Impact of Sanctions on the Dynamics of the Russian Tourist Market
Daniil A. Sitkevich – Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Sofia E. Kuek – Junior Researcher of the Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy; Master’s Student in Economics of the EUSP (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
The article analyzes the consequences of the sanctions imposed in 2022 for the Russian hospitality industry. Based on official statistics, we conclude that before the sanctions were imposed, the Russian tourism industry demonstrated growth, which accelerated during the post-pandemic recovery. Data from a series of semi-structured interviews with the representatives of the hospitality industry showed that apart from the positive effects (associated with the reduced availability of outbound tourism), there are also negative effects of the sanctions and the ongoing military conflict. Current evidence suggests that, at this point, the positive effects of the sanctions outweigh the negative ones. However, some regions have already experienced a decrease in tourist traffic due to transportation restrictions, and the decline in industry productivity associated with the sanctions poses long-term risks to the hospitality industry.
The article reflects the results of research carried out as part of the research work of the state task of the RANEPA.
Key words: internal tourism, hospitality industry, sanctions, tourism product.
JEL-codes: R12, Z30, Z32.
Impact of Shortage and Excess of Labor and Capital on the Financial Situation of Industrial Enterprises in the Russian Federation (1993–2022)
Alexandra Ye. Batyaeva – Senior Researcher of the Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
The paper analyzes on the basis of survey statistics the financial situation of industrial enterprises in Russia depending on the staffing of production capacities and labor force in relation to the demand for their products.
It is shown that over the last three decades the breakdown of Russian enterprises by the degree of staffing with production resources has changed significantly: the share of the balanced group has increased with a simultaneous reduction in the share of overstaffed producers.
The study is based on the survey statistics of the Russian Economic Barometer for almost 30 years.
Key words: production capacity, labor force, financial condition of enterprises, demand, production factors, survey statistics.
JEL-codes: D22, D24.
Privatization Dynamics and State of Property Relations in 2022 – First Half of 2023
Georgy N. Malginov – Head of Ownership and Corporate Governance Department of the Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy; Leading Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: malginov@ieр.ru
Alexander D. Radygin – Chairman of the Scientific Council, Director of Center for Ownership and Corporate Governance of the Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy; Director of Institute of Economics, Mathematics and Information Technology, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Doctor of Economic Sciences, Professor (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
The article considers the main trends of the privatization process and related aspects of the state property policy in Russia in 2022 – early 2023.
Key words: privatization, privatization program, projected privatization plan, state property, Rosimushchestvo, sanctions.
JEL-codes: G32, G35, H82, L33.
Testing the Presence of the Hysteresis Effect Unemployment Dynamics in Russia
Andrey V. Zubarev – Head of the Laboratory of Applied Macroeconomic Research of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Valeriia A. Tadei – Junior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
The Russian labor market has its own specifics, one of its distinctive features being the gradual decline in unemployment over the past two decades. The coronavirus pandemics and the economic sanctions of 2022 were expected to cause a significant increase in unemployment in Russia. Despite this, the indicators of 2023 turn out to be record low: in January 2023, the share of unemployed officially reached 3.6%. If the absence of the predicted reduction in employment due to sanctions can be explained by the fact that the majority of companies wishing to leave the market continued to work in some way without making significant cuts, the impact of other shocks on the labor market is also interesting to study, since it can contribute to the development of macroeconomic policy measures including the minimization of the consequences of crises.
In this paper, we will consider a model that allows us to determine changes in unemployment rates in the long term in response to various endogenous shocks. The result of the work is the confirmation of the hysteresis effect existence in unemployment dynamics in Russia.
The article was prepared as part of the state assignment research programme of the RANEPA under the President of the Russian Federation.
Key words: hysteresis, unemployment, capital, productivity, VECM.
JEL-codes: C32, E24, J64.
Rules and Consequences of the Digital Ruble Adoption
Sergey M. Drobyshevsky – Scientific Director of the Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, Doctor of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Еlena V. Sinelnikova-Muryleva – Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Сandidate of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
The digital ruble law, which is coming into force, essentially means the emergence of a new form of money in Russia. This is the Central Bank’s digital ruble, intended for mass use by households and businesses. In this regard, it is important to assess the features, advantages and, at the same time, limitations of using the digital ruble, as well as the implications for the banking sector.
Key words: digital ruble, transactions with digital ruble, advantages and disadvantages of the use of the digital ruble.
JEL-codes: E42, E58, G20.
Risks of Russia’s Inclusion in the FAFT «Black» or «Grey» List
Aleksandra A. Koval – Researcher, Deputy Head of the Russian Center for Competence and Standards Analysis, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration; Researcher, Head of the «Russia-OECD WABT» Club, Institute of International Economics and Finance of the Russian Foreign Trade Academy (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Antonina D. Levashenko – Researcher, Head of the Russian Center for Competence and Standards Analysis, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
In the context of unfriendly policies of a number of foreign countries towards Russia, there are risks of inclusion of the country in the FATF «black» or «gray» lists. Inclusion of a jurisdiction in such lists implies the need to conduct enhanced due diligence procedures in case of transactions with its residents and has a significant negative impact on capital inflows to such a country. If Russia was to be included in one of the FATF lists, a reduction in Russian foreign trade of up to 10% could be expected.
Key words: FATF, AML, FATF blacklist, FATF greylist.
JEL-codes: F51, F53, F55, K33.
Survey of Current Business (May-August 2023)
Sergey P. Aukutsionek – Head of Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Andrey S. Yegorov – Senior Researcher of the Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Inessa A. Bachirova – Researcher of the Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Tatyana V. Serzhantova – Researcher of the Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
In May 2023, the level of capacity utilization rate reached 90% – the maximum value in REB in the entire history of observations since December 1991. In one percentage point from the maximum was the value of the labor utilization rate – 97%. In general, many indicators surveyed by the REB in May looked quite optimistic, for example, the diffusion wage index amounted to 61%. The only exception was the diffusion employment index, which fell by 15 percentage points per month to 44%. The most optimistic forecast was the diffusion index of the financial condition expected in three months, which reached 63% – the maximum value in the REB’s polls over the past 10 years.
Key words: Russia, industry, industrial enterprises, price level, wages, employment, output, investment, indebtedness to banks, order-book level, stocks of finished products, capacity utilization rate, financial situation, production restrictive factors.
JEL-codes: D22, D24, G31, L23, P23.
Balance of Payments in Q2 2023
Alexandra V. Bozhechkova – Head of Monetary Policy Department of the Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy; Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Alexander Yu. Knobel – Head of Foreign Trade Department of the Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy; Director of Center for Foreign Trade Department of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration; Director of the Institute for International Economics and Finance, Russian Foreign Trade Academy, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Pavel V. Trunin – Head of Center for Macroeconomics and Finance of the Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy; Director of Center for Central Banks Studies of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Doctor of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
At the end of Q2 2023, the current account surplus of the balance of payments fell 14-fold compared to Q2 2022 as a result of a decrease in the value of exports and an increase in the value of imports. At the same time, the financial account deficit was formed as a result of the outstripping increase in foreign assets compared to the growth of foreign liabilities. The weakening of the ruble in Q2 2023 was facilitated by a decline in the trade balance and a reduction in the share of net sales of foreign exchange by the largest exporters in the total volume of exports.
Key words: balance of payment, exports, imports, current account, ruble exchange rate, outflow/inflow of capital, Bank of Russia.
JEL-codes: E58, E44, F32, F21, F31.
