Regional Budgets in 2021: Safety Cushion has been Created
Alexander N. Deryugin – Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration; Senior Researcher of the Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
In 2021, the performance indexes of consolidated regional budgets (growth rates; total budget revenues and own tax plus non-tax revenues; nominal and real volumes of aggregate budget surplus) updated the all-time high of the last decade. In 2022, this will provide an opportunity to mitigate the effects of the crisis, and the reduction in the share of expensive commercial loans servicing will increase the debt sustainability of the regions against the backdrop of rising interest rates in the economy.
The structure of regional expenditures in 2021 remained stable, and its main changes were related to the completion of anti-crisis measures in 2020 and the reorientation of some expenditures to areas related to capital investments (housing and utilities sector and transport).
Key words: regions’ budgets, revenues of regional budgets, expenditures of regional budgets, intergovernmental fiscal transfers, regional debt.
JEL-codes: H61, H62, H63, H71, H72, H74, H77.
Survey of Current Business (December 2021 – March 2022)
Sergey P. Aukutsionek – Head of Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Andrey S. Yegorov – Senior Researcher of the Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Inessa A. Bachirova – Senior Researcher of the Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Tatyana V. Serzhantova – Senior Researcher of the Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
In December 2021, the share of enterprises in «good» or «normal» financial condition reached a 3-year maximum of 89%, which appeared to be almost a record of the past 30 years. The current index of prices for purchased products has fallen to the lowest level in the last 9 months, although it is still in the zone of high values by historical standards. The labor utilization rate has also reached a fairly high level – 95%. Meanwhile among the factors limiting production, the «shortage of qualified workers» rose to second place with a rating of 36%.
Key words: Russia, industry, industrial enterprises, price level, wages, employment, output, investment, indebtedness to banks, order-book level, stocks of finished products, capacity utilization rate, financial situation, production restrictive factors.
JEL-codes: D22, D24, G31, L23, P23.
Admission to Russian Universities in 2021
Tatyana L. Klyachko – Director of Center of the Economics for Continuing Education of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Doctor of Economic Sciences, Professor (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Galina S. Tokareva – Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Admission to universities financed from the federal budget increased in 2021. This was partly due to social reasons, thus, for instance, the intention to support the population in the period of coronacrisis. The growth was primarily typical of the state higher educational institutions, while private ones evidenced a decrease in the number of students admitted to budget-funded places. At the same time, there was a redistribution of budget admission in favor of regional universities.
Key words: higher educational institutions, state higher educational institutions, private higher educational institutions, admission to universities, coronavirus.
JEL-codes: I21, I22, I23, J24, R58.
Estimation of the Long-run GDP Growth Rate Using the TVP-ARX-SV Model
Ekaterina V. Malikova – Junior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Nikita D. Fokin – Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
The article solves a very important problem of estimation the long-term growth rate of Russian GDP. To do this, an autoregressive model with exogenous variables with time-varying parameters and stochastic volatility (TVP-ARX-SV) is used. Oil prices are used as the only exogenous variable. The advantage of this model is the possibility of obtaining not only a time-varying long-term growth rate, but also a time-varying oil price output multiplier. Thus, the model is devoid of any restrictions on the invariance of parameters over time. The estimated trajectory of the long-term growth rate is quite close to the results of other models estimated by other authors.
The article was written on the basis of the RANEPA state assignment research programme.
Key words: real GDP, oil prices, long-term growth rate, time-varying parameters.
JEL-codes: C32.
How to Reduce the Digital Divide in School Education
Alexey S. Tishchenko – Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Galina S. Tokareva – Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
In order to combat the spread of coronavirus infection, the educational process in schools is periodically carried out remotely using online platforms and electronic educational resources. Despite the set of measures taken, the education system faced significant difficulties in transferring the educational process to a remote mode. To a lesser extent, rural educational organizations turned out to be ready for distance learning; there was regional differentiation in terms of access to broadband Internet, the availability of computers and their use for educational purposes. The issues of organizing online learning, including ensuring equal opportunities in access to digital educational infrastructure, remain relevant.
The article was written on the basis of the RANEPA state assignment research programme.
Key words: school education, distance learning, digital divide.
JEL-codes: I21, I24.
Some Aspects of Monetary Policy Optimization
Dmitry N. Shults – Director of Macroeconomic Research, Infrastructure Economics Centre, PhD in Economics (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Zarina Е. Tsokolaeva – Leading Expert in Macroeconomic Research, Infrastructure Economics Centre (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
The article is devoted to possible directions of improving monetary policy in Russia. First, various variants of the targeting object are considered. Model studies on the optimization of monetary policy parameters indicate the need to target the most inflexible components of inflation, which make the greatest contribution to the loss of market efficiency. The technical aspects of the optimization of monetary policy based on the apparatus of general equilibrium models are considered. Finally, the issue of improving monetary policy through the transition to hybrid inflation targeting is considered.
Key words: monetary policy, monetary policy optimization, inflation targeting, hybrid inflation targeting.
JEL-codes: E52, E58.
Retail Lending in 2021
Sergey A. Zubov – Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Сandidate of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Despite the introduction of regulatory restrictions and interest rate hikes in H 2 2021, retail lending remained one of the fastest-growing segments of the banking market throughout previous year and contributed to growth in banking incomes. Amidst increased sanctions pressure, the government and the Central Bank will be forced again, as during the crisis caused by epidemiological reasons, to stimulate banks’ lending activities in order to support households. Should the international situation come back to normal and the economy stabilize, the RF CB may return to measures aimed at cooling the retail lending market.
Key words: Russian banking sector, retail lending, past-due debt, Bank of Russia.
JEL-codes: D81, E58, G21.
Federal Budget Execution in 2021
Ilya A. Sokolov – Head of Budget Policy Department of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration; Leading Researcher of the Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy; Director of the Institute of Macroeconomic Research, Russian Foreign Trade Academy, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
In 2021, the federal budget was executed with a small surplus, which is an important achievement after a deficit of 3.8% of GDP a year before. It became feasible owing to two factors: oil and gas revenues returned to the precrisis level in nominal terms, while non-oil and gas revenues saw sustainable growth.
Key words: federal budget, revenue, oil and gas revenues, non-oil and gas revenues, expenditure, taxes.
JEL-codes: H11, H50, H62, H63.
