Secondary Employment of the Working Population in the Modern Labor Market
Andrey N. Pokida – Director of Center for Social and Political Monitoring of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Sociological Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Natalia V. Zybunovskaya – Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Ivan A. Pokida – Postgraduate Student of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
The article presents the results of a sociological survey of the employed population, conducted in 2022. The purpose of the study was to analyze current changes in the Russian labor market related to the prevalence of secondary employment among the working population and its impact on their social well-being. Over the past twenty years, there has been a decrease in the prevalence of secondary employment among workers. Secondary employment is often accompanied by labor activity without official registration.
The article was written on the basis of the RANEPA state assignment research programme.
Key words: secondary employment, moonlighting, labor market, private practice, employees, informal employment.
JEL-codes: J21, J28, J46.
Estimation of Uncertainty: Revisions of Russian GDP on History
Artur R. Sharafutdinov – Graduate Student of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration; Economist of the Monetary Policy Department, Bank of Russia (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
The article is devoted to estimating the uncertainty parameters of Russian GDP on history, that arises as a result of revisions and refinements of data over time. A brief review of the reasons for the revisions allows us to form an understanding of their necessity and importance. For analysis, it is assumed that uncertainty decreases over time and occurs systematically, which is reflected in heteroscedasticity in the form of a decrease in the standard deviation of revisions over time and in autocorrelation in the form of a dependence of revisions within a single publication. Estimation is performed using a parametrized covariance matrix using the Cunningham method.
As an example of visualizing uncertainty in data, fan charts are presented in the work. One of the applications of historical uncertainty estimation is the ability to calibrate parameters to filter true GDP values, as well as the ability to refine forecast uncertainty.
Key words: Russian GDP revisions, GDP uncertainty parameters, vintage data analysis, fan chart plotting.
JEL-codes: C13, C30, C65.
Survey of Current Business (October 2022 - January 2023)
Sergey P. Aukutsionek – Head of Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Andrey S. Yegorov – Senior Researcher of the Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Inessa A. Bachirova – Researcher of the Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Tatyana V. Serzhantova – Researcher of the Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
In October 2022, the level of the capacity utilization rate reached its maximum value for the entire history of observations – 89%. The level of the labor utilization rate was also quite high – 95% – which is in the top three «highs» within 30 years. The level of stocks of unsold finished products, if we take the normal level as 100%, had been declining for the third month in a row and reached in October 2022 a rather low value for itself – 76%. Whereas the level of orders increased by considerable 10 points within month and reached 105% – the highest value since 1991. The share of enterprises in «good» or «normal» financial condition was 90%, which is the best result of this year, and it was higher only once – in December 2018. The share of enterprises that have no debt to banks and are not expected to have one in the next three months reached 51% – the maximum for 2 years.
Key words: Russia, industry, industrial enterprises, price level, wages, employment, output, investment, indebtedness to banks, order-book level, stocks of finished products, capacity utilization rate, financial situation, production restrictive factors.
JEL-codes: D22, D24, G31, L23, P23.
Russian-American Trade and Economic Relations Prospects under Impact of Sanctions
Knyaz M. Bagdasaryan – Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
The United States is traditionally Russia’s leading trade and economic partner, primarily in the technological and investment spheres. However, the sanctions imposed by the United States on the Russian Federation in 2022 had a negative impact on the entire complex of trade and economic relations between the two countries. This situation requires adapting Russia’s trade policy to the new conditions of activity in the U.S. market.
The article was prepared as part of the research work of the state task of the RANEPA.
Key words: trade in goods and services, Russian Federation, sanctions, United States of America, technology transfer.
JEL-codes: F02.
Industrial Production Dynamics in January-October 2022
Andrey S. Kaukin – Acting Head of the Scientific Direction «Real sector» of the Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy; Head of Department for System Analysis of Sectorial Markets of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Eugenia M. Miller – Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
In January-October 2022 industrial production demonstrated sluggish growth. The main contribution was made by the food industry, textile and garment production, metallurgy, and machine-building. The growth, among other things, was due to the replacement of foreign brands with domestic products and/or an increase in demand for products used by the regional population that bordered the zone of a special military operation.
Key words: industry, sectors of the economy, mining industry, manufacturing industries, Rosstat, sanctions.
JEL-codes: L16, L6, L7, L8, L9.
Dynamics and Structure of Production: Adaptation to New Realities
Olga I. Izryadnova – Head of Structural Policy Department of the Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy; Leading Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Marina A. Kovaleva – Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Increasing orientation to the domestic market is supported by the state financial and economic measures and active adaptation of the Russian business to the new realities of foreign economic, transport and logistics interactions.
The formation of new transport routes and alternative markets has led to the stabilization of the situation in the extraction of minerals. In the manufacturing industries, the dynamics is determined by the nature of distribution of shocks by type of activity and mechanisms of adaptation of production and technological processes to the new configuration of materials, components, investment goods and technologies markets. The positive contribution of construction and agriculture restrains the influence of negative factors on the economic dynamics. The center of economic policy is to balance production and the availability of common and critical imports to the aggregate demand of the domestic market.
Key words: industry, domestic demand, external demand, anti-crisis measures, inflation.
JEL-codes: E22, E31, O40.
Impact of Positive and Negative Income Shocks on Household Consumption
Anastasia D. Petaykina – Junior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
The paper analyzes the impact of positive and negative income shocks on household consumption as part of checking the reasons for non-fulfillment of classical consumption theories. The analysis is carried out using data for the period from 2006 to 2019 for individual Russian households available in the RLMS HSE.
The regression of changes in consumption in response to positive and negative changes in income is estimated with the inclusion of the existence of liquidity constraints. The various specifications of the model argue in favor of the existence of liquidity constraints as the reason for the non-fulfillment of the permanent income hypothesis.
The article was written on the basis of the RANEPA state assignment research programme.
Key words: household consumption, income shocks, liquidity constraints, myopia, RLMS.
JEL-codes: C33, E21, P36.
Russian Exchange Rate Policy in Modern Economic Conditions
Alina M. Grebenkina – Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Andrey K. Lyamenkov – Associate Professor of the Faculty of Economics of Lomonosov Moscow State University, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Russian exchange rate policy has changed significantly over the past decades, which was manifested, among other things, in amount of use of certain policy instruments, depending on the exchange rate regime. The results of quantitative analysis show that during the period of inflation targeting, in comparison with the earlier period, there was an improvement in response of ruble to key interest rate and a decrease in dependence of ruble on the world commodity market. However, the macroeconomic shock, happened in the end of February 2022 had a significant impact on both exchange rate policy and sensitivity of exchange rate to its factors.
In context of unbalanced influence of balance of payments items on the exchange rate, the effect of external and internal restrictions on cross-border capital movement and a pause in usage of usual monetary policy instruments, ruble exchange rate has become less interpretable indicator. Nevertheless, the authors believe that significance of ruble as an important parameter of monetary policy will remain as the acute phase of the economic crisis is overcome.
The article was written on the basis of the RANEPA state assignment research programme.
Key words: exchange rate factors, monetary policy, economic crisis.
JEL-codes: E58, F31, F32, G01.
