegetables and potatoes were fully offset by the growth of the production of oilseeds and sugar beets. The growth of livestock production was insignificant. The structure of the cost of agricultural production in comparison with the sources of resources allows us to conclude about the risk of its growth in the event of rising prices on the foreign market and the ruble depreciation in 2022.

Key words: agriculture, agricultural production, agricultural products, production cost of agricultural products, prices on agricultural products, sources of inputs.

JEL-codes: Q11, Q17, Q18.

Foreign Trade in 2021: Export Growth Driven by a Leap in Prices

Alexander Yu. Knobel – Head of Foreign Trade Department of the Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy; Director of Center for Foreign Trade Department of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration; Director of the Institute for International Economics and Finance, Russian Foreign Trade Academy, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Alexander S. Firanchuk – Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, PhD in Economics (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

In 2021, Russia’s trade turnover increased by 38% to $785 bn, the maximum level since 2014. Appreciation of prices for fuel and energy commodities (+61%) amid stable volumes of exports (-1,7%) made it feasible to increase the value of exports to $267 bn (+59%). The record-high value of $197,8 bn worth of non-primary non-energy exports (+31.0%) was entirely driven by the price momentum (+31,2%) with export volumes of these commodities remaining unchanged (-0,2%). It is noteworthy that exports of machinery and equipment increased the most. No pickup in export volumes of food, metals and timber despite a leap in prices can be probably substantiated by the introduction of export duties and quotas. Unlike exports, an increase in the value of imports to $293,4 bn (+26,7%) was driven both by a rise in prices (+10,4%) and substantial growth in the volume of imports (+15,0%).

In contrast to exports, the increase in the value of imports to $293.4 bn (+26,7%) was due not only to rising prices (+10,4%), but also to a significant increase in physical volumes of imports of these goods (+15,0%).

Key words: foreign trade, export, import, non-primary non-energy exports.

JEL-codes: F10, F14.

Survey of Current Business (November 2021 – February 2022)

Sergey P. Aukutsionek – Head of the Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Andrey S. Yegorov – Senior Researcher of the Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Inessa A. Bachirova – Senior Researcher of the Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Tatyana V. Serzhantova – Senior Researcher of the Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

November 2021 turned out to be very similar to the previous month in the majority of indicators. Although the current index of prices for purchased products and the similar index of expected in three months changes have slightly decreased, they are still in the zone of maximum values in the entire history of observations. The diffusion index of the expected in three months changes in the order-book level, which added 14 points in a month, looked more optimistic than others. The «investment boom» recorded among the REB’s respondents, which occurred in the middle of 2021, seems to be coming to an end: the share of enterprises that do not purchase equipment for two or more months in a row has reached 30% – the maximum value for the last 10 months.

Key words: Russia, industry, industrial enterprises, price level, wages, employment, output, investment, indebtedness to banks, order-book level, stocks of finished products, capacity utilization rate, financial situation, production restrictive factors.

JEL-codes: D22, D24, G31, L23, P23.

Bank of Russia’s Key Rate Hits its Record High since May 2017

Yury N. Perevyshin – Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Pavel V. Trunin – Head of Center for Macroeconomics and Finance of the Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy; Director of Center for Сentral Banks Studies of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Doctor of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

On February 11, the Bank of Russia’s key rate was increased by 1 p.p. to 9.5% per annum. This is its highest value since May 2017. The decision was adopted in response to the ongoing inflation acceleration that resulted from an actively expanding aggregate demand, shortage of labor resources, the proinflationary situation on world markets, and high inflationary expectations. The Bank of Russia did not play down the severity of its signal compared to its previous press release, which points to the high probability of a continuing monetary tightening cycle. Annual inflation in January skyrocketed to 8.7%, which is its record high since February 2016. Given the inertia in the movement of annual inflation, it will remain above its target of 4% throughout 2022, to return to the target no earlier than mid-2023.

Key words: inflation, monetary policy, key rate, capital outflow, Bank of Russia.

JEL-codes: E31, E52, F31.