Regional Budgets in January-September 2021: Public Budget Loans Replace Commercial Loans
Alexander N. Deryugin – Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration; Senior Researcher of the Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Based on results for Q3 2021, tax and non-tax revenues of consolidated budgets of RF constituent entities increased markedly as compared with the same period of 2019. In 2021, the pattern of regional consolidated budgets’ expenditures does not differ very much from the pre-pandemic one, which is evidence of long-term changes in RF regions’ budget policy. Fast growth in regions’ own tax and non-tax revenues, as well as a large-scale replacement of commercial loans with public budget loans facilitated a reduction in regions’ debt burden and related expenditures.
Key words: regions’ budgets, revenues of regional budgets, expenditures of regional budgets, intergovernmental fiscal transfers, regional debt.
JEL-codes: H61, H62, H63, H71, H72, H74, H77.
Corporate Lending in January-October 2021
Sergey A. Zubov – Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
The economic recovery and the expected rise in interest rates are stimulating demand for corporate loans. The quality of the aggregate portfolio of corporate loans is improving: the average level of past-due debt is gradually decreasing; the level of profitability is moving up. At the same time, the increased banks’ propensity to risk amid ongoing macroeconomic turbulence requires increased attention of the regulator to the quality of the banks’ corporate portfolio and the adequacy of bank risk management.
Key words: Russian banking sector, corporate lending, Bank of Russia.
JEL-codes: D81, E58, G21, G38.
Development of Self-Employment in the Modern Labor Market
Andrey N. Pokida – Director of Center for Social and Political Monitoring of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Сandidate of Sociological Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Natalia V. Zybunovskaya – Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Inna A. Gazieva – Director at the Department of Academic Educational Initiatives, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Сandidate of Sociological Sciences, Associate Professor (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
The article presents the results of a 2021 sociological survey of the employed population. The purpose of the study was to identify the main trends related to the formation of the self-employed labor market, including an analysis of the respondents’ attitude to the tax regime «Self-employed tax» for individuals introduced in 2019. There is an increase in the attractiveness of the new tax regime for persons engaged in private practice, but about a third of its potential users do not want to participate in it yet.
The article was written on the basis of the RANEPA state assignment research programme.
Key words: labor market, private practice, self-employment, individual entrepreneurs, informal employment, tax on professional income, COVID-19 pandemic.
JEL-codes: J21, J28, J46.
Mortgage Lending in January-September 2021
Sergey A. Zubov – Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Сandidate of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
In Q3 2021, there was a decline in the volume of mortgage lending for the first time since the outbreak of the pandemic, due to an increase in interest rates, as well as changes in the terms of preferential state-supported mortgage programs. In the near future, in the absence of significant change from current trends in the economy and continued extension of state support for preferential programs, we should expect the restoration of sustainable growth in the mortgage market.
Key words: mortgage lending, subsidized mortgage programs, mortgage lending market overheating.
JEL-codes: E58, G21, G28.
Financing Higher Education Establishments’ R&D: Issues of Efficiency
Alexey A. Kovalenko – Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Anna O. Polushkina – Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Elena A. Polushkina – Deputy Director of Center of the Economics for Continuing Education of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
In recent years, higher education establishments (HEE) have been set the goal to facilitate jointly with scientific institutions a technological breakthrough and prepare a modern human resource base for the economy and social services. The government allocates substantial budget funds to support R&D carried out by HEE. However, the share of R&D funding in Russia is still insignificant and amounts on average to the mere 12% of HEE’s overall revenues.
Key words: higher educational institutions, academic science, research institutes, scientific research, R&D.
JEL-codes: I23, I25, H52, O32.
Survey of Current Business (October 2021 – January 2022)
Sergey P. Aukutsionek – Head of Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Andrey S. Yegorov – Senior Researcher of the Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Inessa A. Bachirova – Senior Researcher of the Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Stanislav V. Belyakov – Researcher of the Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
In October 2021, the indicators of purchase prices turned out to be the most worrying. The diffusion index of prices for purchased products increased by 6 points and reached 93% for the first time in seven years. The diffusion index of expected in three months changes of incoming prices reached 97%, which was a reiteration of the four months ago record, although previously we saw such high values mainly in 1993–1995. The indicators of employment, wages and orders decreased, but this decrease looks more like a correction after very high September values.
Key words: Russia, industry, industrial enterprises, price level, wages, employment, output, investment, indebtedness to banks, order-book level, stocks of finished products, capacity utilization rate, financial situation, production restrictive factors.
JEL-codes: D22, D24, G31, L23, P23.
Support through Entrepreneurship: International Experience and Opportunities for its Application in Russia
Vera A. Barinova – Head of International Laboratory for Research on Sustainable Development Problems Regionalism of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration; Head of Laboratory of Innovative Economics of the Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Ksenia V. Demidova – Junior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
The article highlights the directions of the foreign policy of employment support in crisis periods and outside of crises, compares the instruments of SME support in different countries. During the current crisis, popular measures of state support for business have become supporting the liquidity of companies and facilitating the maximum transfer of their activities to the digital mode. Russia needs to expand the areas of concessional lending or co-financing, step up assistance to SMEs to digitalize their activities.
The article was written on the basis of the RANEPA state assignment research programme.
Key words: employment support, small and medium entrepreneurship, anti-crisis policy.
JEL-codes: E24, O5.
Adaptive Capacity of Russian Industries during a Pandemic
Sergey V. Tsukhlo – Head of Business Surveys Department of the Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Estimates of the Adaptation Index of Russian industry for three industries, as an example, show the greatest adaptability to crisis situations by the food industry. Its adaptability decreased in 2021 compared to 2020. Adaptability indicators in 2021 improved in mechanical engineering and slightly worsened in light industry.
Key words: Russian industry, Adaptability Index by sectors, demand, stock of finished products, stock of materials, output, stuffing, financial and economic situation, pandemic.
JEL-codes: L16, L53, L60.
Russia’s Shares Market in 2021 and in Early 2022
Alexander E. Abramov – Head of Department for Analysis of Institutions and Financial Markets of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Andrey G. Kosyrev – Junior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Alexander D. Radygin – Chairman of the Scientific Council of the Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy; Director of the Institute of Mathematics and Information Technology Economics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Doctor of Economic Sciences, Professor (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Maria I. Chernova – Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
The trends of 2021 and the beginning of 2022 confirm the reputation of the stock market of Russian companies as one of the most profitable and volatile markets in the world. The involvement of millions of private investors in equity investments A new trend in its development was, who began to play a leading role in maintaining the liquidity and stability of the stock market. This creates new challenges for government regulation in terms of creating the necessary environment for the stability and information transparency of the domestic stock market and the security of investments in shares of domestic private savings.
Key words: Russian stock market, investment in shares, private investors.
JEL-codes: E22, G10, G11, G14, G15.
Key Rate of the Bank of Russia Has Hit Maximum Value since 2017
Alexandra V. Bozhechkova – Head of Monetary Policy Department of the Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy; Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Pavel V. Trunin – Head of Center for Macroeconomics and Finance of the Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy; Director of Center for Сentral Banks Studies of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Doctor of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
The key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation has been raised by 1 p.p. to 8.5% per annum. It has reached its maximum value since 2017. This is due to the acceleration of inflation on the back of the expansion of demand in the face of continuing problems with goods and services supply. By the end of November 2021, inflation in annual terms came to 8.4% and approached record values over the past 5 years. Given the inertia of inflation, it will remain above the target of 4% for a long time and will return to it no earlier than the end of 2022 – the beginning of 2023.
Key words: inflation, monetary policy, key rate, capital outflow, Bank of Russia.
JEL-codes: E31, E52, F31.
Retail Deposits in January-November 2021
Sergey A. Zubov – Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Сandidate of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Retail bank deposits in January-November 2021 increased slightly, their share in bank liabilities decreased. The factors of the slowdown were: the outflow of funds into the purchase of real estate due to the availability of mortgages; attractive conditions on the stock market; the growth of cash savings in the overall structure of savings; the introduction of a tax on interest on large deposits. Starting from Q2 2021, the tightening of the monetary policy of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation contributes to an increase in deposit rates, which in the near future can restore the attractiveness of bank deposits.
Key words: Russian banking sector, retail lending, debt burden indicator, macroprudential markups, Bank of Russia.
JEL-codes: D81, E58, G21.
Balance of Payments: Results of 2021
Alexandra V. Bozhechkova – Head of Monetary Policy Department of the Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy; Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Alexander Yu. Knobel – Head of Foreign Trade Department of the Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy; Director of Center for Foreign Trade Department of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration; Director of the Institute for International Economics and Finance, Russian Foreign Trade Academy, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Pavel V. Trunin – Head of Center for Macroeconomics and Finance of the Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy; Director of Center for Сentral Banks Studies of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Doctor of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
In 2021, according to preliminary estimates, the current account balance was more than three times higher than the previous year. In particular, the positive balance of Russia’s trade balance has increased significantly and hit record values due to the outstripping growth in the value of exports compared to imports. The net outflow of private sector capital in 2021 also went up, but to a lesser extent than could be expected based on the growth of geopolitical risks.
Key words: balance of payments, export, import, current account transaction, ruble exchange rate, outflow/inflow of capital, Bank of Russia.
JEL-codes: E58, E44, F32, F21, F31.
