Trends of International Migration in Russia in H1 2023

Igor A. Efremov – Researcher of the Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.  

Indicators of registered net migration of the Russian population in long-term international migration in H1 2023 to the same period of 2022 decreased by around 20%, or 20,000 people, relative to the values characteristic of the years preceding the COVID-19 pandemic. From almost all major migration partners, the number of arrivals to Russia declined. Only the inflow of long-term migrants from Tajikistan increased noticeably but could not compensate for the overall drop. The number of participants in the program of resettlement of compatriots decreased by 1.7 times, the number of temporary residence permits initially issued went down by 2.2 times and 9% fewer residence permits were issued.

Key words: migration, international migration, long-term international migration, temporary residence permit, residence permit, compatriots resettlement program.

JEL-codes: J11, J61.

Diagnostics of the Level of Technological Sovereignty of Industry in Russia

Svetlana K. Kochina – Associate Professor of the Department of Theory and Methodology of Science, Belgorod State Technological University named after V.G. Shukhov, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Belgorod, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

As part of the state economic policy, as one of the key directions for the development of effective business activity, a strategy is being implemented to achieve and consolidate technological sovereignty in the country’s industries. This strategy makes it possible to protect domestic industrial enterprises from the aggressive actions of Western countries, ensure the production of necessary and high-quality goods, increase GDP, and improve the standard of living of the population.

The article examines the essence and factors of technological sovereignty, and also solves the problem of developing a diagnostic methodology for its level, taking into account the most important criteria that industries must meet.

Key words: industries, technological sovereignty, diagnostics.

JEL-codes: L16, L52, L60.

Digital Economy Development of Russia: The Current Status and Prospects

Yuriy M. Evstifeev – Student of the DBA Program of the Higher School of Corporate Governance, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Petrozavodsk, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

The digital economy is actively developing both in Russia and in the world. In recent years, this phenomenon has faced both accelerating and slowing trends in our country. The article examines the role of the digital economy and shows its rapid growth, but at the same time a limited impact on the social and economic development of Russia, as well the minor role of our country on a global field of the digital economy, based on a comparison of development indicators with other counties.

As a result, author proposed 3 potential ways for digital economy development in the future: digital autarky, a «turn to the East» and a focus on «day after tomorrow» technologies. The key success factors in any choice will be the correct vision of the digital transformation results, the government political will and the science and business willingness to be involved in development and implementation processes of the breakthrough solutions.

Key words: digital economy, information and communication technologies, gross domestic product, social and economic development, robotization.

JEL-codes: L16, L86, O11, O14.

Economic Feasibility of Solar Energy in Russia

Vera A. Barinova – Head of International Laboratory for Research on Sustainable Development Problems of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration; Head of Laboratory of Innovative Economics of the Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Kseniya V. Demidova – Intern of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

The authors of the article assess the economic feasibility of solar energy in Russian cities with a population of over 1 million people, and also offer several business models through which solar energy can be introduced in urban areas. The article uses the method of assessing the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) and the method of comparative analysis, provides an overview of international experience in the use of solar energy in cities. The authors also analyze the economic and social benefits of developing urban solar power plants.

According to the results of the study, the production of solar electricity on the roofs of all largest cities in Russia can be economically beneficial for electricity consumers in retail markets right now. At the same time, the development of solar energy will also contribute to solving the problem of increasing peak loads during heat waves, reducing the need for air conditioning in buildings, solving the problem of energy shortage, reducing greenhouse gas emissions, developing the production of domestic high-tech equipment, and increasing the attractiveness of Russian cities, especially for young people.

The article was written on the basis of the RANEPA state assignment research programme.

Key words: greenhouse gas emissions, renewable energy, solar energy, solar power plants, levelized cost of electricity (LCOE), grid parity.

JEL-codes: O13, R1, M2.

Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy in Different Economic Conditions

Olesya V. Polyakova – Junior Researcher at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

The article describes the international research experience of recent years in terms of assessing the impact of fiscal policy on the economy through the use of fiscal multipliers. It is shown how the effectiveness of fiscal measures differs depending on the phase of the economic cycle, the causes of economic fluctuations, the characteristics of households (preference for risk-free assets), the labor market (aging of the population, downward rigidity of wages), the monetary policy regime, the level of creditworthiness of the economy and a number of other parameters. Regarding the application of research results for the development of fiscal policy in modern Russia, the following recommendations can be given (to achieve maximum effect for the economy): stimulate supply, support the labor market. In addition, when conducting policy, it is necessary to take into account the degree of household debt.

The article is based on the findings of research conducted with financial support from the budget funds under the state assignment of the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation.

Key words: fiscal policy, fiscal multiplier, DSGE models, economic cycle.

JEL-codes: D58, E62, H30, H50, H60.

Survey of Current Business (July-October 2023)

Sergey P. Aukutsionek – Head of Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Andrey S. Yegorov – Senior Researcher of the Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Inessa A. Bachirova – Researcher of the Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Tatyana V. Serzhantova – Researcher of the Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

In July 2023, capacity utilization rate continued to remain at a record high level (90% – the second place in the entire history of the REB’s observations since December 1991). The same can be said about labor utilization rate (99% – the first place, but a reiteration of the June value). In general, many of the indicators assessed by the REB in July looked quite optimistic: the order-book level amounted to 102% of the normal monthly level, equated to 100 (second place). The diffusion index of employment added 13 points per month and amounted to 57%. The diffusion index of expenditures for equipment reached 44% – the highest value in the last 1,5 years. At the same time, it should be noted that the indices of input prices (both actual and anticipated) remain high.

Key words: Russia, industry, industrial enterprises, price level, wages, employment, output, investment, indebtedness to banks, order-book level, stocks of finished products, capacity utilization rate, financial situation, production restrictive factors.

JEL-codes: D22, D24, G31, L23, P23.

Retail Lending in January-August 2023

Sergey A. Zubov – Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

A relative stabilization of the financial and economic situation and growth in households’ disposable cash incomes have driven up retail lending volumes on the market. The shares of bad loans and overdue loans have remained consistently low, however, the quality of the overall loan portfolio still causes the regulator’s concern. As a consequence, the Central Bank has to take measures aimed at cooling the consumer lending market to prevent a further risk buildup.

Key words: Russian banking sector, retail lending, past-due debt, Bank of Russia.

JEL-codes: D81, E58, G21.

Inflation Risks Have Led to a Sizable Increase in the Key Rate

Yury N. Perevyshin – Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Pavel V. Trunin – Head of Center for Macroeconomics and Finance of the Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy; Director of Center for Central Banks Studies of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Doctor of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

On September 15, the Bank of Russia raised the key rate by 100 bps to 13.0% per annum, which was the third consecutive meeting that ended with a tightening of monetary policy. Since July 21, the rate had been raised by 550 bps. In addition, a rather tight signal was given on the further trajectory of monetary policy and the published forecast on the rate allows its increase by another 100 bps in October.

In August, annual inflation (over the last 12 months) accelerated to 5.2% with the consumer price level rising by 0.28% in August, which seasonally adjusted amounts to 10.0% in annualized terms. In July-August, the price growth for non-food products and foodstuffs with the exception of fruit and vegetables accelerated, which was, among other things, a result of the ruble exchange rate pass-through that fell by almost 30% since the beginning of the year. According to our estimates, annual inflation will continue to accelerate and will amount to 6.5–7% year-on-year by the end of the year. A steady slowdown in annual inflation will commence only from mid-2024 and by the end of 2024 it will drop to 5–6%.

Key words: inflation, inflation expectations, monetary policy, key rate, Bank of Russia.

JEL-codes: E31, E52, F31.