State of Regional Budgets in 2022: May Forecast

Dmitrii Yu. Zemlianskii – Director of Centre of Spatial Analysis and Regional Diagnostics of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration; Researcher of the Faculty of Geography of Lomonosov Moscow State University, Ph.D. of Geographic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Vladimir V. Klimanov – Director of Centre for Regional Policy of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Doctor of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

In the context of current uncertainty, one of the possible options for short-term forecasting of the state of consolidated budgets of Russian regions is consensus forecasts based on the opinions of leading experts in the field. Measures taken by the RF Government to stabilize the financial situation have significantly improved experts’ expectations concerning the state of regional budgets in May 2022 as compared with March, but the overall forecast remains negative.

The expectations on the dynamics of tax and non-tax revenues, the volume of public debt increased, the expectations on the dynamics of expenditures remained at the same level, but the experts gave a more restrained forecast of the growth of inter-budgetary transfers. According to the experts’ forecasts, the most difficult situation will be in the regions of foreign business concentration, including the regions of automotive and metallurgy, in the metropolitan agglomerations.

Key words: regional budgets, forecast, expert survey.

JEL-codes: H68, H77, R58.