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Kirill V. Rostislav – Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Yury Yu. Ponomarev – Head of Center for Spatial Economics of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration; Senior Researcher of the Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Darya M. Radchenko – Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

The paper presents a spatial simulation model covering 237 cities and towns in 76 subjects of the Russian Federation. The model describes the dynamics of the population and the number of enterprises in the cities, and also makes it possible to make medium-term forecasts with a high degree of accuracy. The work tested hypotheses about the impact on intercity migration and other socio-economic processes that determine the differences between the cities in average wages, the quality of urban environment and other factors, and also considered examples of the application of the model to assess the socio-economic effects of high-speed roads construction (on the example of the Sochi – Tuapse road) and the effects of the closure of city-forming enterprises in several single-industry towns.

The article was prepared in the framework of execution of state order by RANEPA.

Key words: simulation model, migration, cities, single-industry towns, infrastructure projects.

JEL-codes: C63, R12, R23, R32.