Regional Budgets Maintain Sufficient Financial Sustainability at the End of 7 Months of 2022

Alexander N. Deryugin – Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration; Senior Researcher of the Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

At the end of the first seven months of 2022, growth in revenues of the consolidated budgets of the RF regions was outpacing the growth in budget expenditures and the inflation rate, indicating that regions maintained a sufficient level of financial sustainability. As for the structure of expenditures, those expenditures on the national economy are increasingly replacing expenditures on national matters, education and culture. The federal center’s emergency measures aimed to replace regional commercial debt with budget loans contributed both to the reduction of debt servicing costs and to the general reduction of the risk of default on regional debt obligations.

Key words: regions’ budgets, revenues of regional budgets, expenditures of regional budgets, intergovernmental fiscal transfers, regional debt.

Assessment of the Level of Integration in the CIS+ Countries in 2010-2020

Maria O. Kazaryan – Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Against the background of the intensified confrontation between Russia and the West, the CIS+ countries (CIS, Georgia and Ukraine) faced a number of challenges and the choice of a development vector became the most acute. For a better understanding of the degree of interaction between the countries of the post-Soviet space with each other, the article provides an assessment of the level of integration in 2010–2020. based on the modified System of Indicators of Eurasian Integration of the Eurasian Development Bank (SIEI EDB).

The article was prepared in the framework of execution of state order by RANEPA.

Key words: CIS, EAEU, former republics of the USSR, regional economic integration, integration index.

JEL-codes: F1, F15, F17, F36, F47.

Youth Employment: Challenges and Trends

Elena A. Semionova – Leading Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Young people’s success in employment depends considerably on the standard of the chosen line of vocational training. A lack of jobs which is referred to by the youth as an employment problem points not only to the fact that the training of personnel does not meet regional economic needs, but in some cases to the redundancy of young specialists’ qualifications.

Key words: youth, employment, labor market, youth unemployment.

JEL-codes: J21.

International Development Assistance to Large Infrastructure Projects in the Countries of Central Asia

Yury K. Zaytsev – Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

The article examines the programs of international donors in the infrastructure development sector of the countries of Central Asia. The author points to the low level of investment in infrastructure development in the countries of the region and the importance of donor assistance directed to this sector. Despite geographic proximity and a common integration agenda with a number of countries, Russia is not the main donor in Central Asia. Russian projects are concentrated mainly in the energy sector and economic infrastructure in Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. The OECD countries and China remain the largest partners in the development of the states of the region.

The article was prepared as part of the research work of the state task of the RANEPA.

Key words: infrastructure projects, official development assistance, Central Asia, OECD countries, China, Russian Federation.

JEL-codes: F02, F21, F35.

Mortgage Lending in January-July 2022

Sergey A. Zubov – Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

The destabilization of the economic situation led to a decline in the volume of transactions on the mortgage market. The subsequent measures of the government and the Central Bank helped reducing market rates and partially restore activity at the market. The schemes of practically interest-free mortgages introduced by banks and developers against the backdrop of inflated housing costs may become a source of serious issues on the market.

Key words: mortgage lending, subsidized mortgage programs, mortgage lending market overheating.

JEL-codes: E58, G21, G28.

Estimates of Russia’s Trade Turnover with Major Partners in January-July 2022

Alexander S. Firanchuk – Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, PhD in Economics (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Alexander Yu. Knobel – Head of Foreign Trade Department of the Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy; Director of Center for Foreign Trade Department of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration; Director of the Institute for International Economics and Finance, Russian Foreign Trade Academy, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Trade data of Russia’s main partners point to a significant decrease in supplies of goods to Russia, starting from March 2022 ($16 billion, -36% down from 2021), reaching their lowest values in April ($13 billion, -48%) and the subsequent adjustment in May-June ($16–17 billion, -34%). In the second quarter, the decline in imports from «unfriendly» countries (-59%) was more pronounced than shipments from neutral countries (-14%). Preliminary data for July point to a possible recovery in imports (-14%) due to increased shipments from China (+22%). Estimates of exports point to the preservation of supplies of Russian goods at the level of $48–61 bln per month, which is much higher than the level of 2021. Comparative dynamics of supplies point to the redirection of exports from «unfriendly» countries to neutral markets since April 2022.

Key words: foreign trade, exports, imports.

JEL-codes: F10, F14.

Survey of Current Business (July-October 2022)

Sergey P. Aukutsionek – Head of Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Andrey S. Yegorov – Senior Researcher of the Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Inessa A. Bachirova – Senior Researcher of the Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Tatyana V. Serzhantova – Senior Researcher of the Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

In July 2022, the diffusion index of prices for purchased products decreased by another 2 percentage points and reached its lowest value in 2 years – 66%. The diffusion wage index looked rather optimistic (53%), which cannot be said about the diffusion index of output, which decreased by 21 percentage points over the month (37%). Approximately the same considerable decline – by 17 points – happened with the diffusion index of employment (41%). At the same time, the diffusion index of output/input prices ratio reached its historical maximum for 30 years of observation (49%).

Key words: Russia, industry, industrial enterprises, price level, wages, employment, output, investment, indebtedness to banks, order-book level, stocks of finished products, capacity utilization rate, financial situation, production restrictive factors.

JEL-codes: D22, D24, G31, L23, P23.

Social and Economic Situation in G20 Countries: Outlooks are Getting Worse

Urmat K. Dzhunkeev – Junior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Yury N. Perevyshin – Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Pavel V. Trunin – Head of Center for Macroeconomics and Finance of the Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy; Director of Center for Central Banks Studies of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Doctor of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Maria I. Chembulatova – Junior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Global economic growth rates keep slowing down with economic outlooks getting worse. In August, Moody’s lowered projections of G20’s growth rates to 2.5% in 2022. By Moody’s estimates, the Eurozone will be facing recession in 2023. The factors affecting the economic situation include an energy price shock, tightening of the monetary policy in developed countries, as well as a slowdown of China’s growth rates. In August, nine out of 15 central banks of G20 countries which target inflation held meetings on the monetary policy; the monetary regulators in the UK, South Korea, Brazil, Indonesia, Mexico, Australia and India raised interest rates, while Turkey and China cut them.

Key words: world economy, growth rates, forecast, monetary policy, Moody’s Agency.

JEL-codes: C53, C54, E52, E58.

Restoring Russian Imports Opportunities

Ivan L. Lyubimov – Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, PhD in Economics (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

In this work, the tools of the economic complexity theory are used to evaluate the possibilities of three mechanisms which are currently employed to soften sanction restrictions on Russian imports. These mechanisms include alternative imports, import substitution and parallel imports. The theory of economic complexity is more powerful when the first two mechanisms are evaluated and provides almost no guidance regarding parallel imports.

Key words: sanctions, alternative suppliers, import substitution, parallel imports.

JEL-codes: F17, F51, F52.