Consolidated Budgets of the Regions of the Russian Federation in 2022: Main Trends
Natalia V. Zubarevich – Main Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration; Professor of the Faculty of Geography of Lomonosov Moscow State University, Doctor of Geographic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Dmitrii Yu. Zemlianskii – Director of Centre of Spatial Analysis and Regional Diagnostics of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration; Researcher of the Faculty of Geography of Lomonosov Moscow State University, Ph.D. of Geographic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
The article provides an analysis of the execution of the consolidated budgets of the Russian Federation regions by the results of 2022. At the end of 2022, the situation with regional budgets worsened considerably due to a reduction in corporate income tax receipts against the background of continued spending growth. At the end of the year, budget revenues decreased in regions mainly specialized in metallurgy and ore mining, for which 2021 was an extremely profitable year. The stability of the income part of regional budgets was ensured by steady income from private income tax, property taxes and rental income from public and municipal ownership. According to the results of the year, the geographical desynchronization of the dynamic of tax and non-tax revenues and inter-budgetary transfers to the regions has been preserved. The growth of regional budget expenses outpaced the dynamics of incomes, which increases the risks of instability for 2023.
The article was prepared as part of the research work of the state task of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
Key words: Regional budgets, interbudgetary relations, tax and non-tax revenues, regional development.
JEL-codes: H61, H62, H63, H71, H72, H74, H77.
Survey of Current Business (December 2022 – March 2023)
Sergey P. Aukutsionek – Head of Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Andrey S. Yegorov – Senior Researcher of the Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Inessa A. Bachirova – Researcher of the Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Tatyana V. Serzhantova – Researcher of the Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
In December 2022, the diffusion index of wages increased by 9 percentage points and reached 71% – the highest value since 1993. The diffusion index of the order-book level added 10 points and equaled to 62% – maximum in the entire history of observations, although previously already achieved (for the last time in 2007). At the same time, the diffusion index of stocks of finished goods significantly decreased to 32%, which is very close to the minimum value in the entire history of observations. The three-month expectations of employment, wages and order-book level looked quite optimistic, which cannot be said about a similar indicator of output.
Key words: Russia, industry, industrial enterprises, price level, wages, employment, output, investment, indebtedness to banks, order-book level, stocks of finished products, capacity utilization rate, financial situation, production restrictive factors.
JEL-codes: D22, D24, G31, L23, P23.
Trends in International Migration in Russia in Fall 2022
Igor A. Efremov – Researcher of the Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
The indicators of registered migration growth of Russia’s population in the fall of 2022 approached their usual values, typical for the period 2012–2019. Although arrivals from most of Russia’s traditional migration donors decreased in the fall of 2022 compared to the same period in 2021, the increase in arrivals from Kyrgyzstan and especially Tajikistan fully compensated for this decrease. Due to the specifics of the accounting methodology, two significant migration flows of the Russian population were not included in the 2022 migration statistics: Ukrainian refugees to Russia and Russians who left the country in the fall during the period of partial mobilization. The scale of each of these flows probably reaches hundreds of thousands of people.
Key words: migration, international migration, unaccounted migration.
JEL-codes: J11, J61.
Assessing the Efficiency of Pilot Production in Industry
Yuliya L. Maslennikova – Assistant Professor in the Department of Industrial Logistics, Federal State Budgetary Educational Institution of Higher Education «Bauman Moscow State Technical University», Candidate of Technical Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Alla E. Brom – Professor in the Department of Industrial Logistics, Federal State Budgetary Educational Institution of Higher Education «Bauman Moscow State Technical University», Doctor of Technical Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
The paper is devoted to outlining approaches to assessing the efficiency of pilot production. The authors take production cycle time as a measure of production process efficiency. The paper considers the main reserves and areas of the production cycle reduction; it gives the ways of estimating the economic effect and efficiency of shortening the duration of the production cycle at large-scale and mass productions; the necessity of using other evaluation methods for pilot-scale production is substantiated, which is connected with its specifics. The article presents approaches to estimation which take into account factors of accelerated development of production and reduction of defects.
Due to the fact that pilot production is characterized by binding of a large volume of floating assets in unfinished production, the approach to estimation of the effect of release of floating assets under the conditions of reduction of production cycle is proposed. Finally, the potential advantages and disadvantages of maintaining a high inventory level in pilot production are described.
Key words: pilot production, economic effects, economic efficiencies, production cycle, work in progress, working capital.
JEL-codes: L23, C13, D24.
Improvement of Customs Value Control Mechanisms
Veronika G. Iordanova – Associate Professor of the Department of International Economic Cooperation of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Andrey R. Boiko – Graduate Student of the Department of International Economic Cooperation of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
The article reflects the main problems associated with the impact of transfer pricing on the state of tariff protection of the importing country. In connection with them there is a need to improve the effectiveness of customs authorities’ control over the reliable determination and declaration of the customs value of imported goods in the conditions of transnationalization of world commodity trade. Proposals on improvement of customs and tariff regulation of Russian imports in the circumstances of weakening protection of the domestic market due to participation of the countries of the Eurasian Economic Union in the World Trade Organization are formulated.
Key words: foreign economic activity, customs value, transnationalization, customs and tariff regulation, customs control.
JEL-codes: F02, F13, Z18.
Monetary Policy and Inflation in Early 2023
Yury N. Perevyshin – Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences, Associated Professor (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Pavel V. Trunin – Head of Center for Macroeconomics and Finance of the Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy; Director of Center for Central Banks Studies of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Doctor of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
The Bank of Russia has left the key rate unchanged at 7.5% per annum at the meeting on February 10, which coincided with the consensus forecast of analysts and expectations of the financial market. However, the Central Bank tightened the signal on further dynamics of the key rate as compared to the previous press-release, indicating that in case of strengthening of pro-inflation risks it will evaluate the expediency of the rate increase at the nearest meetings. The range of the regulator’s average expected value of the key rate in 2023–2024 was also raised by 0.5 p.p. The decision is conditioned by intensification of the inflationary pressure, growth of budget expenditures and deterioration of terms of foreign trade.
As of the end of January, the annual inflation rate (over the last 12 months) continued to slow down and amounted to 11.7%. However, consumer prices rose by 0.84% in January, which seasonally adjusted stands at 6.1% in annualized terms and significantly exceeds the average level of annualized inflation for Q4 2022. According to our forecast, by the end of 2023 inflation will stand at 6.6% year-on-year (YoY), which is close to the upper bound of the forecast of inflation of the Bank of Russia (5–7%).
Key words: inflation, inflation expectations, monetary policy, key rate, capital outflow, Bank of Russia.
JEL-codes: E31, E52, F31.
Banking Resources in 2022
Sergey A. Zubov – Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Challenging current economic situation resulted in the growth of interest rates (due to the key rate increase) and the problems in the stock market. These circumstances ensured growing attractiveness of short-term ruble instruments with fixed yields, which ended in the growth in the amount of funds in bank deposits of individuals and enterprises. The improved supervisory regulation by the Central Bank of Russia and its policy on establishing bank capital reserves ensured the stability of the domestic banking system during 2022. However, if necessary, the government and the Central Bank may resort to considering additional capitalization of banks by purchasing secondary offering of preferred shares at the NWF expense.
Key words: Russian banking sector, banking resources, banks’ customer base, households’ resources, corporate resources, Bank of Russia.
JEL-codes: E58, G21, G28.
Balance of Payments in Q4 2022
Alexandra V. Bozhechkova – Head of Monetary Policy Department of the Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy; Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Alexander Yu. Knobel – Head of Foreign Trade Department of the Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy; Director of Center for Foreign Trade Department of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration; Director of the Institute for International Economics and Finance, Russian Foreign Trade Academy, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Pavel V. Trunin – Head of Center for Macroeconomics and Finance of the Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy; Director of Center for Сentral Banks Studies of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Doctor of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
At the end of Q4 2022, the current account surplus decreased significantly compared to the previous quarter as a result of a decline in the value of exports of goods and services. At the same time, the financial account deficit, which includes reserve assets, also dropped substantially compared to Q1–Q3 2022 – mainly due to a decrease in the value of net purchases of foreign financial assets by the private sector. The current account squeeze led to a weakening of the ruble.
Key words: balance of payment, exports, imports, current account, ruble exchange rate, outflow/inflow of capital, Bank of Russia.
JEL-codes: E58, E44, F32, F21, F31.
